Progress Pond

I Lost the Argument With Myself

My only regret is that I didn’t have the balls to go as negative in my projections as my gut was telling me to go. I actually came close to making a projection even worse than what happened tonight. I seriously considered making a projection that we would lose basically everywhere, even in the governor’s races.

I talked myself out of it for two reasons. First, the polls didn’t support such a bleak outcome. And, second, I thought I was letting my emotions get the better of my reasoning. I wasn’t willing to subject my own black mood on all of you and so I held back and gave a more optimistic projection.

My Senate projections are actually looking pretty good other than Kansas (and maybe North Carolina) and being wrong about runoffs. But my gubernatorial projections were way off.

For a long time I had some hope that we’d outperform the polls, but I lost that hope in the last two weeks when I saw how the polls were breaking.

The momentum at the end was all against us. I sensed it but I didn’t fully embrace it.

In the end, my emotions did color my projections even though I thought I was bending over backwards to avoid that.

This country just became a much more unpleasant place.

I hope we’re all pleased with ourselves.

So it goes.

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