With eleventy billion Republicans ostensibly running for president, it’s a safe bet that most of them realize that they have little to no chance of winning the nomination. Some want to wage a culture war. Some want to promote actual war. Some want to sell books or land a radio or teevee show. Some basically have nothing better to do it at this point. Some may want to raise their profile for a more serious run in the next cycle.
But a handful of these folks are straight-up running for vice-president. The people I definitely put in this category are Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Bobby Jindal.
I think Marco Rubio is an interesting case because he (should be) prevented by the Constitution from running on the same ticket as Jeb Bush. I suppose that no one much cares about this provision and it didn’t prevent Bush and Cheney from running together even though they both lived in Texas. But Cheney had a home in Wyoming and had represented the state in Congress. I don’t think Rubio or Bush will quite so easy a time arguing that they aren’t Floridians.
Still, if they really want to get around this provision it shouldn’t be all that much more difficult than the sidestep John McCain did to avoid the fact that he was born in the Panama Canal Zone.
I think Rubio thinks he has a chance of winning the nomination, though, so we’ll have to see how he does.
This fight will get nasty and some folks may talk their way out of contention for the veep slot, but the three most logical tickets I can see are:
Bush/Walker
Walker/Rubio
Rubio/Fiorina
“Walker” is already a Bush family name, so there’s a familiarity there. The reason Bush would want Walker is to shore up the disappointed base and to pray for some help in the Midwest. Another option would be Kasich, and that would be more of a move to the middle that could give him a boost in must-win Ohio and help his brand a bit with moderates. Picking Fiorina would also make some sense, although the Palin precedent is still pretty fresh, and thinking you’ll pick off a bunch of women with your veep pick is a strategy that is 0 for 2 at this point.
Scott Walker won’t vanquish the Bush family only to put them back in the mix. That’s more of an Obama move. He’ll want to go for that Clinton/Gore young guns thing, and he’ll hope that Rubio wins him Florida and gets him somewhere with the damage Trump did to the Republican brand with Latinos. It’s a desperation move, but it makes the most sense.
Rubio could reciprocate, essentially, but picking Walker. I could see that. But I think he’ll want to rebrand the GOP as completely as possible, and that’s what Fiorina offers him.
I have no idea who Trump would pick. He’d have to hire people to find someone he hadn’t already called an idiot and a loser.
I think Chris Christie and Rick Perry have too many legal problems to be worth the hassle, and I’d also note that Walker and Rubio are lugging around skeleton closets on their backs.
Carson is too nutty. Huckabee and Santorum are too religiously nutty. Lindsey Graham is too ambiguously single.
Bobby Jindal is going to have a hard time making a case that he should be on the ticket, but he will at least merit some consideration.
Everyone hates Ted Cruz.
That leaves Rand Paul. He will be no one’s running mate. He must win outright to get on the ticket. If he somehow wins, I have no earthly idea who he’d pick, but it will probably be someone about as well known as Admiral Stockdale.
What do you think?
about Trump and his use of language. thought this was a good way ot looking at it, from BJ:
http://www.balloon-juice.com/2015/07/28/open-thread-1907/#comment-5420322
Like peak wingnut – that’s a lie.
That the infamous ratf*cker himself, the “boastful black prince of Republican sleaze,” Roger Stone is apparently advising the Trump campaign.
Not to mention running for Rubio’s seat as a libertarian. Jeb must be spewing.
Spectator sport of 2016 this.
At this point, I’m fairly certain we’re going to be seeing Bush as the nominee from the (R) side. Once he declared, he established that early high baseline that Romney had back in the last go-round. Romney would get knocked out of the lead by a succession of pretenders, and those leads were fairly long-lasting (Perry and Gingrich for a month, each, with Cain and Santorum enjoying much briefer periods in the sun).
But if Trump were to win the nominee, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gene Simmons or Kanye as his veep pick.
Caitlyn.
Rosie O’Donnell
They make up on an Oprah special.
Fiorina isn’t on anybody’s long list for VP.
Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker is at least rational on paper. But were long past the days when “rational on paper” is enough. A ticket that doesn’t visually exhibit natural and genuine affinity between the two nominees (and secondarily the spouses as well) won’t fare well against a ticket that does have that thing.
