When Scott Walker dropped out of the race, I laughed a good hearty laugh and then I predicted that it would allow Ohio Governor John Kasich to solidify his position as the backup to Jeb Bush. A little while later when it became clear that Jeb’s campaign was really faltering, I said that Kasich “just fits better [than Marco Rubio] as a consensus choice who doesn’t offend too many people and that all sides can basically live with.”
When Kasich didn’t see the expected bump, I began to wonder if my understanding of the Republican establishment and electorate was fatally flawed. I’ve even had nasty comments and a few emails from people who wanted to mock me for ever suggesting that John Kasich might emerge as a serious contender in this race.
Well, there’s a new poll of New Hampshire from the American Research Group, and here’s what it says:
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New Presidential
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I’m not feeling quite as insecure about my prescience at the moment, although I think the American Research Group is a notoriously shitty pollster.
The bottom line is that it’s really down to Kasich or Rubio, as I thought it would be in the beginning. Only one of them can emerge as the antidote to Trump/Cruzism, and my money’s been on Kasich from the beginning.
Iowa isn’t the test. The right-wing caucus-goers are complete troglodytes who thought Pat Robertson and Mike Huckabee were reasonable options. The establishment can’t do a thing in Iowa.
If they’re going to make stand at all, it will be in New Hampshire, and it looks like maybe Kasich has a shot at besting Rubio there, as I thought he would way back when.