You can go over to CNN and read about the 45 times Hillary Clinton praised the Trans-Pacific Partnership while serving as Secretary of State. For example, there’s the time in November 2012 when she made remarks in Australia:
“This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field. And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world’s total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment.”
Okay, so maybe that agreement didn’t ultimately build in strong enough environmental and worker protections? Could be. I don’t know.
On that same November 2012 trip, she talked about the Trans-Pacific Partnership in Singapore:
“And with Singapore and a growing list of other countries on both sides of the Pacific, we are making progress toward finalizing a far-reaching new trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The so-called TPP will lower barriers, raise standards, and drive long-term growth across the region. It will cover 40 percent of the world’s total trade and establish strong protections for workers and the environment. Better jobs with higher wages and safer working conditions, including for women, migrant workers and others too often in the past excluded from the formal economy will help build Asia’s middle class and rebalance the global economy. Canada and Mexico have already joined the original TPP partners. We continue to consult with Japan. And we are offering to assist with capacity building, so that every country in ASEAN can eventually join. We welcome the interest of any nation willing to meet 21st century standards as embodied in the TPP, including China.”
Maybe those 21st century standards turned out to be more mid-20th century? Could be. I don’t know.
There’s the time in January 2013 when she spoke with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida:
“We also discussed the Trans-Pacific Partnership and we shared perspectives on Japan’s possible participation, because we think this holds out great economic opportunities to all participating nations.”
Maybe the great economic opportunities were a lie she was telling because it was her job to lie? Could be. I don’t know.
What’s clear is that she was working hard to promote the trade deal until her last day at the State Department. From the above comments and the other 42 examples found by CNN, it’s clear that she took her marching orders quite seriously, which I believe is to her credit. She was telling anyone who would listen that this agreement would do wonders for women and was a crucial component of our new Pacific policy.
You can make what you want of this, but she’s singing a different tune as of yesterday.
Speaking at Cornell College in Mount Vernon, Iowa, as part of a two-day swing through the leadoff caucus state, Clinton said that she’s worried “about currency manipulation not being part of the agreement” and that “pharmaceutical companies may have gotten more benefits and patients fewer.”
“As of today, I am not in favor of what I have learned about it,” Clinton said, later adding, “I don’t believe it’s going to meet the high bar I have set.”
I think if you’re a sophisticated person, you understand that when you serve in the president’s cabinet, you’re supposed to promote his policies. If you can’t, you resign. So, if there’s an issue with Clinton’s apparent flip-flop here, it’s less that she once sounded very much like she thought the TPP was a good idea and a critical part of our country’s foreign policy than it is that she didn’t resign in protest over its shortcomings.
More than that, though, this is the type of thing that makes people distrust politicians in general and Hillary Clinton in particular. If you’re an unsophisticated person, you expect to be able to believe that what a Secretary of State says 45 times is not the opposite of what they privately think. And if you are a sophisticated person, you know that Clinton wasn’t lying about how she felt back then. She’s lying about how she feels right now.
Either way, it’s transparent calculating opportunism, where any kind of principle is the first thing sacrificed to the political expedients of the moment.
Don’t get me wrong, Clinton isn’t alone in this. President Obama gave us all a line of bullshit on renegotiating NAFTA when he was running in the Democratic primaries in 2008. Fortunately, he didn’t do it in 10 different countries on 45 different occasions or in any considerable detail. But he still did it.
And, you know what? People didn’t like it. It made them cynical. It took away a lot of trust in the circles that care deeply about trade issues and economic dislocation.
In this case, I’ve already seen a lot Obama loyalists on Twitter treating Hillary’s turnabout as a treacherous example of personal disloyalty to the president. But the president is a sophisticated man. He’s not going to take this personally.
You shouldn’t take it personally, either. But neither should you believe it.
The main reason it matters is because you can run a lot of thirty-second ads when someone has gone on camera dozens of times and said the opposite of what they’re saying now. These don’t have to be fair or nuanced or properly contextualized thirty-second ads. They will do the trick simply by presenting two conflicting things and letting the viewer decide whether they collectively amount to someone they can’t trust.
If you want to know how Joe Biden would protect himself on TPP should he enter the race, I have just provided you with the answer. And Bernie Sanders, who won’t run negative ads, may run some kind of contrast ads, too.
Lord knows that the Republicans will use this stuff. They may even put her on a windsurfing board while they do it.