Bush/Quayle didn’t have it and Clinton/Gore did. Dole/Kemp, if they had it, it was weaker than Clinton/Gore. Bush/Cheney had it and Gore/Lieberman didn’t. Kerry/Edwards didn’t have it. Nor did McCain/Palin or Romney/Ryan. To date, Obama/Biden scores at the top on this measure.
Bush would need an attractive and effective attack dog. A Condi Rice or Joni Ernst. Rubio’s out because this time there’s no way around the fact that they’re both FL residents. But wouldn’t rule out Bush/Cruz.
Kasich only wins the nomination if the party elders determine that he’s their best shot. They, and not Kasich, will also choose his running mate.
Not Cruz — like Donaldo, too much of a wild card, too independent, too much potential to damage the ticket with his outspoken mouth. Not to mention the glaring political extremism. And lack of affinity of which you speak.
Jeb doesn’t need help with keeping Texas in the fold, the only state Theodore could possibly help with, but (except for Kasich) would probably need a stronger conservative on the ticket — just not one as out there as Cruz.
I don’t give Florina much of a shot at anything, other than a possible second-tier cabinet post in a Jeb admin. Maybe that Latina gov of NM Martinez or the SC Gov who signed the anti-confer flag bill (or was she born abroad?)
Agree with you on a couple of things. Fiorina is not a politician. One would have to be an idiot to choose her. Of course we’re talking about most likely Bush or Walker . . .
Cruz isn’t on anyone’s short list but his own. Most likely whoever emerges is going to have to solidify the base by picking someone hard-right (while subtly moving leftward on message to avoid alienating R-leaning-I’s). Thus, someone like Condy Rice is out. But Cruz himself is too much the loose cannon and clearly all in for himself. No one trusts him at all. Perhaps Paul Ryan gets another shot. Maybe Ayotte, a woman to neutralize Hillary who plays the old “law and order” card. Maybe Thune; he’s lunatic enough.
Condi won’t be a candidate for the same reason Lindsay won’t be a candidate
They’re dating? each other?
that’s an idea, because otherwise, in Booman’s phrase “ambiguously single”
Wouldn’t be so fast to underestimate the ability of powers within the GOP to rein in one of their own. They did it with Nixon in 1952. If that individual possessed something useful to them. The bagger and fundie vote may not be as compliant as they were in 2012 and Palin was a bone tossed to them in 2008.
On his own, Cruz is going nowhere and wouldn’t be that difficult for the GOP to crush in 2018 in he chooses to run for re-election.
What makes Cruz unappealing is that bagger and fundie support for him appears to be not well developed.
Not likely that there’s a crazy in the bunch that would lose TX for the GOP next year.
Condi Rice is a possibility. Here you have probably the only black woman that the Teabaggers fawn over.
She does have that special relationship with the Bushes. OTOH, she has a comfy life now and has never seemed inclined to run for office.
I guess you missed my other comment. the base isn’t in favor of marriage equality.
But “ambiguously single” is OK if one is a true War Hawk and totally devoted to a white Republican man.
yes, I think it’s ok for the Cabinet, – and just to make sure a person can make an offhand remark referring to one’s utter devotion to the prez, but not for prez or vp where there are official functions with an eye on family life, especially if there is [or was a couple years ago] a family in the background.
When was the last time a Repub nominee selected a defeated primary contender? 1980?
I think Kasich is truly after the top spot, and is probably rather ego-swelled by his home state approval ratings, a not-insignificant EC state also. He probably hopes to use that fact to persuade voters, plus his ability to articulate enough conservative issues without seeming too extreme. His rather long resume too.
He has plenty of experience on the stump, so doesn’t really need the freshening up he would be getting out there now, and no one is going to forget a highly popular governor from the swing state of Ohio is available as a possible VP pick if he had stayed out.
Of course, if he goes thru the motions of campaigning, and presents soft and kindly, Huntsmanlike, in the debates, I might be persuaded he’s in it only for the second slot.
Otherwise, except for Rubio/Fiorina, I agree with Boo’s picks.
More interesting to me is whether Hillary chooses Sanders, Warren or surprises us.
