I’m generally very critical of Dana Milbank’s approach to covering politics, but he did an excellent job today. This is partly explained by the fact that Milbank has some unique history with Donald Trump that he can bring to bear to help us understand what The Donald is up to right now:
We can look back at what he did and said in 1999, when he was flirting with a run for the Reform Party presidential nomination and I accompanied him on a swing through Southern California.
I flew on his 727 with the winged “T” on the tail and the mirrored headboard on the bed, and I learned all about his prospective platform: progressive on social issues such as gays in the military, for campaign finance reform and universal health care, in favor of more regulation, opposed to investing Social Security money in the stock market. Most of all, he preached tolerance — contrasting himself with Pat Buchanan, his rival for the nomination, who had made statements considered anti-Semitic and anti-immigrant.
Buchanan at the time had been talking about a “railroad killer” and other criminals entering illegally from Mexico. He said other politicians were afraid that “if they speak out against illegal immigration and they speak out against the crimes that are being committed, suddenly they’ll be considered insensitive, or they say, ‘We might lose the Hispanic vote.’ ”
Trump back then issued a statement saying he hates intolerance because in New York, “a town with different races, religions and peoples, I have learned to work with my brother man.” I accompanied him as he underscored the point by touring the Simon Wiesenthal Center’s Museum of Tolerance in Los Angeles.
“He seems to be a racist,” Trump said of Buchanan.
Fast forward sixteen years and Donald Trump is making Pat Buchanan seem moderate on racial issues. Milbank explains this, correctly in my view, as a simple matter of Trump seeking the nomination of a different party this time around. He’s an opportunist who will say what he thinks will advance his interests, and if that means being a tolerant New Yorker or it means channeling George Wallace, he’ll do it in a second.
It seems to be working. A new Public Policy Polling poll of North Carolina shows Trump in the lead there, and there are enough other state and national polls showing Trump getting a recent bump that it’s safe to conclude that he’s helped his chances with the Republican electorate even as he’s becoming a national and corporate pariah.
Milbank concludes from this, with much justification, that the GOP has created a monster.
A spokesman from Public Policy Polling appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show this evening and explained that the Trump voters in North Carolina are disillusioned with the party leadership. They’re also a little stunned at the moment. Respondents said that they love the Confederate flag, hate gay marriage and despise Obamacare, and they received severe defeats on all three fronts over the last couple of weeks. They’re looking for someone who will stick up for them, and right now that person is Donald Trump.
Part of the problem is the party and their media wurlitzer keep priming them with bad information designed to instill one part fear and one part false optimism. We all remember Karl Rove on election night in 2012 in obvious disbelief that Romney lost badly. If their most savvy strategist was seduced by right-wing propaganda, what chance does some dude on his couch in western North Carolina have of predicting the future?
Fox News loves to hype stories about undocumented workers committing crimes, which leads people to falsely believe that crime is up and a serious problem, and that Mexicans are largely responsible for it. Texas Republicans are arranging things so that students won’t be taught that slavery was a primary or even significant contributing factor to the Civil War. And short of the tragedy in Benghazi, there has been nothing more overhyped than the supposed threat of Obamacare. Not only that, but conservatives have consistently given their base false hope that they could roll back the law.
So, naturally, your average “very conservative” North Carolina voter is looking around and wondering what the fuck happened. Back in 2004, they supposedly vanquished gay marriage at the ballot box. Their trusted sources tell them that slavery and racism had nothing to do with the Confederacy, so what’s the problem with the flag? John Roberts was supposed to be one of them, so why has he saved Obamacare twice when he had a chance to kill it? For that matter, why isn’t Mitt Romney the president?
Most of all, however, there are the immigrants who are out there on a murderous rapacious rampage. And, when they are done murdering and raping, they will all get the right to vote. And they’ll vote to give themselves free stuff and for European-style socialism, and for gun confiscation and even more gay stuff. And ISIS and al-Qaeda and we’re-all-gonna-die!