If it all weren’t so serious, I’d just laugh in her face. May Bernie prevail on this issue at the debate with her.
KDrum noted her stated reasons are a bit weak. But anything to make this shitstorm fail.
Henry Wotton, Sr. points out why the statements of an active Secretary of State should be separated from statements of personal opinion.
And there’s a reason he felt compelled to make that point.
If our ambassadors had to resign every time they disagreed with their instructions, we would have none left. She did her job when her job was to represent the President. My only concern is if she will do her job when her job is to represent the American people.
After she was no longer SoS she could have opposed Fast Track when it was still possible to affect the content or passage of TPP. Waiting until it appears to be assured of passage means I don’t believe a word of her newly-found opposition. Like Senators waiting to declare their vote until they know something will or won’t pass and their vote will have no impact on the outcome.
The Secretary of State works for the president. This is really unfair bullshit. Sorry, but it’s true.
Yeah, and?
If you’re tied to an administration, you take the good along with the bad unless you’re seen as forcefully fighting against it. It might be unfair, but every servant of the government is subject to it. She should’ve known the risks when taking the job. Ask Humphrey and Gore about how unfair it was for them to get slimed with the loser stench of events largely out of their control.
Also, she’s not been SoS for nearly 3 years. She was free of the constraints of being a member of Obama’s cabinet and could have voiced opposition to Fast Track approval, as well as what was leaked of the content. She undoubtedly knew more than was leaked, but could have stuck to that without revealing things she shouldn’t. Or simply voice strong “concerns.”
Comparisons are already being made to how the media treated Al Gore.
Passive tense.
The media is always going to treat the Democratic standardbearer as an unserious amateur who needs to be nitpicked to death with stupid center-right bromides. It’s not an Al Gore thing, it’s an all-prominent-Democrats-since-Nixon thing. Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, WC, Gore, Kerry, Obama… all have been victims to the machine. Hell, I don’t think that it’s much of a stretch to say that FDR, Truman, and especially Stevenson got the same treatment.
As long as for whatever reason the media is on a leash by the overclass — and they will be, because even decades before deregulation the mainstream media was firmly in the hands of the elite-fawning establishment — any Democrat should be prepared to be nibbled to death by angry ducks in bowties and horn-rimmed glasses. Most Democrats handle this pretty poorly, but with the rise of alternative media Obama showed that you can pretty much just ignore these buffoons.
Unfortunately, HRC still thinks that her problems are being caused by unfair media treatment (which is true, but so what) rather than the perception that she doesn’t care about the voting public’s interests. She should be working on that. And indeed, her numbers did start to go up again in the past two weeks as she started more aggressively pushing for things of concern to the Democratic base like reproductive rights and gun control and police demilitarization — but she just pissed it all away with this TPP issue.
Hey, Hillary, here’s a PROTIP for you: Americans do not evaluate honesty and integrity by objective standards of fidelity and consistency. To them, honesty means forcefully fighting for stuff that’s in their interest. If Trump went on a weeklong jag about how Southern whites needed to stop whining about the Lost Cause of the South, people would stop boasting about how he ‘tells it how it is’ and his honesty ratings would plummet among these people.
Your argument contradicts itself, unless you support TPP. If Americans value forcefully advocating for their interests over consistency (and I agree with that), and Americans don’t see TPP as in their interests, the clear play is to disown it.
Here’s the problem with that argument: if people believe you’re a liar or a flip-flopper, the chances of them believing that you are for positions that are inconvenient to your history go way down. Voters would rather you be on their side of an issue than be ideologically consistent, but if they think you’re a liar then why would they think you’re on their side to begin with?
See: Clinton and gay marriage. She had a pretty late start on conversion, but it’s not really a problem getting most Democrats to believe that she’ll stick up for LGBT issues because painting her as ‘anti-gay rights all along, thus flip-flopper’ requires a lot of circumstantial evidence (all of which is separated by several years and peters out at around 2010) and some skepticism. Meaning that voters are probably going to overlook it. But painting her as ‘anti-TPP all along, thus flip-flopper’ is much easier, because she has a clear record of support.
Better to be suspected of being on the wrong side than to be known to be.
So is it better to be suspected of being on the wrong side of three arguments or is it better to be known to be on the right side of two and the wrong side of just one? I suppose it depends on whether that person is overall seen as trustworthy, but that didn’t exactly apply to Clinton before her position change.
