For the political junkie, the pollster is suspect, but if it is right, there is basically no way to predict what will happen in NH:
Trump 21
Rubio 15
Kasich 13
Christie 12
Cruz 10
Carson 7
Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 4
There are 11 points between first and fifth, and 15 between first and seventh. I am not sure I have ever seen a NH poll like this.
If you ignore the very suspect CBS/YOUGov poll, Trump’s last 3 numbers in NH are, in order, 27, 26 and 21. He won’t win if he is under 30: someone will consolidate the anti-trump vote, which clearly exists in NH.
I was at an event last Sunday and George Bruno, former head of the NH Democratic Party was there. He was very certain: Bush or Rubio will win New Hampshire.
Bush is all over the airwaves, his ads are pretty good, but the GOP rank and file simply doesn’t want another Bush. Rubio is hardly Mr. Excitement, Kasich is doing a pretty good Huntsman impersonation,and Chris Christie is, well Chris Christie. Cruz is a terrible fit for NH.
So I have no idea.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html
