This is via IPhone and I can’t format easily. But at 2:05 am a post
Warning my blood is up
They gave me the packet at 5. Precinct 224 a single delegate that we would lose. But the sanders had Iowans for precinct captains everywhere in Des Moines but my Pricinct. It was in a gym that was shared with 225 and 226 and I could help
10 delegates at stake
The start was slow. As in 08 the Clinton people filled up the bleachers (which they allocated for themselves ). And then someone said look outside the gym. And at 635 a line snaked outside the school and into parking lot
It was in that moment when we realized everything written about turnout was nonsense Out precincts plus two other at the scool would blow turnout away. And we precinct looked at the bleachers full of old people and the line full of people under 40
Our hand count at 650 was bad. But we saw the line and thought there was hope
But
But the party didn’t have enough new voter forms
It was a few minutes later that I got into it with the Iowa site chair. The party fucked up. At 730 no caucus had started and the party person suggested the people in line should have gone hone
Let me explain something. I have been a part of Florida legal protection for a decade. I play by Florida rules. And in front of about 30 people I lit into him. The party support was awful and young people. – likely sanders supporters were leaving. I have seen this shit before
But in Florida I had backup. A boiler room willing to go into federal
Court. I had none if that. So I bluffed. Sone of the Clinton people agreed
But make no mistake what I saw was the same shit as i saw in Florida
224 went first. A clear and expected loss
226 went second. 67 votes for sanders 54 for Clinton. A 2 to 1 delegate split. 225 went last; 117 for Clinton 103 for sanders. A 3 to 3 spliced
Total Raw vote195 Clinton 191 sanders. Delegates split 5 – 5.
It is 845. But 221 222 and 223 were still checking people i
One of those precincts of which we expected a 4 to 2 split hS not reported
Much more to say. But too tired
3 delegates split 2 to 1
351
Three hours left. No one really knows what will happen
Q poll this morning giving everyone hope
Notes
Omalley may win one county jasper
The worry is still about the kids
One county chair is changing location supposedly ro allow for hire turnout. No sanders person believes this
6:00 am
Two new polls side. One has it 20-19-19 the other has it 27 25 22
Clear sign of a late Rubio surge. That has been the buzz over the last 12 hours. Talk to some people who think trump support is real in rural areas. But trump has no real organization and Cruz and Rubio do
In every Iowa cycle a candidate has beet their number 5 days out
Rubio looks like the most likely to do that
It’s late, and I start at 4 tomorrow am. So I am putting this at the top.
Started by canvassing for Bernie. Bernie has a lot of volunteer power, and though they started late they have finished much.
There is an emerging consensus on the race. I have spoken with a lot of Bernie people and I have friends in the Clinton camp. Some points in no particular order:
1. There is evidence in rural counties O’Malley will be viable. In 4 delegate districts there is concern in Sanders camp that this result in a 2-1-1 split instead of a 2-2 split.
2. I think the Clinton people have an edge that stems from having run before, and as a result having known supporters. This helped Edwards in 2004. I think they know who is for them a little better than Sanders does.
3. Will the kids come home? I talked to a Sanders person who told me the caucus will be decided by the under 25 vote. Will they leave UofI and ISU and NI and go home and caucus? If not, 25% of Sanders vote is packed in about 12% of the delegate precincts.
Irony – in 08 the worry is the kids wouldn’t go back to school.
Spoke with Dan Balz from the Washington Post about New Hampshire. If Bernie does well he thinks Bernie can easily survive a narrow loss in IA. What constitutes doing “well”. He cited me the Justice Powell line about pornography – we will know it when we see it.
Ladies and gentleman – I give you our national press corps.
On the GOP side the talk is really about the three way race. There is a poll out tonight showing a three way tie. That is not what the DMR found – but I think something big is in the offing on the GOP side.
Meanwhile, Bernie is up 25 in NH and everyone says the same thing: If Bernie wins NH and NV he will have Clinton on the run. But no one knows what is happening in Nevada.
Tomorrow morning I go to morning joe.
My apologies – I believe the diary I had before was somehow deleted.
I get to Iowa Friday. I work a precinct Monday
Make what you will out of the polls. About 30 – 40% of Iowa voters decide in the last week according to the exit polls. What happens in the last days will matter.
I have no idea what will happen. No one else does either.
I will keep this as just a thread of observations like I did at open left in 08. A friend and Clinton supporter tells me Sanders is winning the yard sign war by a huge margin in Cedar Rapids. Make of it what you will
I know the Clinton people were late with the signs in Iowa. They are late in New Hampshire was well
.