That’s the problem with being tagged with the flip-flopper/liar slur. It doesn’t just call into question that particular decision, but all of your past and future ones as well. If someone with a reputation for shadiness (but no hard evidence) finally gets caught grievously lying or grossly incompetently performing an arrest or surgery or inspection, do you think that people are going to believe that it was a one-time thing? Or do you think that it’s going to call into question previous and future instances?
Really good piece, Booman.
Just a comment on your last paragraph. Rubio (who likes the TPP’s H1-B visa program) and Cruz (whose wife works for Gold in Sacks) also supported fast-track for TPP.
What is perhaps more interesting, the Koch brothers’ ALEC has always been very enthusiastic about the TPP. GOP candidates particularly sucking up to the Koch brothers, aside from Rubio and Cruz, are Jeb Bush and Rand Paul. “The late” Scott Walker was another.
So I’d be surprised if we hear a squeak about Hillary and the TPP from any of the above. But that still leaves a number of other candidates, the most important of whom is Donald Trump, who smack talks the TPP pretty good.
Don’t be naive.
By the general election, the TPP will be decided one way or the other. What will matter is not what happened to it, but that the Democrat had no clear position on it. It’s a branding thing. They’ve been working on branding Clinton as calculating, lacking principle, and power hungry for two decades now. And she just proved their point.
And even if you want to be sympathetic to her change of position either because her prior position wasn’t freely taken or because you approve of the change, it still is devastating stuff for her politically.
I’m not sympathetic to her at all. But now you’ve made me think about it some more, I have to say that the calculation behind this particular calculated flip flop makes a good deal of sense.
You’re saying that the point at issue is not whether a candidate supports the TPP, or not, it’s Hillary’s calculated flip-flopping, a trait so many voters dislike.
I’m saying that that’s not all that’s involved here. If you take into account that the TPP is extremely unpopular with voters of both parties, well, calling attention to the issue is not an unmixed blessing for the Republicans either. No, they have not flip-flopped, they have supported it consistently — but also very quietly. I don’t think they want to make it an issue, given how unpopular the TPP is with their base as well.
You write, “By the general election, the TPP will be decided one way or the other. What will matter is not what happened to it but that the Democrat had no clear position on it.” Yes, but what the candidates do with it from now on has the potential to influence how it will be decided,
When you say “that the Democrat had no clear position on it.” you’re saying you’re still sure that Hillary will be the candidate. Under the circumstances you describe, that would give “the Republican” a huge advantage. But only if that Republican is Trump. And that is a nightmare scenario, and it’s all the more reason why she should NOT be the candidate.
Hillary has now put herself in the position to fight against it, and if the fix is truly in for the TPP she can “fight” as hard as she likes and end up looking like a defeated hero. That would be very characteristic of her.
If there’s really any chance of defeating it, she’ll look even better.
But there are only two candidates that really have the leeway to use support of TPP OR flip-flopping on TPP as a weapon — Trump and Sanders.
If TPP doesn’t pass, then it’s defused as an issue for the general. If it does pass, it’s a huge issue for the general, but there are very few candidates that would be able to use it. Most would have to say it’s going to be wonderful.
Looking at the whole picture, I think the interplay with the TPP, pass or no pass, will help Sanders more than anyone.
If it should not be passed before the election, does anyone think a Republican president would not pass it after a few personal tweaks. This includes Trump, imo.
It is surely a calculated move. A first move on her chessboard that may herald adoption of Obama’s 12 levels.
This month she’s come out strongly on PP as well as Wall Street & gun control. Her aggressiveness, on topics the Dems care about, is appealing and I hope it only builds to effect candidates in lower races. Important part is she’s being aggressive.
To go negative on TPP gives her campaign more fire power than she’d get supporting it. It’s something she can gain ground on. Doubt she’d be this aggressive this early on if it weren’t for Bernie. He has demonstrated foresight into these issues early on, Hillary moves more along the lines of ‘coming around’.
That it took her this long to get to this point certainly fuels the reasoning that she was 4square for it before she was convinced she’d lose ground against Bernie. We need Bernie.
The Secretary of State is supposed to argue the administration view, not her own. Clinton is not in the administration anymore. I don’t see much of a problem, politically or otherwise.
Yeah, this was not one of our esteemed host’s better efforts. But hey, even Homer nods.
Consistency is overrated. What matters is getting the policy right in the end. I get why Ezra Klein is losing his shit – he supports TPP. No one really cares about flip flopping. They care about where the politician winds up. When Obama flipped on the Cadillac tax after running ads against McCain on it, I was pissed – because I didn’t like the policy. His flip on marriage was just fine.