As Milbank notes, Donald Trump didn’t make any of this stuff up. All he did was pick it up and shine it right back in the faces of the people who have been pumping this filth into the minds’ of the base.
The previously tolerant Trump may be a phony, but he’s no dope: He recognized that, in the fragmented Republican field, his name recognition would take him far if he merely voiced, in his bombastic style, the positions GOP voters craved. The mogul’s broader basket of issues is also in tune with those of a slate of candidates who have compared homosexuality to alcoholism (Perry), likened union protesters to the Islamic State (Walker) and proposed elections for Supreme Court justices (Cruz), and who virtually all oppose same-sex marriage and action on climate change.
It worked. Trump placed second in national polls by Fox News and CNN, virtually guaranteeing him a place in the first debate, on Aug. 6 — unless the GOP persuades Fox News, the host, to dump Trump.
That would be hard to justify. Trump may be a monster, but he’s the monster Republicans created.
So, what does the mirror show us?
Donald Trump is losing business relationships left and right as no one wants to be associated with him and thereby take a hit on their brand and revenues. At the very same time, Trump is surging with likely Republican primary voters. This is causing most of the other Republican candidates, many of the party’s rank-and-file politicians, and their party establishment and some donors to make an attempt to disassociate themselves from him.
Here we have Trump being so racist that he’s losing the chef that was supposed to make his new Washington DC hotel appealing, and yet the Republican base is saying that they want him in the Oval Office.
I’ve spent 10 years trying to convince you that this is exactly what the Republican Party has become. But I couldn’t get people to shun the GOP the way they are suddenly shunning Donald Trump and the Confederate Flag. Milbank is right. Trump didn’t invent any of this. He’s just exploiting it in a way that’s a little more obvious than the way that Rick Santorum and Lindsey Graham and Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz have been exploiting it.
If the GOP thinks they are better or even substantially different from Trump, they’re simply mistaken. He’s giving the people what they have been conditioned to want. It’s only possible because Republicans have made one evil decision after another after another, all in the service of the idea that fear, hatred, and stupidity, if sown widely enough, will give them the power that they seek.
A couple years back, I figured maybe Cruz would be the logical apotheosis of stupid who would finally cause the GOP Wurlitzer to have a core meltdown. But now the Donald is making even Teddy look like a moderate. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t think either of those guys could win the nomination.
But then why not? Jeb may have all the money in the world but everyone (on both sides of the aisle) hates him. Scott Walker’s a hack. One of these losers has to win. Perhaps this can be the GOP’s modern Goldwater campaign.
Walker. The Kochs will never allow Trump.
Great post, Booman. Thanks. One small historical note: George Wallace was an opportunist too.
He started his career as a moderate on racial issues. He refused to join the Dixiecrat walkout at the 1948 DNC. J. L. Chestnut once said, “Judge George Wallace was the most liberal judge that I had ever practiced law in front of. He was the first judge in Alabama to call me ‘Mister’ in a courtroom.” He spoke out against the KKK, which endorsed his opponent in the 1958 gubernatorial race.
After losing that race, Wallace said to a close aide, “You know why I lost that governor’s race? … I was outniggered by John Patterson. And I’ll tell you here and now, I will never be outniggered again.”
trump will flame out, but, by firing up a rump hungry for a fighter they believe is authentic, he’s making the ground fertile for the most bombastic of the still “serious” candidates — ted cruz — to reap the nomination.
the rest of the “serious” lineup — jeb!, walker, rubio, christie — they’ve already been deemed too liberal and squishy by real americans, even before trump crashed their little debutante ball. it will be interesting to see just how far out into crazy creek they’re willing to plunge in order to salvage their campaigns.
trump threatens to make the blindest wombat (or even a village scribe) see exactly how toxic the gop has become.
Flame out? The Donald has basically spent no money (except paying people to cheer when he threw his hat in the ring). He can be interviewed by any media outlet in any part of the county he chooses. While the entire GOP field (except Cruz) seem to be under orders to not talk about anything to do with The Donald. They cannot even go on FOX. They have been on Morning Joe smiling a lot. The GOP candidates are standing around with their hands in their pockets mumbling.
