I can’t blame Stu Rothenberg for bitching about a polling firm that won’t show its work, but I think he’s just annoyed that polling keeps coming out that doesn’t look good for Republican Senate candidates and governors. In the end, Rothenberg doesn’t even really doubt that the race in Montana has grown closer and he lists it as a Toss-Up/Tilts Republican race, which is maybe even a little more of a pessimistic assessment than is warranted by the polling. I’d say that Montana Leans Republican right now, and the only toss-up part of it is that a lot can change between now and November.
A look at the latest polls shows Gov. Scott Walker in real trouble in Wisconsin, Gov. Rick Scott trailing in Florida, Udall and Hickenlooper up narrowly in Colorado, Sen. Kay Hagan up in North Carolina, Gov. Andrew Cuomo up by 37 points in New York, Michelle Nunn crushing David Perdue in Georgia, Rep. Gary Peters up by nine in Michigan, Mary Landrieu up in Louisiana, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen comfortably ahead in New Hampshire. People have already written obituaries for Gov. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, and the Republican governors of Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, and Michigan aren’t looking like they’re in too great a shape, either. The last poll out of Maine has Democrat Mike Michaud win a narrow lead in a three-way race.
The news isn’t all good. Some races are scarily close, for example, the Senate races in Iowa, Arkansas, and Colorado. But only in Arkansas does an incumbent look to be in truly serious danger. Unless these races all tilt against the Democrats in the end, the GOP is on course for a galactically bad election night.
This is not the same kind of polling data that I was looking at in 2010. In 2010, the polling data was so consistently bad that I almost went insane. I could see that shellacking coming from a million miles away and I couldn’t believe that the “professional left” was stuck on infighting instead of girding their loins for battle. This year is different. What I’m seeing is consistently positive poll numbers. Some places I’d like to see bigger leads, but there’s also polling out of places like Virginia, California, New York, and Pennsylvania that is just astoundingly bad for the Republicans. A party can’t be losing governor’s races by 30 or 40 points, or Senate races in swing states by 25 points. The Democrats, meanwhile, have candidates that are polling ahead in states like North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida.
I’m still concerned about weak economic growth, although I think the worst of the slump ended with the cold winter. The president’s approval ratings are a bit of a drag, but there’s a good chance that they can improve.
Finally, I don’t want to get into skewed polls territory, but I think there is a possibility that the pollsters are going to miss some likely voters this time around. I don’t fault their methodology. After all, Democratic participation in the primaries has been down, and down a lot more than Republican participation. But I think this data is an artifact of the Republicans having more competitive primary contests than the Democrats. The real work is being done behind the scenes with the Democrats’ The Arbor Project and the DNC’s Voter Expansion Project. It’s not like the party hasn’t known about its midterm turnout problem.
The aggregate of polls is probably going to be very accurate, but I think there is a chance that the Democrats can do better at turning out the vote this time around, and so there is the potential for them to consistently outperform the polls. At the very least, I think it’s more likely that they will outperform than underperform.
I’m still optimistic. I’ll let you know if I see some real warning signs.
Update [2014-7-23 18:28:22 by BooMan]: Okay, things don’t look that bright in Montana.