I can’t improve on Ryan Lizza’s explanation of what’s wrong with Ted Cruz’s mailer to Iowa voters. All I can say is that I’ve been familiar with this general tactic for about six years. I learned about it in a seminar I attended at the Philadelphia Convention Center that was hosted by Keystone Progress.
The way it is supposed to be done is fairly straightforward. You obtain a copy of the state voter file, which will tell you whether or not voters participated in recent elections. Then scores are assigned to each voter. Voters who participate in every local, primary, and general federal election are given the highest score. These folks get themselves to the polls so there’s no point in wasting time, effort and money in trying to get them there. There are voters who vote sporadically, voters who only vote in general elections but never in primaries, and voters who participate often, don’t bother with strictly local elections. There are also some registered voters who don’t seem to vote at all, although they’ll eventually get purged from the list if they don’t show up. The last group are the newly registered folks. They can’t be scored, exactly, but they can be treated as unlikely voters and put on a must-contact list.
Once you’ve scored the electorate, you can generate a list of those least likely to participate and send them a mailer. The mailer will show all the recent elections and whether they voted or not. It will also show whether some of their immediate neighbors voted or not. The message will be stated clearly, but also strongly implied. If you don’t vote, your score will get worse. Not only that, but your neighbors will know that you didn’t vote. In fact, they also received mailers like this, so they already know that you haven’t been turning out lately.
If this is done correctly, it will be completely legal but also tremendously obnoxious. Most people feel that their ballot is a very private matter, and the idea that someone is telling their neighbors about their voting history is galling. It comes across as not only an invasion of privacy but also as a threat.
Yet, it’s probably the single most effective way to get people to the polls.
In 2008, academics at Yale published an influential paper showing that one of the most effective ways to get voters to the polls was “social pressure.” Researchers found that registered voters in a 2006 primary election in Michigan voted at a higher rate if they received mailers indicating that their participation in the election would be publicized. The mailer that had the biggest impact included information about the two previous elections and whether the recipient and his or her neighbors participated or not. “We intend to mail an updated chart,” the mailer warned. “You and your neighbors will all know who voted and who did not.”
What Ted Cruz appears to have done is to take what was already a heavy-handed tactic and ramped it up to eleven. Everything about his mailer is wrong. The top of the mailer says that it’s a notification of a VOTING VIOLATION, which is complete bullshit. Voters are free to vote or not to vote.
Then the scores are given as percentages and letter grades, but without showing which elections and how many of them are being scored. Those who have looked into the scores have confirmed that they’re not based on any actual voting history. The numbers and corresponding grades are just made up.
The mailer also misrepresents how the caucuses work. In Iowa, the secretary of state doesn’t keep track of caucus participation the way they do in, say, Pennsylvania, where we have a primary. As you might imagine, the secretary is pissed off.
“Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for President campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law. Accusing citizens of Iowa of a “voting violation” based on Iowa Caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act. There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. Any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and I believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses.
Additionally, the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office never “grades” voters. Nor does the Secretary of State maintain records related to Iowa Caucus participation. Caucuses are organized and directed by the state political parties, not the Secretary of State, nor local elections officials. Also, the Iowa Secretary of State does not “distribute” voter records. They are available for purchase for political purposes only, under Iowa Code.”
I’ll leave it to election lawyers to figure out if the Cruz campaign violated any laws here, but they clearly violated the spirit of the laws. And they just didn’t execute this correctly. Even done right, the risk of blowback from this tactic is so strong that it isn’t clear that it’s ever worth the costs. But, in a social media world where people can use their phones to take pictures of your mailer and have it on Facebook instantaneously, you can’t cross the line like this.
All the Cruz campaign did was tell thousands of potential voters that they’d made up a score and told their neighbors that they’d flunked the test.
This is what I’d expect from Cruz. He’s all brains and no judgment.
Not if his intent is to piss off many more people in the campaign, and given his history of purposely pissing people off, it might just be he cannot help himself. (snarc off)
…and Trump can “cruz” to victory, by just promising to immediately DEPORT Ted Cruz, and never let him into the US, ever again.