Buchanan was anti-Semitic and racist. I used to listen to the (Tom) Braden & Buchanan radio show (and sometimes on TV) back in the late 1970s in the Washington, D.C. area. Buchanan always added a particular inflection to the words when he spoke of the “Jews” and the “Japs”–you knew where he was coming from. (The liberal Braden was famous for walking out on John McLaughlin the time he sat in for Buchanan; also, Braden’s family was the inspiration for the TV series “Eight is Enough”.)
On the other hand, Buchanan seems to be a charming fellow; witness his getting along with Eleanor Clift on the McLaughlin Group and with Rachel Maddow when he still appeared on MSNBC. If I drank and had to have a beer with a conservative, Buchanan would have been much more interesting than George W. Bush, that’s for sure!
If he is bold enough, in your face enough, in the “news” enough he is betting that enough folks will accept it as “leadership” and buy it. So blatent it should doom his campaign to a short run, but then this is The U.S.A. where many things that shouldn’t work do. If he get’s the nomination, he would be difficult to beat.
You see article leads saying things like “Bush rocketed to the top—” or “Trump leading in—” and realize that ‘top’ or ‘lead’ means 1 in 6 out of 4 in 10. That is 16% of the less than 40% of Americans who self-identify as Republicans represents a pretty slim slice of the ultimate electorate. Even now three times as many Republicans say they won’t vote for Trump under any circumstances than poll for him. Such is what it means to be number 1 or 2 in a 16 person field.
On this one the CW is correct. Right now Trump is the big Blowfish in a pond full of bottom feeders and preening goldfish. And as puffed up as he is is taking all the visible space in the pond. Which doesn’t ultimately make the pond any bigger.
America might bet fooled into thinking that Scot Walker has an actual soul or that Marco Rubio is a smart guy that can grow into the job (rather than the opportunist his career has always shown him to be) and of course Bush can back into the job. But there will be no President Carson and no President Trump no matter how many weeks they hang around the top four of the polling. (Now Cruz is a wildcard. By rights he should get a Goldwater style thumping if he managed to edge out the nomination. Then again they laughed at a guy named Adolph whose father was born Alois Schicklgruber. Something about the “Power of the Will”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_family)
The factor I missed when posting above is that Negatives are not cast in stone. Because when Trump went into his full act those Negatives started dropping like a stone.
Now I don’t know what to think but thought I could at least retroactively apologize for being so certain two weeks back.
Here in my progressive/liberal California barely over a decade ago, a State with tens of millions elected another cartoon character, Schwarzenneger, as our top executive. Then we gave him a landslide re-election in 2006 even though the State was governed horribly both before and after his re-election.
I’m not worried about Trump, just as I wasn’t worried about Christie when he was the shit-talker the press just couldn’t get enough of. But I would put almost no well-financed candidate beyond the possibility of being elected by the voters of our beleaguered nation. Trump is not positioning himself for the general election, that’s for sure. But I thought the same about Aaaahnuld.
a taste of wingnut sentiment via free republic:
(“GOPe” = “GOP elite” or “GOP establishment”)
(see my earlier comment re cruz above)
There is absolutely nothing that Trump is saying that doesn’t appear as filet mignon to the GOP base.
THIS IS WHO THEY ARE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
a still from the video in 2000
Somehow I don’t think that the nativist (nicer word for ‘racist troglodyte’) part of the Republican base that is currently lining up behind Trump will find Trump feeling up Giuliani any more appealing than they found Giuliani being felt up by Trump back when Giuliani was leading the polls in 2011 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55838.html
The Jeff Foxworthy and Larry the Cable Guy comedy demographic don’t take Drag Camp well. Trump is both at heart and right on the surface a fast talking New Yawk asshole. Which is part of his ‘charm’ (Chris Christie hits some of those same spots). But that wears off quick S of the Mason Dixon line. I just suspect that in the end the Good Ol’ Boy demographic will swing to a guy that actually wears cowboy boots and belongs to an Evangelical congregation and delivers his hatred in an accent they can understand. Even if he is Tex-Cubano Canuckian.
