The following table is reproduced from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm I am not proficient with HTML, so please excuse the uneven columns. You will see even columns at the source cited.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. ended
2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Oct.
2015
All items……………… .1 .4 .3 .1 -.1 -.2 .2 .2
Food…………………. .0 .0 .3 .2 .2 .4 .1 1.6
Food at home…………. -.2 -.2 .4 .3 .3 .3 .1 .7
Food away from home (1).. .2 .2 .2 .0 .2 .5 .2 2.9
Energy……………….. -1.3 4.3 1.7 .1 -2.0 -4.7 .3 -17.1
Energy commodities……. -1.9 9.6 3.1 .7 -4.1 -8.6 .4 -27.8
Gasoline (all types)…. -1.7 10.4 3.4 .9 -4.1 -9.0 .4 -27.8
Fuel oil (1)………… -8.4 .7 -1.9 -3.4 -8.1 -2.4 -1.1 -32.9
Energy services………. -.5 -1.0 .2 -.6 .5 -.4 .2 -2.9
Electricity…………. .0 -1.2 .2 -.4 .3 -.5 .4 -.5
Utility (piped) gas
service………….. -2.6 .0 .3 -1.4 1.2 -.3 -.7 -11.0
All items less food and
energy…………….. .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .2 .2 1.9
Commodities less food and
energy commodities…. .1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.7
New vehicles………… .1 .2 .1 -.2 .0 -.1 -.2 .1
Used cars and trucks…. .6 -.4 -.4 -.6 -.4 -.2 -.3 -1.4
Apparel…………….. -.3 -.5 -.1 .3 .3 -.3 -.8 -1.9
Medical care commodities .1 .4 .0 .1 .3 -.2 .2 2.8
Services less energy
services………….. .3 .2 .3 .2 .1 .3 .3 2.8
Shelter…………….. .3 .2 .3 .4 .2 .3 .3 3.2
Transportation services .1 .7 .4 -.2 -.3 .1 .2 1.8
Medical care services… .9 .2 -.2 .1 .0 .3 .8 3.0
Note the following from the last column:
Food up 1.6% with restaurant food up 2.9%
All items less food and energy up 1.9%
Medical care commodities up 2.8%
Medical care services up 3.0%
Services less energy services up 2.8%
Transportation services up 1.8% despite the drastic drop in fuel prices.
Energy down 17.1%
Gasoline down 27.8%
Fuel oil down 32.9%
This all rolls up into an overall 0.2% rise, insufficient to trigger any COLA’s for Social Security or federal pay.
It also triggers calls for the Federal reserve to not raise interest rates “because there is no inflation”.
However, I contend that there is a general inflation near 3% masked by an utter collapse of energy prices, not due to the economy, not due to lack of demand, but due to a worldwide glut resulting from geopolitical factors not economic factors.
The Federal Reserve has a target rate of general inflation of 2%. We are quite a bit above that. Janet Yellen should not be playing cat and mouse every two or three days with press conferences constantly speculating that they may or may not raise interest rates in December in a blatant stock market manipulation..
They should have raised them right now in November.
I do not have an explanation for grocery prices being lower than restaurant prices. Not every item in the supermarket goes into the index. There may be a glut in one or more of the grocery index items. I do note that milk is quite a bit down from the summer prices. Also, the term “restaurant prices” is a bit murky. A restaurant can be anything from McDonald’s to the Stork Club or Charlie Trotter’s.
Update [2015-11-25 16:47:14 by The Voice In The Wilderness]:: I heard on BBC radio news this afternoon that world oil supplies are at their highest level since 1930.