I began a reply to centerfielddj…a generalized pain in my ass most times on this site, but I continue to try to answer him because his kneejerk leftiness is a useful tool…on Booman’s recent post Trump and the NFL.
Centerfielddj wrote:
…you remain unwilling to grapple with what a Trump general election campaign would do for general election turnout from non-whites. Since you, me, and multimillions of other white Americans would turn out to vote against Trump, the certainty that Trump would motivate non-whites to also turn out to vote against him and for the Democratic candidate is a rather big obstacle for your prediction here.
White supremacists are openly campaigning for Trump, and Trump has no problem with that. You think that wouldn’t be a problem for his general election prospects. I think you’re dead wrong.
Here is my response.
I actually hope that you are right. But I don’t think so. Here’s why:
Read on.
Here’s why:
Number one: “White supremacists” campaigned for Bush II as well, and he won. He needed a little vote fraud to seal the deal, but both Gore and Kerry cooperated. “For the good of the country,” right? Bullshit. For the good of the PermaGov.
Number two: The eventual Dem candidate is going to have one hell of a time convincing minority voters that he or she will be able to do any better than did Obama as far as racial strife and inequality is concerned, and on the evidence of what we see in places like Chicago (Obama’s fucking power base, run by his right-hand Haldeman.), Philadelphia, Oakland, Baltimore and St. Louis, he has failed miserably in terms of promoting peace among the races.
I have written about the following idea here many times, and I am going to do so again.
This election will hinge on roughly 26% of the electorate. Why? How? Because the dedicated, habitual Republican and Democratic voters are going to turn out and vote Republican and Democratic. Duh. Just as it’s always been.
Who are these voters? They are the roughly 30% of the public that sticks by people like Bush II and Obama in the approval ratings even when it has become abundantly clear that they have fucked up royally. That’s 60% of the historical electorate…the “likely voters” of whom the pollsters are so enamored. If non-likely voters turn up in greater numbers than usual this November, those 30% loyalist numbers will diminish somewhat because they will comprise a smaller percentage of the people who vote. How much will that percentage diminish? No one knows. Let us say they end up comprising somewhere between 20% and 25% each of the voters. I’ll be generous and say 25% each. That leaves roughly 50% of the voters in the classic “undecided” category…a bald-faced lie in most cases because almost everyone leans in one direction or the other. What the DemRats and RatPubs have to do is rerach a little over 1/2 of those voters to get a majority. That’s about 26% of the voting public.
Of the candidates for president in both parties so far, which one is reaching new voters most handily? In my opinion it is Trump by a landslide. Bernie is second, the way Cruz is second in the RatPub polls…second by half. Bernie is reaching about 1/2 the number of new or undecided voters as is Trump. HRC? Fuggedaboudit. She’s falling by the minute. She’s almost the DemRat “Jeb!” Old news repackaged one more time once. Only the truly faithful Dems are paying her any mind, and in my opinion she lacks the rhetorical talent to do any better. No charisma, too much baggage. “She’s old!!!” baggage. “Bill!!!” baggage. “Benghazi!!!” and “Emails!!!” baggage. One more piece of baggage falls off her truck and the jig is up. Could it be “Huma!!!”??? We shall see.
Meanwhile, Trump has played the media so well with his politics of outrage and image that even when they have gotten marching orders from their controllers to stop him at all costs they fall flat on their face. The first debate set the tone. It was perfectly obvious that the Fox people were determined to cut the legs out from underneath Trump. How did that turn out? He took them to Trump school. He insulted the shit out of them and then dared them to match his level of outrage. They couldn’t. That was the end of campaign as far as I am concerned. As soon as Megyn Kelly had to go on extended vacation it was a done deal right there. The rest has just been a formality. No one has put anything of any real weight on him. No sex scandals, no dirty dealings with the mob, no nuthin‘!!! “He’s not nice!!!” just isn’t going to cut it. If John Gotti was the Teflon Don then…so far…Trump is the Teflon Donald.
Watch.
AG
