I’m keeping an eye on early voting statistics because they are at least real instead of theoretical. However, they are difficult to interpret. From what I see so far, the Democrats have reason for optimism in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, but should be getting somewhat panicky about Iowa and Colorado. In Nevada, things look so incredibly bad that Bill Clinton has been recruited and will be leading a GOTV rally tomorrow.
At this point, I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that the Democrats are going to lose their Senate seats in Iowa and Colorado, which I never seriously considered during the spring and summer when forecasting the midterms. On the other hand, I feel more confident about Sen. Kay Hagan than I expected to, and I do feel like Landrieu and Nunn will at least win on Election Day, albeit probably not by enough to avoid perilous run-off elections in which neither is likely to be favored. South Dakota also looks lost, and I am not optimistic about Arkansas.
What the Democrats need to do is to win in Alaska, Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. The Dems can only afford to lose five net seats. So, here’s a scenario that I still think can play out.
Republican Gains
1. Montana
2. Colorado
3. South Dakota
4. Iowa
5. Arkansas
6. Louisiana
7. West Virginia
Democratic Gains
1. Kansas
2. Georgia
3. Kentucky
This scenario would result in net four seat gain for the Republicans. The Senate would be split 51-49, with the Democrats maintaining control. This would also avoid the possibility of Kansas independent candidate Greg Orman deciding to caucus with the Republicans and tipping control of the chamber in their direction. Even if he caucused with them, it would be a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie.
Assuming that Orman wants no part of the modern Republican Party (and I think this is a safe assumption), this gives us wiggle room for one seat. In other words, we could lose North Carolina or Alaska or New Hampshire and still control the chamber. Or, we could win all of those but fail to win in one race out of Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky.
Alaska is beginning to look pretty key here. And it would be lovely to be wrong about our prospects in Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana. I do not think any of those races are definitely lost at this point. Winning any of them would really do wonders for the Dems chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
On a positive note, I think Rick Scott is doomed.
Nice work. Could you add the list of holds for both parties just for clarity.
Also I am curious about how Senate and governor races might affect turnout for House seats and shape the House.
I don’t know how it can be done, but some estimated turnout levels for each state both in absolute numbers, percentage of registered voters, and percentage of 2012 voters would be an interesting check on reality for this scenario.
Colorado…Can’t believe that one.
and confidently declare that Udall and Braley win.
I do not think the GOP will take both Colorado and Iowa. But I am also very worried about New Hampshire.
The past polling in Colorado is terrible.
I think Kansas is likely. Which means the Democrats need one of the remaining seats.
My guess is it will come down to Georgia’s runoff.
I don’t know enough or pay attention enough to other races to really try and “predict” anything, but I am in Louisiana and I’m thinking Mary Landrieu pulls this one out.
I’ve written before about Landrieu really being a good campaigner and how she’s been everywhere she needs to be to get her voters out. Also too, I missed the debate between the Senate candidates, but from people I know who did watch, they seem to think Landrieu cleaned Cassidy’s clock, but I didn’t watch, so that’s only a couple of opinions.
What I can say is what I hear. You see alot of commercials (not as many as some years). The majority of the commercials for Cassidy are during the programming you’d expect…early morning during soap operas/morning tv, and at night during the shows the demo he needs watch in large numbers (NCIS, Dancing With The Stars, etc), and occasionally on urban radio. Landrieu’s commercials are more spaced out and she’s had a high presence on urban radio.
I’ll tell you really what made me go, huh, Landrieu’s gonna pull this one through. Saturday night, I was bringing my nephew home from the movies, and on my way back to my apartment, I was listening to the radio and a campaign commercial came on for Mary Landrieu and the Dem ticket here in Louisiana. Who was the announcer? Stevie Wonder! I was like well dang, Landrieu and the Dems are going all out now.
A little over 2 weeks ago, she was dancing at the HBCU, Southern University’s tailgating party. Now we got radio commercials on the R&B stations with Stevie Wonder! Mary certainly knows her audience.
So I guess my prediction Landrieu over Cassiday. Though of course now that I’ve made one, it’s gonna go to shhhhh…
IMHO what always gets forgotten or dismissed is that Landrieu is tough and good on the stump and likeable. Don’t know the first thing about her opponent, but an R behind his name may be good enough to win many races in LA but it’s not enough against Mary.
Def agree.
From what I’ve seen of Landrieu, she’s out there like gangbusters on the stump.
I haven’t really seen Cassidy, I’ve seen more of his ads than him
Almost all the polls continue to exhibit a high percentage of undecideds. With LV screens and late in the election cycle, the undecideds should be lower. Looking back at the last month of the 2012 Presidential election, all but one LV screen poll had a thumb on the scale for Romney — some by a little and some by four or more percentage points. The one poll that didn’t had Obama winning by five; so, it erred slightly in the other direction. The most accurate poll was Gallup’s Tracking poll that used RV at the end of September and beginning of October. Gallup’s final LV poll had Romney winning. ABC/WaPo had more than one poll that got it close enough right, but this year hasn’t polled the races I’ve looked at.
So, how will likely and undecided voters split this year? The narrative the MSM has been pitching is that 2014 will be a GOP sweep. But didn’t the polls say that Harry Reid supposed to lose in 2010? Angle was leading in almost all the polls. Most in the last month by three to four percent. Then she lost by 5.6%! That’s a 10% swing. The numbers and trend lines for Bennet in CO look very much like Udall’s this year, except Buck in 2010 hit 49-50 in the polls more often that Gardner has. While always leading in the polls, her final margin of 9.8% was almost twice that of the RCP average. Compare that to the WI polls — Johnson leaped out to a lead in the low fifties, and while Feingold improved his average poll numbers by 2% on election day, it wasn’t enough.
Wouldn’t at all be surprised if only MT, SD, and WV flip.
Anyone else noticing a bizarre (to me) absence of yard signs this time around? [thought I posted this question already but I guess not]
There seems to be a lot more reliance on social media this time around, at least in this area. Massive yard sign theft is also a problem for a few of the local candidates.
maybe social media is replacing yard signs? I’m not on social media so don’t have much feel for it