Ed is correct to note that the current war fever is reminiscent of 2002, although there are some big differences. For one, the clamor for war against the Islamic State terrorist organization is coming mostly in visceral reaction to actual beheading videos and actual, fresh, atrocities carried out in Syria and Iraq. The administration didn’t concoct this situation or cherry-pick the intelligence. They aren’t complaining about atrocities that occurred 15 years earlier.
The threat posed by the Islamic State to American hostages, religious and ethnic opponents, and our facilities in Iraq are not hypothetical. They are very real. Whether the organization presents a direct “existential” threat to our homeland is a matter of dispute within the Intelligence Community, but as Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently said, they are an “imminent threat to every interest we have,” adding, “This is beyond anything that we’ve seen.”
Perhaps Hagel employed a bit of hyperbole there, but he’s right that the growth of the Islamic State threatens American interests even if they don’t necessarily threaten us (presently) inside our borders.
The question is, is there anything we can do about these threats that won’t make matters worse, that won’t come with unacceptable risks and costs, that will be able to work in a timely manner and have an end game, and that can sustain the support of our allies, Congress, and the people?
To date, the conflict in Syria (where the Islamic State originated) has not presented positive answers to the above questions. At the most basic level, the conflict in Syria has had a sectarian Sunni/Shia divide almost from the beginning. When Bashar al-Assad claimed that his opponents were terrorists, it was more true that we at first wanted to admit. In a reverse of the demographics of Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Syria is a Sunni-majority country run by a Shia-splinter sect known as the Alawites. Opposition to Assad began as an ecumenical affair, but it didn’t take long for the Sunni powers to realize there was an opportunity to win control of the country for their sect. This made it incredibly complicated for U.S. foreign policy leaders to actively side with Assad’s opponents because it would have been seen as a deep betrayal in Baghdad and greatly complicated negotiations with Teheran over their nuclear program. We did not want to take a side in a sectarian war both on principle and for practical reasons. This ambivalence greatly irritated our Sunni allies in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf Emirates, but it was better than the alternative.
What has changed is that these same Sunni allies who bear most of the responsibility for the rise of the Islamic State are now quite alarmed by what they have created. As far back as February, the Saudis replaced Prince Bandar as their go-to guy for arming the Syrian rebels. In June, some of the top Saudi clerics issued fatwas banning travel to Syria to wage jihad. And just on Monday, the Saudis arrested 17 men for attempting to travel to Iraq and gave them long prison sentences. Meanwhile, the governor of the Sunni stronghold of Anbar Province (home of Falluja) came out against the Islamic State and begged for American assistance in resisting them.
In Baghdad, the government of Maliki stopped accusing the Kurds of harboring terrorists and annexing territory and agreed to send them ammunition. Maliki agreed to step down as prime minister and Haider al-Abadi, a man known for less sectarian tendencies, took over with the mission to form a coalition government. Every government in the region, regardless of sectarian makeup, agreed to al-Abadi’s appointment.
So, what’s going on here is that what had been an escalating sectarian war that had ripped both Syria and Iraq apart is now becoming something a little different and, perhaps, more promising.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are at least to some degree on the same page about who is in charge in Baghdad and what to do about the Islamic State. The government in Baghdad is reconciled with the Kurds for the time being, at least for the purposes of fighting the Islamic State.
This is the context in which President Obama has sent envoys to the region to develop a plan. To see if a plan can be concocted that meets the above criteria, the president, more than anything, needs time. And that’s the best way to understand the bellicose statements from Vice-President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry. In saying that we will not tolerate these beheadings and will chase the murderers to the “Gates of Hell,” Biden and Kerry are assuaging the bloodlust aroused by these killings and keeping the Democrats from creating distance from the administration in their impatience for decisive action. The administration will do something, but they aren’t ready to do anything, yet. Unlike the last administration, this administration strives to understand the complicated world as it is and not make commitments based on delusions that have no chance of success.
So, give them some time. It’s what they need, and they’ll be less likely to screw up if they have the space and time to think.
Phooey. ISIS is quite literally on the other side of the world and no substantial threat to us at all. 9/11 happened only because Bush ignored (for whatever reason) warnings that something was up. (Beside which, 9/11 was very far from an existential threat).
ISIS is a threat to a lot of locals, notably Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which are putatively our allies and which have all helped create ISIS. They are perfectly capable of handling it, and they’re responsible for cleaning up their own mess. They’re just trying to use their influence to get us to do their work for them.
