After the Bush administration reacted to the 9/11 attacks, the breach of the levees in New Orleans, the sectarian warfare in Iraq, and the collapse of the Housing Bubble by telling us that no one could have predicted them, I think it’s time to put that excuse away for a while.
Few could have predicted that Emanuel, 55, would be in such a precarious position against [Jesus “Chuy”] Garcia.
Drawing on a deep well of connections he developed during his two tours as a top White House aide and six years as a congressman, the mayor has raised more than $13 million — over 10 times more than Garcia. Emanuel has also had help from President Obama, who cut radio commercials and made a campaign swing through Chicago just a few days before the initial Feb. 24 election.
But Emanuel, whose rocky first term saw him preside over a wave of violent crime, a massive budget shortfall and a series of confrontations with teachers, finds himself in political jeopardy. A poll conducted by the independent firm Ogden & Fry, which was released Sunday, showed the mayor holding onto a narrow 43 percent to 39 percent lead.
I mean, c’mon. It says it right there. Emanuel’s “rocky first term saw him preside over a wave of violent crime, a massive budget shortfall and a series of confrontations with teachers.”
What does a political analyst need to look for when trying to determine if a politician might have a hard time getting reelected? In particular, what does a mayor need to do to assure his popularity if not deal with crime and budget issues?
Sure, sometimes a mayor gets dealt a bad hand. But getting dealt a bad hand is transparent in this case. Emanuel inherited some serious problems. And that’s precisely why is should have been easy to foresee that he could face a problem getting reelected.
When you add to this his obnoxious behavior and alienation of key elements of the Democratic base, it’s hard to argue that he played his bad cards so well that he should have been considered invulnerable.
Right?
Emanuel is in a dogfight that was very predictable.
I’m tired of being told that “few could have predicted” things that should be staring good analysts right in their face.