I’m keeping an eye on early voting statistics because they are at least real instead of theoretical. However, they are difficult to interpret. From what I see so far, the Democrats have reason for optimism in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, but should be getting somewhat panicky about Iowa and Colorado. In Nevada, things look so incredibly bad that Bill Clinton has been recruited and will be leading a GOTV rally tomorrow.
At this point, I am reluctantly coming to the conclusion that the Democrats are going to lose their Senate seats in Iowa and Colorado, which I never seriously considered during the spring and summer when forecasting the midterms. On the other hand, I feel more confident about Sen. Kay Hagan than I expected to, and I do feel like Landrieu and Nunn will at least win on Election Day, albeit probably not by enough to avoid perilous run-off elections in which neither is likely to be favored. South Dakota also looks lost, and I am not optimistic about Arkansas.
What the Democrats need to do is to win in Alaska, Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. The Dems can only afford to lose five net seats. So, here’s a scenario that I still think can play out.
Republican Gains
1. Montana
2. Colorado
3. South Dakota
4. Iowa
5. Arkansas
6. Louisiana
7. West Virginia
Democratic Gains
1. Kansas
2. Georgia
3. Kentucky
This scenario would result in net four seat gain for the Republicans. The Senate would be split 51-49, with the Democrats maintaining control. This would also avoid the possibility of Kansas independent candidate Greg Orman deciding to caucus with the Republicans and tipping control of the chamber in their direction. Even if he caucused with them, it would be a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie.
Assuming that Orman wants no part of the modern Republican Party (and I think this is a safe assumption), this gives us wiggle room for one seat. In other words, we could lose North Carolina or Alaska or New Hampshire and still control the chamber. Or, we could win all of those but fail to win in one race out of Kansas, Georgia, and Kentucky.
Alaska is beginning to look pretty key here. And it would be lovely to be wrong about our prospects in Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana. I do not think any of those races are definitely lost at this point. Winning any of them would really do wonders for the Dems chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
On a positive note, I think Rick Scott is doomed.