I know Israel and Saudi Arabia have outsize influence in our government, but I think that makes even more important we stand up to their local lackeys for once and make them, for once, take some responsibility for their messes.
ISIS is a threat to the USofA because if they end up taking Mecca and Medina the whole Oil industry as it stands is in deep trouble. Check out the history, Wahab History
This isn’t the first time for this ideology, it took an Egyptian army under the Ottoman’s in 1818 to stop it before. It has to be stopped by Sunni, if Shia try the salafi recruiting will be impossible to stop. The people who believe this stuff are scattered all around Saudi Arabia and have just been waiting to take over.
Well, first of all Mecca and Medina are on the west side of the Arabian peninsula and nowhere near the main oil fields. In any case, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have plenty of firepower to handle ISIS and if the oil industry feels threatened let them pay for it. We’ve bled enough for those leeches (and others have bled much more).
That wasn’t what I was saying. The purest Wahabi ideologues who live in and are all over Saudi Arabia are the main danger. If they join the ISIL/caliphate because they believe it is the purest form of Wahab/Salafi and oppose the house of al-Saud and its westernization, it will be civil war in SA. In this kind of war, the military can’t be counted on because it is riddled through with these people. There are a ton of people in SA that don’t like the modernization of current regime and would join the Jihad.
The Saudi’s recently said that if we don’t stop ISIL it would hurt us. That part “may” be true, but certainly the royal family of SA should be worried.
Also, with al-Quedda being somewhat marginalized by ISIL there is a real danger that the Pakistani Sunni (with the bomb) which have been infected with Wahabism could be a real mess as well.
So the principal global sponsors of Wahabism need to be saved (by us) from….Wahabism? Talk about the tail wagging the dog (or the dog chasing his own tail).
How many times does the House of Saud get to shit the bed while drunk and have some maid come in and clean up their shit?
Do we demand that they stop puffing the Wahabi shit if we save their ass again? Do we demand anything?
I agreed Saudi Wahabis are a significant threat in that they could take a lot of oil offline (not that that would be all bad, given global warming). But bombing the guys they’ve funded in Iraq and Syria isn’t going to hurt them. If anything, it helps them by giving them an enemy to unite against.
The Saudis need to clean house internally to fix that problem. And having ISIS running amok will actually help that, both by focusing the attention of their leadership on the problem, and by showing the populace and the swayable how bad these fundamentalists are.
Absolutely false!
The ISIS or ISIL and now the Islamic State (establishing a caliphate from Iraq across to Syria) was established in Anbar province in March 2003.
○ How ISIS Got Oxygen In Syria and Matured in Iraq
○ Dabiq: What Islamic State’s New Magazine Tells Us about Their Strategic Direction, Recruitment Patterns and Guerrilla Doctrine | Jamestown |
Sorry I can’t expand, gotta run!
Yes, I suppose you can argue for an Iraqi origination, if you want to ignore how they came to be in Syria.
The President and VP don’t have ownership in Haliburton.
Great post. I also have to say that at times like these I really love my president. I also think that the more Obama pursues this type of measured, intelligent strategy, the more it sets a precedent that will be harder for somebody like Clinton to break.
Agreed, good post. I hope you’re right about handcuffing Hillary. Not sure if it’s me or her, but she scares me more now than in 2008.
Many of the academics, tankers, and journalists I follow now have been bitten by the interventionist bug. For anyone with the same problem or in need of more ammunition, here are some thoughtful articles supporting how our FP is be handled. A lot of good information here.
http://warontherocks.com/2014/08/dont-bs-the-american-people-about-iraq-syria-and-isil/#_
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/punditry-presidency-article-1.1921882
http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/actually-obama-does-have-a-strategy-in-the-mi
ddle-east/379368/?single_page=true
Don’t often link Friedman but this one is pretty good.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/opinion/thomas-friedman-what-are-we-really-dealing-with-in-isis.ht
ml?smid=nytcore-iphone-share&smprod=nytcore-iphone&_r=0
It’s just that once you bomb the crap out of a place, you foreclose a whole lot of other options. If you’re going to jump the Grand Canyon, you better figure out where you’re going to land before the clear the rim of the canyon, because you can’t do it in two jumps.
No matter what else we try, and take heart warmongers, we can always send out the bombers if we get too pants-wettingly scared.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Kuwait, and the gulf states seem like they have much more of an interest in Iraq and Syria.
So, we need to use our weapons and ordinance for what reason, exactly?
How about we use our satellites to help the countries out that are actually threatened, while we limit the amount of American flags are flying around dropping bombs on people.
