Something to think about when digesting tonight’s Democratic debate is that the Real Clear Politics polling average for New Hampshire presently has Bernie Sanders leading 48.0%-44.0%. In looking into what happened in the Sanders campaign’s national data section I was able to discover that the number crunchers are pretty confident about Sanders winning in the Granite State.
As a warning, however, I remember when Bill Bradley was similarly well-positioned to win New Hampshire before he got his clock cleaned in Iowa and his advantage disappeared overnight. I think it’s probable that Sanders would win the primary if it was held next week, but the race there is tight and probably fluid enough that Iowa could flip things against Sanders.
And Iowa is looking pretty bad for Sanders right now, mainly because Clinton is consistently polling over 50% in a three-way race. The caveat here, however, is that polling in a caucus state like Iowa is notoriously inaccurate. A month out from the 2012 Iowa caucuses, no one saw Rick Santorum as a threat to win. Organization matters in Iowa.
I think the media, and I’m guilty of this too, has kind of written off Sanders. But he’s still in a pretty decent position. I also think any fair assessment of tonight’s debate would have to acknowledge that Sanders is getting better and better at going toe-to-toe with Clinton. She’s improving, too, but it no longer looks like as much of a mismatch.
I think it’s possible that Sanders could win New Hampshire. Iowa seems like a longer shot.
It’s more of a problem to figure out where Sanders wins next after he wins New Hampshire. But he probably should be getting more respect and attention.
