Progress Pond

Is there really no inflation?

The following table is reproduced from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm I am not proficient with HTML, so please excuse the uneven columns. You will see even columns at the source cited.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
 average

                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from            
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              Apr.  May   June  July  Aug.  Sep.  Oct.   ended
                              2015  2015  2015  2015  2015  2015  2015   Oct.  
                                                                         2015  

 All items………………    .1    .4    .3    .1   -.1   -.2    .2       .2
  Food………………….    .0    .0    .3    .2    .2    .4    .1      1.6
   Food at home………….   -.2   -.2    .4    .3    .3    .3    .1       .7
   Food away from home (1)..    .2    .2    .2    .0    .2    .5    .2      2.9
  Energy………………..  -1.3   4.3   1.7    .1  -2.0  -4.7    .3    -17.1
   Energy commodities…….  -1.9   9.6   3.1    .7  -4.1  -8.6    .4    -27.8
    Gasoline (all types)….  -1.7  10.4   3.4    .9  -4.1  -9.0    .4    -27.8
    Fuel oil (1)…………  -8.4    .7  -1.9  -3.4  -8.1  -2.4  -1.1    -32.9
   Energy services……….   -.5  -1.0    .2   -.6    .5   -.4    .2     -2.9
    Electricity………….    .0  -1.2    .2   -.4    .3   -.5    .4      -.5
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service…………..  -2.6    .0    .3  -1.4   1.2   -.3   -.7    -11.0
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy……………..    .3    .1    .2    .1    .1    .2    .2      1.9
   Commodities less food and                                                  
      energy commodities….    .1   -.1   -.1   -.1   -.1    .0   -.1      -.7
    New vehicles…………    .1    .2    .1   -.2    .0   -.1   -.2       .1
    Used cars and trucks….    .6   -.4   -.4   -.6   -.4   -.2   -.3     -1.4
    Apparel……………..   -.3   -.5   -.1    .3    .3   -.3   -.8     -1.9
    Medical care commodities    .1    .4    .0    .1    .3   -.2    .2      2.8
   Services less energy                                                        
      services…………..    .3    .2    .3    .2    .1    .3    .3      2.8
    Shelter……………..    .3    .2    .3    .4    .2    .3    .3      3.2
    Transportation services     .1    .7    .4   -.2   -.3    .1    .2      1.8
    Medical care services…    .9    .2   -.2    .1    .0    .3    .8      3.0

Note the following from the last column:
Food up 1.6% with restaurant food up 2.9%
All items less food and energy up 1.9%
Medical care commodities up 2.8%
Medical care services up 3.0%
Services less energy services up 2.8%
Transportation services up 1.8% despite the drastic drop in fuel prices.
Energy down 17.1%
Gasoline down 27.8%
Fuel oil down  32.9%

This all rolls up into an overall 0.2% rise, insufficient to trigger any COLA’s for Social Security or federal pay.
It also triggers calls for the Federal reserve to not raise interest rates “because there is no inflation”.

However, I contend that there is a general inflation near 3% masked by an utter collapse of energy prices, not due to the economy, not due to lack of demand, but due to a worldwide glut resulting from geopolitical factors not economic factors.
The Federal Reserve has a target rate of general inflation of 2%. We are quite a bit above that. Janet Yellen should not be playing cat and mouse every two or three days with press conferences constantly speculating that they may or may not raise interest rates in December in a blatant stock market manipulation..
They should have raised them right now in November.

I do not have an explanation for grocery prices being lower than restaurant prices. Not every item in the supermarket goes into the index. There may be a glut in one or more of the grocery index items. I do note that milk is quite a bit down from the summer prices.  Also, the term “restaurant prices” is a bit murky. A restaurant can be anything from McDonald’s to the Stork Club or Charlie Trotter’s.

Update [2015-11-25 16:47:14 by The Voice In The Wilderness]:: I heard on BBC radio news this afternoon that world oil supplies are at their highest level since 1930.

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