What, you aren’t persuaded by Hagel’s bleating that IS implicates “every one of our [unspecified] interests”?
The catalogue of our interests must be oil, oil and oil. And Israel’s continued colonial expansion, apparently. Everything Arab is an “existential threat” to our so-called ally. And no amount of Israeli nuclear warheads is protection enough…
Israel is one thing. But how much more evidence do you need, after the events of the last more than a decade, that the Arab world has got some very serious problems that have little or nothing to do with Israel?
So why should Israel’s Master (or are we Israel’s puppet?) keep stepping all over the middle east accomplishing…chaos?
It all doesn’t matter. I’m sure we’re going to go and kill some browns and poors soon enough.
I just wish we could be honest.
American Interests is a cowardly euphemism for EMPIRE.
American Exceptionalism is a cowardly euphemism for WE ARE THE LAW.
Don’t fret. I’m not in need of a fainting couch. Just annoyed with the cognitive dissonance of 90%+ of the American population.
We, and especially the Bushes, have made things a lot worse. But if America and Israel were gone tomorrow, they’d still have most of the problems, because the biggest causes of them are OIL and RELIGION. Everybody wants oil, and everybody over there’s got religion.
listen to the Vijay Prashad interview I linked to below on this
From your comment I’m assuming he’s saying that we can’t go and do it alone (alone being us and a few other white European countries).
I think we should provide satellite and other intelligence, and we OF COURSE have special forces all over the fucking place over there. But using our bombs and bullets? Great, more freedom from the end of a B52. Just what the mideast needs right now.
I’m going on reports from the White House and what ME commentators (Juan Cole, for example) have said. Obama says upfront that he’s working on a coalition for this. Juan Cole wrote, some months back, that it’s an opportunity to do something constructive about the mess Bushco left in Iraq. listen to the 20 minute clip from the Brian Lehrer show that I linked before for a discussion of how regional interests might be involved. Political scientists use the term “non-hegemonic [leadership] for the role Obama advances for the USA; it’s generally misunderstood by the media and not popular with weapons manufacturers, Libya is an instance.
If it’s not popular with the death merchants, than it’s probably a lot better than anything else that is possible.
Is Erdogan actually alarmed?
Good question. What’s the evidence of it? Where are the Turkish mechanized infantry brigades and tactical air support? Why are the US flyboyz the go-to guys for these ME missions?
Prashad talks about Turkey in link I posted; says both Jordan and Turkey necessary to workable strategy, fascinating, as I said
Brian Lehrer hosted today, Vijay Prashad, Prof of International Studies (Trinity College) and author of Arab Spring, Libyan Winter. His discussion of IS situation fascinating
http://www.wnyc.org/story/defining-isis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=%24%7Bfeed%7D&utm_
campaign=Feed%3A+%24%7Bbl%7D+(%24%7BBrian+Lehrer%7D
Military intervention is America’s crack cocaine of the past 60 years. Talk about an opioid, ha-ha. As we can see by the rising demands that we “do something!” about a vicious terror organization that was the product of some asinine decisions by the Sunni powers of the this region. All of whom spend a substantial amount of their budgets on military hardware and soldiers and thus have plenty of assets to deal with this threat (if they are really concerned about IS). Plus, Iran also has an interest in military cooperation to defeat IS, as you observe.
Situations like the rise of the Sunnis and the IS Frankenstein monster are a perfect experiment in the viability of American non-intervention as a global policy. It’s pretty clear that the US foreign policy establishment has no use for taking American military power largely off the table, no matter how much it may have failed as a decision tool in the recent past. And Senators Tweedledum and Tweedledee, McStooge and Graham (as mouthpieces of “conservative” dogma), can think of no other reason for being senators than advocating the use of the American military wherever a plane can be refueled and recon troops landed.
They (and a great many Americans still) simply cannot imagine a situation where US forces aren’t the sole answer to global conflicts, most certainly in the Middle East, which I guess is seen as our “backyard”. Or gas station. Because Saudi oil, and “Do you want (insert Frankenstein monster of the moment here) to control Saudi oil!?” End of argument and story. Repeat as needed, decade after fucking decade. (Actually, I think it’s been a regional disaster having the House of Saud control Saudi oil….)
But from a non-interventionist standpoint, Obama can take all the “time” he wants to decide what “to do”. The likelihood is that there will indeed be a conclusion that the US military is the only answer and will somehow save the day if only it is “properly deployed”—despite all evidence to the contrary.
Finally, where’s the accountability for the Saudis and Turks and the other Dr. Frankensteins here? Talk about moral hazard….
