When Scott Walker dropped out of the race, I laughed a good hearty laugh and then I predicted that it would allow Ohio Governor John Kasich to solidify his position as the backup to Jeb Bush. A little while later when it became clear that Jeb’s campaign was really faltering, I said that Kasich “just fits better [than Marco Rubio] as a consensus choice who doesn’t offend too many people and that all sides can basically live with.”
When Kasich didn’t see the expected bump, I began to wonder if my understanding of the Republican establishment and electorate was fatally flawed. I’ve even had nasty comments and a few emails from people who wanted to mock me for ever suggesting that John Kasich might emerge as a serious contender in this race.
Well, there’s a new poll of New Hampshire from the American Research Group, and here’s what it says:
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New Presidential
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I’m not feeling quite as insecure about my prescience at the moment, although I think the American Research Group is a notoriously shitty pollster.
The bottom line is that it’s really down to Kasich or Rubio, as I thought it would be in the beginning. Only one of them can emerge as the antidote to Trump/Cruzism, and my money’s been on Kasich from the beginning.
Iowa isn’t the test. The right-wing caucus-goers are complete troglodytes who thought Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee were reasonable options. The establishment can’t do a thing in Iowa.
If they’re going to make stand at all, it will be in New Hampshire, and it looks like maybe Kasich has a shot at besting Rubio there, as I thought he would way back when.
We will see, BooMan.
We will see.
I hardly think so.
What?
You prefer the Monmouth poll that also has Kasich ahead of Rubio?
Look at the trend. Trump has had the polling lead since June. Kasich has never led. He’s never been close to the lead. Aside from people in the Infotainment Mediums nobody gives a damn about Kasich.
How do I know that? His national numbers are laughable: oscillating between 2 and 4 percent.
The point is that Kasich is emerging as the anti-Trump and Rubio is falling. Christie never was anywhere and Bush only has the Saudis in his corner.
I didn’t mean to suggest Kasich would win in New Hampshire. But he may come in ahead of both Jeb and Rubio. And since Cruz isn’t doing so great in New Hampshire, even a win in Iowa isn’t guaranteed to launch him into second place there. Kasich could come in second or third behind Cruz and still come away as the GUY for the establishment.
Do you think the Establishment is that powerful at this time? This tiger they tried to ride has thrown them.
If the Establishment DID manage to overcome Trump and Cruz it will probably be using some kind of chicanery (after all, what else do they know?). Under any kind of hinky machinations, the TeaHadists bolt.
I’m not saying they vote for a Democrat under any circumstances, but they just don’t vote. For most of Red America that doesn’t matter (MS, AL, TN) but there are plenty of states where it DOES matter (FL, CO, VA, OH, PA, NH) and in many of those states there are Senators up for election (I’m sure the last thing Kelly Ayotte wants is for Reince Priebus and Mitch McConnell to piss of the TeaParty in NH).
Kasich will bring questions none of the GOP want to answer. Like why it is ok for the police to kill a 12 yr old armed with a fake gun? There is no good answer.
The GOP doesn’t have a problem with that question.
My question about Kasich is, what’s his name recognition among Republicans? Or even just among New Hampshire Republicans?
No name may be better than baggage.
When / if Hillary’s numbers fall again as they have over the past two weeks, the media might decide to shift focus to a more electable Republican candidate, like Kasich. If she maintains and wins Iowa or New Hampshire, I think traditional media will continue to do what they’re doing and Kasich won’t get the attention he needs to rise. He’ll need to be able to take advantage of more attention and distinguish himself credible nominee.
With Hillary in the race, as long as she’s leading and likely to win, I don’t see Kasich getting any attention. If it’s Sanders though, Trump will lose coverage immediately and I agree Kasich is the most sensible choice.
Sanders vs Kasich. That could be a pretty good election.
But not as good as Sanders v Trump or Sanders v Palin.
At some point in the near future, each and every registered republican who is not insane is going to have to sit down at the kitchen table and ask him/herself, “Okay, seriously, who the fuck am I voting for?”
And, yes, at that point, Kasich could come out on top.
Not when his national support is between 2 and 4 percent and he lacks money, political support, and organization.
All of which he could get quickly if he does well in NH.
here?
Watching all the hoopla from Trump over his imminent Palin endorsement and thinking she could help Trump in Iowa and break Cruz’s rise in polls.
But in New Hampshire, her endorsement could be just the right straw to give Kasich even more momentum.
Remember when Kelly Ayotte called on Sister Sarah for help in her election? I don’t think the libertarian children are going to like Kasich anymore than anyone else on the crazed right.
Remember, Kasich wants more than just to deport all current non-green card holders. He actually thinks climate change is happening. He’s not a big fan of fracking. His views on religion in government are arm in arm with Fundamentalist Christians … but are a distinct turn off to all other Christians. His positions on gay marriage are essentially those of a thinking person who is generally opposed ie: the Fundie right hates it even more than they hate the left LBGQT who “are pushing the gay agenda”.
I agree that he will probably be the establishment alternative to Rubio. But so what? So was Romney.