I’m hoping Sanders chooses Amanda Curtis !!!
Rahm Emanuel
he’s probably on her short list
What about Liz Cheney for VP?
luckily she has no credentials – but yes, how about Bush/ Cheney for old times sake?
Attack dog?
yes
woman?
supposedly human
unprincipled neocon?
yes, of course
entitled family? smarter than Palin or Quayle? Culture warrior?
yes, yes, yes!
That’s a winner!!!
plus no potential health vulnerability as seems to be descended from an undead line
speaking of Huckabee, I finally saw some of his “ovens” comment on video via the Daily Show; he uses as a credential to support his statement that he’s visited Auschwitz three times – ??? stunning – how does on even begin with someone who cites his tourist visit to Auschwitz as his credential?
I’ve said this for years – even before the “water gulping” speech – Rubio is an unmitigated disaster as a politician. Like Kerry, Romney, Dukakis, Gore, Jindal … positions and qualifications notwithstanding (and these should of course rule out Rubio, but …) Rubio doesn’t have the gravitas or the comfort in his own skin to win a national election. Beyond that, his supposed strength (“Latino”) is completely negated by the fact that he’s a lily white racist Cuban – no intrinsic appeal even to the majority of younger Cubans, most of whom are not white, or to the large Puerto Rican demographic in Florida, much less to the Mexican-American population whose surge is almost entirely responsible for the “Latino” demographic’s electoral importance. Rubio’s name ends with a vowel – woohoo.
Anywhere you put him on the ticket, Rubio is a massive liability. I could still be proven wrong, but I don’t think so. And Jeb Bush has many of the same “unpresidential” characteristics. Based on my criteria, it was no shock that George W. won his gubernatorial campaign and Jeb lost his.
The only GOP candidates who scare me at all are Walker and Christie, with the proviso that I haven’t heard enough of Kasich to decide how comfortable he is in his own skin or whether he has any gravitas to speak of. And I’m not saying that Walker has what it takes – just that he hasn’t convinced me 100% that he doesn’t. And Christie has so much bad baggage with both the left and right that he’s probably a non-starter. But I’m very worried about that debate. Christie could out-Trump Trump very easily with his quick-witted blow-hard bully routine. If I could wave my hand and disqualify one candidate in the service of guaranteeing a democratic win, it would still be Christie. Of all the candidates, Christie most closely resembles Rush Limbaugh, who is the ideal for the GOP base – I don’t see why he doesn’t run – he’d probably come in at 27% in the polls on the first day. You laugh, but Limbaugh is every bit as credible as most of these maniacs. That’s how low the bar is. The Trump juggernaut has probably made him realize this.
Don’t think Christie’s NJ bully boy style travels well.
Agree that Rubio is a featherweight, but somehow he’s been staying at the top of the second tier pack. May be a function of not being seen that much.
Walker is truly untested outside WI. What he’s had there is bucks, weak opponents, and a fawning media. He’s stupid and cunning like GWB, but doesn’t have the “likeability” quotient that facilitated the beltway press’s swoon over GWB.
Walker will still have bucks and a fawning media.
The Big League is a whole different ball game. They did swoon over Paul Ryan up through the 2012 election, but have lost all interest in him.
Walker has been playing in a Koch funded puddling pool. The few times that he has attempted to wade into the big pool he would have drowned if he hadn’t made a hasty retreat back to his puddling pool.
Check out his latest appeal to the hoi polloi — he’s running because god told him to. Apparently, god is now as fickle as GOP voters. Except, the voters don’t like any of the GOP candidates and god had endorsed all of them.
Reminds me of back to back scenes in “The Longest Day”. Scene 1 ends with an Allied General saying, “Sometimes I wonder whose side God in on.” as he contemplates the rain that is delaying the invasion. The immediately folowing scene is on the German side and ends with the German General muttering, “Sometimes I winder whose side God is on.”
Another great scene is when and aide suggest to (Field Marshall Jodl?) that he personally call the Fuhrer and ask that the reserve panzers be released. The response is, “Me? On my knees to that Bohemian corporal?”. The movie was released in 1962 so I was probably a High school senior when i saw it and just completing four years of German, so I could really follow the German without the subtitles.