Libya?
Well, how much did WE actually do to Qaddafi forces there? Much of the bombing was done by the French with us doing supply side, if I remember right. But military types say the desert there is such that it was like shooting fish in a barrel, and unlikely to be replicated.
Certainly some (many?) Libyan civilians were saved from being killed by Qaddafi’s brigades. But the country is now seen as a failed state, so the long term benefit of Western military intervention seems questionable.
US forces suppressed Gadhafi’s anti-aircraft system with cruise missile shock and awe and PR bigfooting that backfired. President Obama dialed them back. There after the French did most of the air strikes and US sent in cruise missiles to selected targets, the most controversial were direct attacks on Gadhafi’s family with cruise missiles (that cause collateral civilian deaths in the neighborhood).
The air operation was almost exclusively (the direct assault on Gadhafi the exception) against stores of heavy equipment that Gadhafi either had put into the field or left in storage to prevent them from being hit. And in the siege of Misrata, hits on Gadhafi artillery positions after civilians had retreated further towards the coast.
And of course the opening high-profile breaking of the siege of Benghazi.
btw, I doubt Obama will conclude US intervention is the only route – in fact seems to me he’s convinced a coalition of regional powers is the only route; you should listen to the Prashad interview on Brian Lehrer; very interesting what he says about Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and their involvement, strategic and political solutions, etc.
http://www.wnyc.org/story/defining-isis/
There are things we can do. But domestic politics gets in the way.
Neither of these actually has unacceptable foreign policy risks and costs. Just domestic political risks and costs.
Of course the biggest step toward peace would be to get the McCain-Graham foreign ventriloquist team (foreign principals are the ventriloquists and these guys are the….) off of the TV every week. Too many Congressional Democratic think they reflect the public view.
A more politically functional way to cut aid to Israel is to cut all foreign aid. It’s outrageously unpopular, and very little is actually useful – it’s mostly funding Israel/Egypt, and most of the even the remainder is military aid too. There’s a few babies that will go out with that bathwater, but very few given the size of the bath.
The only foreign aid that really is needed at the moment is the full payment of our assessed UN dues. That would do more than help put some real neutral people on the ground in many places. That act would also signal a dramatic change in US foreign policy toward the rest of the world–and a return to more authentic internationalism.
Congress would hate it on both sides of the aisle, however.
By the way, United Against a Nuclear Iran is the interest group that has been dorking around with lobbying Congress against a sane policy on Iran. Some of them are openly Mossad and MI6. And there are three zombies in the bunch, still listed for the fond memories.
Here is who that is (cough, Joe Lieberman):
Ambassador Mark Wallace
Dr. Gary Samore
Dr. August Hanning
Ambassador Kristen Silverberg
Ambassador Richard Holbrooke – In Memoriam
Fouad Ajami – In Memoriam
Joseph I. Lieberman
Francis Townsend
Sir Richard Dearlove
Meir Dagan
Gary Milhollin
Michael Singh
Jonathan Powell
Wolfgang Schüssel
Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones
Ana Palacio
Irwin Cotler
Ambassador Jackie Wolcott
Dr. Graham Allison
Walter Russell Mead
Chuck Freilich
Ambassador Robert Hill
Ambassador Mark P. Lagon
Jack David
Ambassador Cresencio S. Arcos
Ambassador Roger Noriega
Ambassador Otto J. Reich
Mike Gerson
Mark Salter
Lord Stanley Kalms
Matthias Küntzel
Amy Westbrook
Dr. Bernd Knobloch
Craig Dunkerley
Avi Jorisch
Antonio Puri Purini – In Memoriam
David Ibsen – Executive Director
Matan Shamir – Director of Research and Projects
Bob Feferman – Outreach Coordinator
David Peyman – Sanctions Legislation and Media Advisor
When I’ve been disappointed with Obama on national security issues- and there have been plenty of occasions- I’ve asked myself who else, who could conceivably have been elected President, could have done a better job of resisting the permanent warmongering establishment. I haven’t come up with a name to this day. It’s the biggest reason why I supported him in the 2008 primaries, and along with ACA it will be his most important legacy.
There are still 28 months before the history book closes on the Obama administration. After two campaigns, I’m not underestimating him; he tends to be a strong closer.
What is policy now need not be policy in January 2017. Domestic or national security or foreign policy. The Congress is still the major constraint on this President’s ability to deal with issues.
When our we going to raise taxes to fund this decent into hell?
And when am I going to learn how to spell descent?