Kasich is the anti-Trump. Substance over style, experience over bravado. If you want something which doesn’t involve bloviation, Kasich would be a good choice.
Personally. I don’t think the R “establishment” is at all worried about either Trump or Cruz. I think the establishment has decided to sit this one out and let the crazies take their lumps.
If, as the general wisdom says (which is always problematic), Hillary wins the nomination the “Establishment” won’t care. I’d think they’d PREFER to have Kasich or Romney or some such person than Hillary. But its a preference, not a necessity (as opposed to Warren for example). But I think they’d rather Hillary than anybody currently running except Kasich. That includes Rubio.
Looks like Sarah had good reason to depart Wasilla, Track was arrested yesterday on assault charges
Republican Family Values
One freaking day after I mocked you about Kasich.
One freaking day!
.
Two points: it’s NH and Kasich and Christie have been the only candidates that have been camped out there for months.
NH Republicans prefer non-fundie type, wackos that don’t sound unhinged. That’s what they’re looking for. They haven’t seen enough of Rubio to know that he’s not just a fundie and wacko, but a real lightweight. If any two of the three, Kasich, Bush, and Christie, dropped out and endorsed the remaining one, that person could possibly win in NH. But it won’t help in IA or SC.
Its difficult to say that NH primary voters prefer non-wackos. Too many independents vote in the primary.
I will agree, however, that the point is moot. NH Republican PRIMARY voters do seem to favor the non self-immolation candidates.
Only meant non-fundies. Wackos that don’t sound unhinged seem to do fine with NH GOP voters.
ARG, as bad as they are, were the first to catch Dean deteriorating in New Hampshire (which started about 3 weeks before Iowa).
New Hampshire resembles the ’04 Democratic race in Iowa and the ’88 GOP race in Iowa. In both a two way fight with focused negative advertising worked to hurt both candidates. In the past 3 weeks the negative advertising here in NH has focused on Christie, Rubio and Bush. It has clearly hurt Christie in some polling.
It would not be a shock for Kasich to benefit.
A big problem with Kasich is that the establishment seems to hate him as much any of the other choices. People haven’t been taking Kasich seriously up to now because he hasn’t been able to raise any money. Part of that is undoubtedly that Jeb? suckered up most of the available big money, but another big part of that is that Kasich says things to these guys that they don’t like hearing. This is what potentially makes him a dangerous general election candidate, but it has caused the deep pockets to spurn him up until now.
So, if Kasich does pull out a surprisingly strong second or third place finish in New Hampshire, he doesn’t have the resources to capitalize on it in subsequent states and it’s not clear that the deep pockets who have shunned him so far will quickly open the flood gates based on that signal. He’ll likely see some uptick in donations, but will it be enough to smother Rubio and Jeb? Those guys will almost certainly stay in until Florida, and unless they both collapse before that primary, at least one of them will survive past Florida. And all this time Trump and Cruz will be battling for bigger chunks of each prize, unless one of them suffers a collapse (if Cruz loses Iowa, I could see his support collapsing).
The southern primaries aren’t places where I would expect Kasich to show strength. How does he maintain momentum after South Carolina turns up its nose to him? What’s the scenario where Kasich is able to consolidate “consensus” support quickly enough to have a seat at the table in a split convention?
I don’t see much more hope for Rubio or Jeb? either. I just don’t see the scenario where one of them consolidates enough support to have a fighting chance barring Donald Trump having a heart attack or Ted Cruz getting caught with his pants down in bed with a gay hooker.
On September 16th, I posted this ridiculous comment:
“I still think Kasich has the best chance to win the election for the Republicans, so I expect him – somehow – to be nominated. I also expect him to select Susana Martinez as Veep, since she is a bright, dynamic Latina – much smarter than Rubio. I think that combination would be the toughest combination for any Democratic candidate to beat.”
After hearing Kasich a bit in the “debates,” I am not so sure he would be as hard to beat as I previously thought. But he still is governor of Ohio, and for me that says it all. Unless people really think Rubio can win Florida (he is not really liked there), the GOP would be stupid to nominate anyone else.
IMHO.
Kasich is a non-starter. Too RINO, too hated (really really hated) by the RWNJ. From who I have talked to, anyway.
You’re right.
Kasich has more chance in a general election than anyone currently running. I’d expand that statement to say ” or conceivably running”. So what. Doesn’t mean diddly to the RWNJ who actually provide the boots on the ground during the general elections. As far as I can see, he’s a low rent Romney.
Susanna Martinez IS a force to be reckoned with. But not right now. She is far too intelligent to be associated with the absolute losers currently in the clown car. I look for her to make an appearance after the TeaParty fever has done its work and leaves the R party … or the R party leaves them. It wouldn’t surprise me if she switched parties. I wouldn’t be $$ on that tho.
Rubio is dead meat. He couldn’t get re-elected in FL as senator. Bridges are still burning as this is typed.
Please note that ALL of the above is said given the situation today. Things change. Shit happens. We’ll see what we will see.
Kasich can’t possibly win the general. He’s a socialist.
LOL.