Admit it. You would have come down on her just as hard or harder if she had come out strongly in favor of TPP – unless you actually support it. But you’re perfectly willing to aid and abet the Goreing of another Democrat.
I’ve never thought the TPP would pass or that the administration ever really thought it would pass. I’m surprised it’s gotten this far.
But, politics 101 is that people absolutely hate flip-flopping. If you go to a political organizing training anywhere in the country, you’ll learn that defining your opponent as flip-flopper is one of the three basic tools of political combat. It’s really second only to defining them as “not like you.”
Which is why Republicans denied Mitt Romney the nomination, and why Democrats abandoned Obama after his switch on marriage equality.
Accusing your opponent of flip flopping makes some sense in a primary, but only because the real argument is that your opponent doesn’t genuinely believe the new position. Trump is the only Republican who would want to make that argument – because the others want to deflect attention from their continuing support for TPP.
You kidding me, Al Broccoli? Republicans are absolutely shameless about accusing Democrats of what they’re doing or want to do, even if the GOP is absolutely worse. See the Romney 2012 campaign and its ‘Democrats cut 600 billion dollars from Medicare!’ nonsense.
I like that she’s separating herself from couple of Obama’s neo-lib policies. TPP and Education reform(charter schools). The only 2 policies Obama’s pushed that have more GOP support than Dem support. She’s also come out against Keystone which Obama hasn’t taken a position on(but probably supports). Another policy that has GOPer support.
Clinton wouldn’t be caught dead windsurfing or dressed in camos hunting for non-human animals to shoot.
I’m starting to wonder whether people who said that the differences in HRC’s publicly stated positions are not a big deal live in some kind of bubble. Did you guys like forget that the whole impetus for HRC’s candidacy is that she’s supposed to be most serious and electable? Like, we’re repeatedly told that it’s not the positions or vision or past actions that matter so much as getting a Democrat into the White House. So why such an amateur-hour mistake?
I don’t support the TPP, but from a ‘win the next election perspective’, what HRC should’ve done was to emphasize her loyalty to the administration, stick to her guns, and assuage the naysayers by offering up policy weregild. Even bullshit ones like ‘I have no intention of honoring the provisions about copyright or corporate anti-environmentalism’. She would’ve taken a big hit, especially if the candidate is Trump or Carson, but it needn’t have been fatally damaging.
So… what the hell? I had sort of suspected that a lot of HRC’s supporters so buy into the victimization and persecution complex that they ignore genuine failings of the candidate, but peoples’ reactions to this whopper of a gaffe confirms it. Like, do they honestly think that the GOP is not going to ride that flip-flopping puppy for all it’s worth simply because there’s a theoretically honorable and ideologically consistent explanation for this? Do they think that people are going to view the Benghazi and e-mail server witch hunts and then give her a pass on this because the first two are such obvious bullshit that the GOP is once again crying ‘wolf’?
My two biggest misgivings about her candidacy was that I felt that the demographic changes between 1988 and 2015 flew over her head and that she really and truly bought into that bullshit about balanced budgets and paying down her debt. Now I have a third one: she’s myopic and a gaffe machine. And I bet you that this isn’t going to be her last major gaffe.
An alternative perspective is that Clinton isn’t rigid and as the majority of public opinion on an issue by issue basis flips, as their representative she is duty bound to follow.
Her only failing is that she often misreads the polls and gets too far onto the rightwing side and once there is slow to recognize that her position isn’t some imaginary balanced, middle-ground but “no man’s land.” And if the DFHs would just leave her alone, she’ll get to all the correct places, eventually.
Had she flip-flopped on Iraq in 2005 and eaten a whole humble pie then, would she now be in her seventh year as POTUS?
Politicians don’t earn respect by flip-flopping or getting it wrong in real time on major issues. However, the public doesn’t much like those that get it right, or close enough, in real time even as they come to respect them. Not too different in the private sector. Better to be liked than respected.
Which is why you sort of need to be able to predict how an issue will turn out. For example, this is why I’d give Kerry some wiggle room for his Iraq War vote that I wouldn’t give for Clinton or anyone else who wasn’t running for a high-profile position in 2003 or 2004. The Iraq War may have been popular at the outset, so from an amoral ‘get me elected’ perspective you could support the AUMF, but every indication showed that it was going to at absolute best be Boring Old News and in all likelihood end up being a dog’s breakfast after a couple of years.
