That Ted Cruz is not a natural leader of men was perhaps best illustrated recently by remarks Mitch McConnell’s former chief of staff John Holmes made to the Washington Post, “There’s not a lot of love lost for the guy. And it’s not what he’s trying to accomplish or what he says he’s trying to accomplish that bothers people. It’s that he’s consistently sacrificed the mutual goals of many for his personal enhancement.”
Jonathan Chait put it this way:
Millions of conservative activists fail to understand why the [president’s] veto power prevents Republicans from abolishing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, or otherwise carrying on as though they have unfettered power. This lack of understanding by their voters poses the single largest annoyance to elected Republicans. Cruz knows better, and Republicans in Washington know he knows better, which makes Cruz’s repeated insistence that Republicans who refuse to follow his doomed kamikaze missions must lack conviction an intolerable lie.
This friction goes a long way toward explaining why Ted Cruz is so loathed by his Senate colleagues that they have twice gone to the extreme of refusing to offer him the routine courtesy (on the yeas and nays) of a roll call vote. I wrote back in September that:
“…in his little time in the Senate, Cruz has managed to alienate himself from his colleagues in a way that I’ve never seen before. There have been similar senators in the past, I guess, but I can’t think of any since Joe McCarthy who can even begin to compare to how the Senate feels about Cruz. And I don’t think McCarthy suffered the same kind of rebukes from his colleagues until he’d been in the Senate for about seven years and was finally censured.”
It says a lot that a senior Republican senator like Lamar Alexander compared Cruz unfavorably with a kindergartner: “You learn that in kindergarten: You learn to work well together and play by the rules. Another thing you learn in kindergarten is to respect one another.”
Things got tense quickly when Cruz arrived in the Senate in January 2013. He began by accusing nominee for Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel of being on the North Korean payroll. By early March, John McCain had already referred to him as a “wacko bird.” But it wasn’t until last summer that things got absolutely toxic. That was when Cruz took to the Senate floor and accused Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of lying to his face and being in cahoots with Minority Leader Harry Reid–“united in favor of Big Government.”
That was when freshman Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said, “It’s not how you treat a colleague regardless of how you feel.” It’s when Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said, “I think we have to take special care to abide by the rules of the Senate, particularly Rule 19, which is very clear that no senator is to impugn the integrity of another senator.” Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said, “I don’t think that’s leadership. I think that’s demagoguery.”
It soon became clear that the dislike of Ted Cruz spread far beyond the Senate. Then-Speaker of the House John Boehner openly referred to him as a ‘jackass.’ President George W. Bush came right out and said he simply doesn’t like the guy. To drive home the point, Karl Rove went on Fox News and explained precisely why his former boss hates Ted Cruz.
We need to keep all of this history in mind when we think about the collective freakout about Donald Trump. It’s true that many congressional Republicans are having a panic attack about Trump’s potential to cost them their majorities, but as Niall Stanage notes in The Hill, the worst nightmare is being forced to choose between Trump and Cruz.
There are even some people (not necessarily election officials, yet) willing to come right out and put this fear on the record.
“Listen, I think both Cruz and Trump would have a similar impact on the party, neither of which would be very good. I am actually more concerned about Cruz than I am about Trump,” said GOP strategist John Feehery, a former senior leadership aide who is a columnist for The Hill.
Feehery added, “I think Cruz has made a reputation of relentless mendacity … I think he’s a demagogue and I think he’ll destroy the party. I think Trump is much more of a blowhard. But there’s not really a dime’s worth of difference between Trump and Cruz.”
Yet, there’s also a movement afoot (that I’ve noted here twice already) to portray Ted Cruz as a safe and rational alternative to Trump. I was alarmed today to see Jonathan Chait contributing to this meme:
…Cruz’s demagoguery is specific to a certain set of conditions — a world in which Republicans control Congress but not the White House — that by definition would not apply if Cruz won the White House. Unlike Trump, a bona fide free agent, Cruz has given his party no reason to doubt his convictions. If elected, a Cruz presidency would be functionally identical to a Rubio presidency. He would sign the most conservative fiscal and regulatory legislation that could make it through Congress, and appoint reliable movement conservative to the judiciary. Cruz would have more leeway to direct foreign policy, but he might, if anything, steer a more cautious path than Rubio.