But as the Obama people said over and over again in Florida in 2012 – Yards signs do not vote.
Iowa is it. The one chance to stop the neoliberals – perhaps
for 8 years. The one chance progressive politics has to make a dent in the system. The stakes are enormous. Iowa and New Hampshire are the best opening liberals have – and maybe the only one. They are small enough so that you can have at least an even fight. The only place in the process where money does not play an outsized role.
It is one of the ironies of politics that talking about it is fascinating, and being active in it can be boring as hell. Being active means cold calling strangers, standing on their doorsteps, hanging literature on doors. For the last 10 years or so it has meant getting up early on a Florida morning in November to be at a precinct when it opens, and staying all day and try and stop voter suppression.
There is nothing glamorous about it.
Sanders is so not a perfect candidate. But 35 years after he became my mayor I am proud to stand with him.
Update [2016-1-27 0:1:26 by fladem]:
1/26
New Iowa Poll
Iowa State – 1/5 1/22
Clinton 47 Sanders 45
Cruz 26, Trump 19, Carson 13.4, Rubio 12.3, Paul 7, Bush 4
Only 3% respondents under 30. Those under 30 tend not to have landlines.
ISU polled in 2012 – their results were about average for the time frame.
Carson remains a significant factor in Iowa – he is taking vote that would otherwise go to Cruz. With Cruz getting pummeled by negative advertising and Carson being ignored, Carson final act may be to let Trump win. The date of this poll may have missed Trump’s surge in Iowa – if you want to call it that.
Campaign News Stories
Trump will skip debate
Word of a Democratic Debate – is Sanders skipping?. A sign of Clinton desperation?
Sanders to meet with Obama
Update [2016-1-27 8:57:38 by fladem]:
Quinnipiac, Sanders +4, 49-45
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01272016_I62pmst.pdf
Update [2016-1-27 11:24:51 by fladem]:
Cruz estimates GOP turnout of between 126 and 135K, and Dem turnout a little less than 2X that. ’08 GOP turnout was 120K, and Dem 227K. If true look for a big Dem turnout – good news for Sanders.
Update [2016-1-28 8:55:0 by fladem]:
Polls:
Marist 48 Clinton, Sanders 45.
Harold Enten of 538 notes Clinton is up 25 in the poll among verified registered voters, down 18 among those who are not. 538 believes polls not using verified registered voters are overstating Sanders.
Good press for Sanders from meeting with Obama, NBC News Interview
Debate over debates ends with Sanders agreeing, but demanding more
NH polling now a blowout.
GOP IA: Cruz is sinking, some sign of Carson actually increasing.
Dispute over use of LCV logo in Sanders mailers – LCV stays out of the dispute (talked to head of LCV field org in an early primary state)
Update [2016-1-29 13:35:6 by fladem]:
Des Moines impression: I am struck (and in fairness NH is the same way) at how invisible for the most part the Caucus is. I sit eating lunch and none of the tables around me are talking about t. A serious case can be made that post WWII History cannot be understood without some understanding of IA and NH. And yet for all its influence on US and even World events, it is not an all consuming passion. U of Iowa football surely inspires more passion and talk.
I like Des Moines for the most part. Iowans are certainly friendlier than Vermonters (though to be fair who isn’t).
PPP Poll out this morning has it Clinton +8, a shift of 2 since the last poll. Everyone will be focused on the Des Moines Register Poll – which comes out at 5:45 CST.
I start phoning tonight, and canvassing tomorrow
I am writing at Bleeding Heartland today about polling in the last 72 hours. Hint: every national front runner has had their Iowa Margin decline in the last 72 hours.
Canvassng in west desoines
Sanders behind where 3 campaigns where I’m 08
Good volunteers
Less enthusiasm in houses than I expected
Doing ok
Update Sunday 9 cat
The dmr poll came out 45-42-3
I was struck by the high undecided. In the past the tendency has been for the national front runner to lose ground late. Selttzer found no sigh of that as she did in 12 and 08.
The word from both campaigns is Sanders doing better in the inner des Moines suburbs than Clinton. Clinton doing better in the west des Moines suburbs where Obama did well
It’s close.
But the consensus is as sanders vote is over concentrated in precincts. I found Sanders votes who can’t caucus because they have to work. It is easy to forget the caucus makes it hard for working people
Sanders also needs the kids who are at ui and isu to come home
No one is prepared for a result within 1 or 2 points. It is unclear what the impact will be