“serious candidate” Jebya’s latest, that his economic plan involves USA workers working more hours- is he trying to lose? or testing the Rs capacity to steal the election? they may end up w Trump
That statement by Jeb ought to be broadcast loud and clear to voters by Hillary, Bernie, O’Malley and every elected Democrat and/or national profile Dem. That’s simply the biggest messaging blunder yet and we shouldn’t let him off the hook. We need to be relentless and on message to voters that this is what Jeb and the GOP want of Americans: that they labor even harder and longer than they already are.
I also second the first comment that this is a great post and should be shared widely.
yes, there are 2 great comment threads over at TPM, one for the comment and one for his “do over” today, but ppl point out this is his “47% speech” and many draw parallels between Jebya and RMoney’s entitlement (and the fact that neither probably worked a full day in their life). (many comments are simply f* u) there was an interesting article in the NYTimes about 6 years ago, the olden days, about difficulties children of extreme privilege had adjusting to working (many couldn’t do it, lots of examples from NY businesses
http://forums.talkingpointsmemo.com/t/discussion-bush-under-my-plan-people-should-work-longer-hours/
23588)
http://forums.talkingpointsmemo.com/t/discussion-jeb-on-work-longer-hours-comment-i-meant-people-nee
d-to-work-full-time/23616
I have spoken to a number of my righty coworkers since Trump declared himself in the race. Not one has had a problem with the content, only perhaps with his timing, this being his first words as a candidate. His statements are the true beliefs of the base.
Same here. What Trump is saying is just the same shit I have been hearing for years from conservative/Tea Party types in my neck of the woods. He’s a wonderful breath of fresh air for them. They can turn on their television every day and see someone so enthusiastically voicing and mirroring their pent up rage and frustration that perfectly aligns with “taking back their country”.
Rove thought he hade the election in the bag because the the back up servers were contracted out to the R firm Smartech.
“But of the fourteen counties that came in after the crash connected Ohio’s election computers to SmartTECH’s computers in Chattanooga, every single one of them showed voter irregularities – that all favored George W. Bush”
Anonymous claims the put a firewall up to block the manipulation in 2012
“Only this time, when the servers came back up, the votes never flipped. President Obama’s lead held and he went on to win, while Karl Rove – and Mitt Romney – watched in slack-jawed amazement.”
The intriguing part is going to be how Trump drives the other candidates. Will they rush to join McCain in touting the respect they have for Mexicans and end up actually promoting a real immigration policy to campaign on? Will they react to Trump’s bombing threat on ISIS’ oil wells by backing away from an Iraq engagement? So, in other words, will Trump’s loud version of their own rhetoric bring a race from candidates towards moderation?
The Trump alternative would be moderation, but the base is so well trained that they won’t stand for it.
According to Maddow, Fox has changed the rules about the debates.
It’s not going to be based on polls.
Now, the candidates have to do Financial Disclosure Forms with the FEC in order to get a spot on the debate.
They don’t think Trump will file, thus kick him off the debate.
And then Trump went on Twitter to announce that that’s no problem, he’ll file. They’re stuck with him.
More than five years ago, Steven posted a video here revealing some typical attitudes of the Tea Party rank and file. He called it “Need a Laugh?”
The process of Republican degeneration was already well under way by then. I posted a comment comparing it to the long, drawn-out death spiral of a once-great magazine, The American Mercury. Commenter ernie1241 added to that with an even longer reply.
To me the story of the American Mercury was simply (as I said then) “an example of what can happen to a once great and respectable institution once it gets into the wrong hands. They move toward the fringe, they become the fringe, then they become the fringe of that fringe, then the fringe of that fringe, and so on and on … until, if we’re fortunate, they die. But they never totally die.”
Your comments about Trump illustrate exactly the same process of degeneration five years further down the road.
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2010/4/21/183850/425