All this is to say that Cruz’s irritating demagoguery has given him a reputation as a right-wing flamethrower somewhat out of proportion to his actual policy stances, which differ from those of other Republicans primarily on the margins. His party’s distrust rises in part from personal (and, hence, not entirely rational) considerations. Washington Republicans despise Cruz, but they could learn to live with him, and it’s entirely possible that they will need to do just that.
The presidency is a leadership position. A president is not only the top elected official in the country with responsibility for the Executive Branch and all its agencies, he appoints the judges, commands the military, directs diplomacy, and serves as the head of his political party. It is not “irrational” to distrust a potential president for “personal considerations.” I mean, was it irrational to worry about Bill Clinton or John Edwards’s marital fidelity? Would it have been irrational to argue that Anthony Weiner lacked the character you want in a party leader? If you think someone is an untrustworthy demagogue whose main legacy is “relentless mendacity,” and who “consistently sacrifices the mutual goals” of the party for “his personal enhancement,” is it really irrational to not want them to be your leader?
Imagine Ted Cruz on the stage in Cleveland accepting the nomination of the Republican Party. The last Republican president and his top political adviser hate him. Bob Dole, the 1996 nominee, says he doesn’t like him and strongly suggests that he won’t vote for him. The 2008 nominee thinks he’s a “wacko bird.” The Majority Leader of the Senate is still angry that he was called a liar on the Senate floor. John Boehner thinks he’s a jackass. All but one of his Republican colleagues in the Senate were so furious with him that they resorted to the unprecedented tactic of denying him a simple roll call vote. None of them think he can be trusted to care about their interests. Political strategists all over the place are on the record calling him a demagogue and a liar.
So, then ask yourself, “Could they learn to live with him?”
Yes, they may have to. But don’t expect them to allow it to happen without a hell of a fight.
At least with Trump, there are a few things people admire about him. Not so with Cruz.
Of course he isn’t, because Cruz is after a different demographic. Trump does best among moderate and semi-conservative voters. Cruz is going after very conservative and evangelical votes.
Cruz’s competition is Carson, not Trump.
Cruz can win in a 3 way split between Trump, Carson and an establishment politician in large measure because Trump wins votes historically establishment GOP voters have won.
No one gives a shit what his other Senators think about him.
I think you have consistently failed to understand why Cruz is far more than Trump’s caddie.
The GOP has more to fear from Cruz.
Trump is ultimately a carpet-bagger and no matter how damaging he is, the party doesn’t real own him and once he’s gone it can all probably be washed away.
Cruz on the other hand is a full Party member, a Senator and someone who presents more systemic issues for the party. Cruz will be around long after the Donald has left for the golf course, doing rotten things and making people miserable.
But Trump is also dominating the field and especially Cruz in the South, too. See Florida and South Carolina. Cruz does better than Trump in the Midwest (at least if Iowa is supposed to be a predictor for the area), but it won’t make up for him getting outmaneuvered in the Northeast + South.
Cruz’s only hope is to head Trump off at the pass in the South. Which… will be hard. Very hard. I really don’t see how Cruz under his current platform and history does it unless Trump implodes through external factors.
In South Carolina he leads by 8, that is hardly dominating. Cruz leads Texas, and is second in North Carolina.
Cruz’s path to the nomination lies in consolidating the very conservative vote that he currently splits with Carson.
The demographics in the South are tailor made for Cruz.
Now leading in Iowa polling and getting significant endorsements. His campaign is unfolding according to plan and right on schedule.
I’ve been warning anyone who would listen about this guy since 2013 when it was clear he saw the opportunity and intended to make the GOP’s discontented and increasingly militant rump his own populist constituency.
He’s been one or two steps ahead of everyone all along; we’ll see. How he wins the general election has always been the issue but expect it to be really nasty and high risk for all concerned. This loathsome bastard has made a career of reading the fine print and haggling over process and procedure.
I’ll ask this question again: what demographics does Cruz bring in that W. Bush, McCain, and Romney did not get?