Politicians who place too much emphasis on the now and winning current news cycles often get themselves into these situations. Which is why, short of the mother of all positive black swans, I think that HRC is going to be tasting defeat again in either 2016 or 2020.
I’d give Kerry some wiggle room for his Iraq War vote that I wouldn’t give for Clinton or anyone else who wasn’t running for a high-profile position in 2003 or 2004.
That makes his vote seem even worse — based on nothing other than near term political calculation for his own benefit. Right along with Edwards, Gephardt, and Lieberman. (Okay, those three were worse because they didn’t just reluctantly vote for it, but actively pushed for it.) Good riddance. Bob Graham was the only Senator in the 2004 race that got it right; but again, he was one of those people that get respect but aren’t liked. (Gore was a fool for choosing Lieberman over Graham.)
Whatever makes you think that Clinton didn’t have her eye on 2004 at the time of that vote? She did have nine months from then to see how it was shaking out before deciding.
From a moral or humanity actualization perspective, I’m not excusing the Iraq War vote at all. I’m just pointing out that from a cynical ‘get me elected’ perspective, it was stupid for a lot of senators. I think it was a stupid vote for any Democrat back then (as I’ve long maintained that well-run wars don’t help politicians) but a Democrat running for President in 2004 who voted for AUMF was less stupid than someone running for President 2008. Whether you would prefer to have your leader be stupid or evil is an open question, but I think both of those are worse than a leader that’s stupid AND evil.
iirc a number of House members and possibly a few Senators claimed that they felt pressure from their constituents to vote for it. More likely they feared if they didn’t vote for it that they would lose their 2004 re-election bids. As DEM only lost two seats in 2004, it’s undefined if the 82 DEM yeas inoculated them or not.
In the Senate, there were four DEM retirements. Three voted yea and one nay. All four open senate seats were won by Republicans. Daschle voted for it and lost outright. The two retiring Republicans (voted yea) were replaced by Democrats.
As House Reps are supposed to represent their constituents, we could consider cutting them some slack if they claim that their constituents demand stupid and evil from their Rep. But wouldn’t we also have to give the same consideration to current Reps who make the same claim for defaulting on the debt?
The Senate is supposed to be deliberative and above making crass and politically opportune decisions that conflict with “doing the right thing.” So no, none of them get a pass. Least of all the ones that attempted to parlay a stupid and evil vote into a path for a promotion to the WH.
If voters held politicians accountable for their acts, democracy might work a bit better.
“So why such an amateur-hour mistake?”
Not a mistake. The only alternative would have been to continue supporting it, which would have been a much bigger mistake.
She was boxed in by the past, which nobody can change (at least not in these days of the Internet), and by the fact that times have very much changed. That could happen to anyone, especially to a trimmer like Hillary.
I really don’t think that it’s much of a mistake in of itself. The big problem is that it fits nicely into a memeplex of ‘Hillary Clinton won’t do much for the little voter’ because of her other economically centrist positions. If she wasn’t boxed in by those she could squirm out of the TPP situation by going ‘but I have a plan for free college and complete debt forgiveness plus tax credits for families who go to college’. But she shouldn’t be letting herself get boxed in by such positions to begin with, so I have no sympathy for someone who put herself into a situation where a single straw became back-breaking.
I can’t disagree with that. I wasn’t expressing sympathy, I was just trying to be objective.
maybe the TPP is that renegotiating, it included Mexico and Canada after all
For all we know she DID resign over TPP. Certainly she did resign to give herself some space from Obama, which is near the same thing.
This is Hillary Clinton. If she had in any way shown anything but complete and utter support for Obama, no matter the issue, the media would have screamed it from the roof tops. CNN is being hacks here, because they would have spent 24/7 if Hillery had so much as blinked while Secretary of State, even if it was because she got something in her eye.
God, what wankers our media are.
.
If Clinton only had doubts about TPP and chose to resign to get more perspective on it and other matters, why wouldn’t she at a minimum leak that to friendly reporters? Surely if that were the case she’d have an e=mail or two documentation to support that.
Your idle speculation that she resigned over TPP is hogwash. She resigned to spend more time on her 2016 campaign — possibly advanced by a few months to deal with her health issue.
HuffPo ‘Draft Biden’ Super PAC Cancels Plans To Air First Ad
At Biden’s request because it was unseemly. OTOH, Clinton’s TPP move did checkmate Biden.