On Christie, pretty much what Marie said. I was wondering if maybe you’re from the northeast. I was born and bred in New York and, though I’ve been gone since I was 18, I still get the appeal of that style. But Ed Koch, outside the northeast that style might play well to a certain blowhard angry white male populace but not broadly enough to carry one all the way to the White House.
May I ask what to you might seem a naive question? Why would Kasich not win the Republican nomination? IMHO, the Republicans always nominate the person with the best chance of winning. This would appear to me to be Kasich. No ?
———————–
He doesn’t have the national name recognition. He doesn’t have the national power base. He doesn’t have the money nor can he raise it. He doesn’t have the national organization. He doesn’t have the state organizations. He doesn’t have the needed contacts into the state parties.
And he is polling at 2%.
Did you guys see the poll where Bernie was beating the GOP field nationally? Wow.
I don’t believe it until I see some state polling in large red states with significant electoral votes. Making inroads there would change the narrative and likely also the tone of the campaign.
Right now it looks like the GOP crazies are 28% of something. After being shoved back in the closet except for pandering, they are mad as hornets.
The castrator from Iowa will BE the Vice Presidential candidate.
Think of Joni as Sara P with a few more brain cells, has no problem showing the racist bull around,and it shows
the Republicans care for women; as sacrificial lambs on the way to slaughter!
The GOP need to carry both Florida and Ohio to win the presidency. Personally I doubt they can however Kaisch gives them the best shot to take Ohio so …
Bush/Kaisch in 2016.
2012 electoral map with FL and OH in the GOP camp is still short of what they need. Add CO and IA and they’re still short.
Not seeing any combination for the GOP that gets them any closer. Questionable that with Walker on the ticket, WI would flip. And CO won’t be an easy gain for them either.
And why I think our next President will have lady parts. 🙂
Obama won 332 to 206 in the Electoral Count in 2012.
Looking at the 2012 map:
I cannot see a single state switching D to R.
Never a good idea to project the decision of a jury before they’ve heard the case or the outcome of a presidential election when the seat is open and neither nominee is known.
Okay — I projected 2008 after the Iowa caucus, but it did get a bit dicey until SC. And 2012 in early 2010 even though Obama was floundering and the mid-terms were shaping up to be ugly for Democrats.
What I’m confident of at this point is that Clinton won’t flip a single 2012 red state. And most of the blue states are solid. But many of the blue states are fragile and there are too many negative trend lines in them to dismiss.
we need up to the minute Philadelphia commentary on the Walker Philly cheese steak debacle – including that he ordered but didn’t eat the entire Pat’s Steaks cheese steak and left the remains on the table
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/trending/Wisconsin-Gov-Scott-Walker-visits-Pats-and-Genos-amid-pr
otests-bad-cheesesteak-orders.html
When it comes to the Philly cheese-steak photo-op, Christie’s got it locked down. Now, outside Pennsylvania and New Jersey . . .
Trump/Haley is the classic political balancing act, geographically and temperamentally.
Rand Paul pairs with a Silicon Valley CEO (and Fiorina does not fit that profile).
Your first two are likely.
Rubio from a consultant perspective pairs with Carson, who has an interesting white following in the Republican base that cuts against Rubio’s negatives. And Palin has already proven that nutty doesn’t matter with the base. The logic of the pairing is the idea of sticking it to the Democrats on minority identity issues. The logic is as nutty as Carson, but it could happen.
Why isn’t anybody bringing up Ted Nugent as the Donald’s attack dog running mate?
Not brainy enough? How about O’Reilly? That would be a clash of egos I suppose.
Seriously I don’t see him picking any career politician. It also needs to someone with some media savvy and appeal to the stupid. Palin?
As long as we’re just making shit up, Trump’s running mate is . . . (drum roll, please) Cliven Bundy. Perfect balance between northeast tell-it-like-it-is blowhardism and good-ole-boy dumb-as-a-rock blowhardism.
Haha!
I want my rent money from that dirtball.
I’m not really (much) making shit up but Trump is. Remember Palin was already picked once.
And I don’t seriously think he will pick a career pol since he and his numbskull followers think they are all losers.
Bundy does fit the pofile though. Joe the plumber?