Trump frightens me. He might win white millenials and/or Reagan/Perot Midwesterners who were mostly invisible outside of their zeitgeist. There’s little empirical evidence for how a campaign like his would play out, especially with a Dukakis/BC/Gore/Kerry/Obama/HRC-style Democrat as his opposition.
Unless there’s an economic calamity or Obama/HRC scandal, Cruz does not frighten me. He does not put into play any new demographics. He does not energize demographics that the GOP isn’t already getting in high numbers. The best he can hope for is a Missing White Voters Hail Mary, but unless he can snag non-Appalachian/South white Millenials or get turnout with white +45 year olds up into 80% even this gambit won’t work.
Again. Cruz doesn’t win the general election unless something goes seriously pear-shaped in the global economy, the asymmetrical conflict with Daesh and terrorism generally, great power diplomacy or Hillary’s biography; granted.
But is this a risk we are comfortable with if he were the Republican nominee? Not me.
How popular are The Tan Man, Yertle the Turtle and Lamar Alexander with the conservative base? Not very!! Just see what happened with Cantor. Cruz obviously doesn’t give a crap that he’s not liked by his fellow Senators and GOPers in the House. That’s not why he’s ultimately there for. He’s there to lead an ideological revolution.
I think you just explained in a nutshell why Cruz will win the Republican nomination.
I still have no idea how things are going to shake out when the actual primary votes are tallied. I can’t believe there are enough nutty repubs. out there to make Trump the standard bearer, but if not him, who? It’ll have to be one of these turds. I agree it probably won’t be Cruz.
In situations like this, I like to look at the people who have real money behind the likelihood of a thing happening. That means Vegas, and they’ve had Rubio as a fairly strong favorite to get the nomination for awhile now.
Since when did the people who had real money behind anything know anything? For example, the stakes on the 2007 financial crisis were much, much higher than that behind a simple political bet and yet a lot of Masters of the Universe lost big on their predictions.
Now, granted, I think that Rubio isn’t out yet because the GOP primary is intentionally biased against the (relatively) conservative wing. If Rubio does well on the West coast and Northeast, even though they’re places where Republicans do poorly in the general election, then he can elbow out a victory even after getting creamed in general-election swing or GOP states.
Unfortunately for Rubio, Trump is a huge monkey wrench in that gameplan. Trump does well in areas that are supposed to be Rubio/Bush’s strongholds.
Well, to be fair nobody knows anything – it’s politics.
Comparing Vegas betting lines to the fallout from the financial crisis isn’t really an apples to apples comparison for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which was that in that case the people who stood to gain / lose money were active participants in the gambit. In this case, we’re talking about a strictly observational episode, and my only point is that Vegas does a lot of research where there are sums of money at stake.
But again, nobody knows anything, and it’s also just a view of likelihood at this moment in time. In a month, everything might (and probably will) be completely different.
And all the supposed smart people, like Nate Silver, have been telling us for months that Trump will implode any minute now. And Trump is polling better and better now. Argh!!!
“Curiouser and curiouser!’ Cried Alice…”
Have we fallen so far down the rabbit hole to ever hope to see the light of day again? Scenes from dystopian novels read decades ago are beginning to edge their way into my ruminations.
If I understand correctly, there are 3 items – votes in primary, votes in general, and keeping the GOP together as a party. Trump or Cruz could get the votes in the primary, probably not in the general, and GOP will be on board with neither (that will affect votes in the general, how can they win a campaign without the backing of the party, and if either Trump or Cruz does that the party is damaged. anyway, they may try to run Jebya to save the party and plan on losing the election, or could they run Mitt again? in any event the convention will be interesting
The Republican party has descended so far into dysfunction there is little that can be done to stop him without tearing the party to shreds in public. This, in fact, is Cruz’ great strategic perception.
They haven’t stopped him so far and they’ve tried everything; in 2013 and again last summer. He’s been building a loyal constituency among conservative state and congressional Republicans from the moment he achieved national notoriety in 2013. Publicly shaming him in the media ain’t good enough; in fact it suits his purpose. The disaffected rump of the GOP would rather wreck the place then nominate another establishment squish. Cruz knows this, indeed has facilitated and enabled it.