I’ve seen a lot of smart people predicting that this September/October window we’re in is going to be the time for Sen. Ted Cruz to shine as a presidential candidate. With all this really unpopular (with the Republican base) must-pass legislation to wade through, the Republican leadership in Congress is going to be taking it on the chin over and over. Even the prospect of dealing with the rage prompted John Boehner to announce that he’ll resign when all the dirty work is over.
The idea is that Sen. Cruz will loudly protest at every juncture, accusing his own party of being gutless appeasers who talk a good game but are ultimately bent on giving President Obama everything he wants.
So, yeah, it’s not like knowledgeable people couldn’t see this coming. It’s not even surprising, at this point, that Cruz is being treated with a virtually unprecedented lack of deference and respect by his Senate colleagues, including every member of his own party not named Sen. Mike Lee of Utah.
For the second time, Cruz has been denied a sufficient second to call up a roll call vote. The first time it happened, back in late July, I wrote a piece explaining the procedural significance of this. I refer you to that if you are the kind of geek that needs to understand how the Senate actually operates.
The big picture is that, in July, Cruz’s colleagues were angry that he had called Mitch McConnell a liar on the Senate floor which is an actual violation of the Senate rules. This time, however, there was no comparable provocation for retaliation. This time, the Senate Republicans were just tired of his showboating and grandstanding, and they didn’t want to give Cruz a vote that he would turn around and use to criticize them.
Last time, senators lined up to tell reporters why they had slapped Cruz down. This time, it seems more like routine business.
So, in his little time in the Senate, Cruz has managed to alienate himself from his colleagues in a way that I’ve never seen before. There have been similar senators in the past, I guess, but I can’t think of any since Joe McCarthy who can even begin to compare to how the Senate feels about Cruz. And I don’t think McCarthy suffered the same kind of rebukes from his colleagues until he’d been in the Senate for about seven years and was finally censured.
Without any perceptible support outside of his buddy Sen. Lee, Cruz has to try harder to make his conflict with the Senate leadership visible to the base. But it’s really Cruz against the world.
He can get himself on the radio, for example, but we won’t find any sympathetic television coverage. He might be able to have a good moment in a future debate, but that’s not worth much.
It’s not going to be easy for him to reach his potential fans.
He’s also got the worst electability argument of any candidate I’ve ever seen, as even his own colleagues who know him best would never want to serve under his leadership.
I don’t see this Cruz bubble forming. He may see a blip simply because he’s being noisy, but he’s actually more convincing in his role as Donald Trump’s caddie.
Guess the nation and world is fortunate that Cruz was too arrogant and ambitious to run for a lowly House seat and went for the Senate. Had he been smarter and a strategic thinker, he would now be measuring the drapes to move into the Speaker’s office. And still have many good years in which to plot his WH win.
Overall, he’s a slightly smarter, more ambitious, and less patient Walker. On issues, he’s on the wrong side of the trends for all of them. He’s not really the sort of person that can lick his wounds, return to his day job and work really hard to do it better while waiting for another opportunity. (McCain did that twice — Keating five and 2000 presidential run, and a third time, licked his wounds and returned to his day job.) Not seeing a bright political future for Senator Cruz.
If Cruz or anyone else were strategizing a long game to become President, he would be well advised to avoid the Speakership. We have elected only one Speaker of the House into the Presidency: Polk in 1844.
David Trump?
Part of his problem is he’s never needed anyone before. Reading Josh Marshalls memories of him and other recollections it seems like despite being a grade A asshole he plowed ahead. But he’s finally run into an institution that he can’t leapfrog over (hence the presidential campaign to try) and he’s totally unsuited to any kind of teamwork.
ted cruz is a caricature of the famous peter principle: he is an asshole who appears to have risen to his level of insufferability.
I think Cruz is clearly angling for the votes of those people who cheered Boehner’s retirement and want McConnell’s scalp. And those are a non-trivial share of the GOP electorate.
If Donald Trump finally finds a way to burn the bridge on which he is actually standing and plummet into his well-deserved ignominy and obscurity, then Cruz is ready to gather the Trumpenproletariat unto him.
I thought Trump would fade around Columbus Day. If he does, and Carson continues to sleep walk his way through interviews, I could see Cruz maxing out at around 30% of the GOP electorate.
Yes, but if the Republican primaries are a story of pandering to the “government has failed and we need an outsider to fix it” crowd, then I don’t think alienating yourself from the hated Senate is all that damaging. Are you sure this isn’t an “enemy of my enemy” tactic?
I mean, I find Cruz to be extremely unlikable too, but then I’m not the target audience either.
Well, there’s mileage to be made out of bashing Congress and the Republican leadership, but all the candidates are doing that.
Cruz was supposed to stand out not just by being the most vituperative but by being able to wage these heroic protests in the Senate.
It’s not going to work as well as he hoped.
I don’t see how a 2016 POTUS candidate can win running a campaign that rabblerouses loudly around the idea that Congressional Republicans are insufficiently “conservative”. Yet that is the campaign the eventual GOP POTUS nominee is certain to run.
I would describe this as painting oneself into an extraordinarily tight corner.
If he takes off, and I think he very well might, it probably won’t be until much later.
Social Conservatives usually peak late in Iowa. Huckabee, Santorum, Robertson and Buchanan (who list by 3 to Dole) all did not really get traction until a month out.
A history is here:
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/diary/7764/a-deep-dive-into-iowa-caucus-history
He is a completely different candidate than Trump as well.
Seems like a poor read of pre-caucus Iowa polls of the broad category of “social conservatives.” At this time in 2012, that space was occupied by Perry, Bachmann, and Cain — total 42%. When Cain fell off the cliff, the immediate primary beneficiary was Newt and secondarily Santorum. Then they become more informed about Newt’s marital history and infidelities. Plus, he didn’t satisfy that impulse for political outsider that gets mixed in with “social conservative.” Late in the contest, Bachmann began to be perceived as “unelectable” which cut her number in half by caucus day. So, most of them ended up with Santorum and some with Paul.
Today Carson is picking up from where Cain left off and Fiorina from Bachmann. Not a stretch also to view them as anti-Trump voters. They’ll shift by caucus day and mostly as a bloc.
The point was the champion of social conservatives emerges very late. Not sure how what you cite contradicts that. There are other years where the same phenomenon occurred.
That’s the difference between citing the numbers and projective analysis of the numbers.
Admit it’s a more daunting task for the IA GOP than it is for the NH GOP. Play with it based on the current RCP averages and compared to 2012 polling and results
The “social conservatives” (SC) are in the numbers for Carson, Huck, Jindal, and Santorum. No more than half of Cruz’ supported is coming from that quarter based on all his daddy’s preaching in the state. Jindal will be out before voting day — so where do his voters go? What do we know about the voting patterns of these people? They were the 2012 “not Romney” voters. We also know that they are not overtly racist; so, they were the not-Newt voters, but then why did those favoring Cain move almost enmasse in the polling to Grinrich when Cain dropped out?
They wanted a winner not Mitt and Newt had high name ID. In the sixty days between their guy dropping out and election day, they figured out that Newt wasn’t like them. That left Paul and Santorum.
If the remaining SC candidates stay in this race, we don’t know how they will sort out on election day. Will the voters stay within the Carson/Huck/Jindal/Santorum grouping or look outside of it? It depends on how the other candidates are faring. And any of the candidates can crash and burn in the next 120 days. If it’s Trump, Cruz is well positioned to pick up that support. If it’s Carson, it could default to Santorum again, but that’s improbable.