I’d consider voting for that.
The big problem with this approach from his view is that while it will probably make recipients more likely to go to the caucus, they’ll go to vote against him.
These are Republicans we’re talking about.
I went to a Cruz event in Ames yesterday. It was early, and I wasn’t canvassing until the afternoon.
Glen Beck warmed up the crowd, and then Cruz came out. The establishment stuff is great for him – the GOP right is pissed at the establishment.
But he isn’t really a very good performer. I have seen at this point Christie, Rubio and Cruz. Cruz is the least effective – though he is supposed to be this great debater.
His campaign did some things right – they mostly -cleared the GOP field on the right very early – and really he should win Iowa.
But he just has trouble hiding that he is an asshole.
Rubio is ten times the performer Cruz is.
Both, however, are absolutely getting killed with Trump ads showing their flip flops on immigration.
Rubio is ten times the performer? Can Rubio talk extemporaneously at all? He seems like an empty suit that would look lost with out at least note cards.
Just a guess that maybe in person he has more stage presence than he does on TV. Also sounds as if TV blunts some of Cruz’s oiliness.
But you’re right that at the debates Rubio is like a kid that’s memorized a bunch of note cards.
He talked for 40 minutes. He was engaging funny and played off the crowd effectively
Though he did stop to drink water
Every bit as effective as Clinton or sanders
He has a reputation as an empty suite and maybe he is
But what I saw made me scared
I saw him with someone who was Ted Kennedy’s press secretary
He left early. He told me Rubio was making him furious
Which, he, means he was effective
Cruz did not bother him
I
I’m not worried in the least about Rubio. He is almost completely unvetted, and he sure seems dirty. The public has never heard the names Orlando Cecilia (drug lord brother-in-law)and Paul Braman (owns Rubio). They won’t in the primary. But they will in the general election (in the unlikely event that Rubio is a part of it).
Appreciate your actual impressions of the guy. However, like all of us, you have a preference for a certain style/persona in politicians and Rubio seems to me to fit within your preference frame. To project how well a candidate will perform with either the DEM, GOP, or general electorate, one has to get aside one’s personal frames and attempt to see the candidate through one of the other frames. For example, nothing about Trump appeals to me (or ever has), but unlike most of the pundits and bloggers, once I looked at him through other frames it wasn’t a stretch for me to see that he would do well as long as he didn’t choose to self-implode.
One viewing of an individual can also be misleading as it wouldn’t have been apparent to you that what you saw could have been a well-honed and rehearsed performance. Nothing close to that has been seen in any of his TV and national debate appearances.
Jesus, tomorrow’s going to be interesting….
What, a leading Republican politician just makes things up out of whole cloth, and people are upset?
But seriously, Cruz has gotten this far by making stuff up whenever it suits his needs. It may be his strongest skill set.
I guess that, as with so many other things in Wingnuttistan, conventional morality (e.g., the outrqge over this mailer) only applies if it personally impacts you, a family member, or (maybe) a friend.
Remind me again why these people have an outsized impact on the presidential election?
I learned about it in a seminar I attended at the Philadelphia Convention Center that was hosted by Keystone Progress.
Does Keystone Progress still exist?
Nasty is as nasty does.
He’s the nastiest.
A Cruz presidency would end this country as we know it.
Imagine a President Joe McCarthy without the drinking problem to take off some of the edge of his thought processes.
Please no!!!
AG
A voting sore? Is that something like my credit score? With my credit score i can obtain a consumer product on a payment plan and if I’m not satisfied with that product I can return it. With my great voting score, I can obtain a Senator. Can I return my senator if i’m not satisfied?
Reminds me of this. Schneider still sends e-mails. I’ve set a Thunderbird filter to automatically mark them as Spam.
It also reminds me of ComEd sending those letters complaining that I’m using too much electricity. I saved them and compared January and July. Apparently those “most efficient neighbors” never turn on their air conditioners because they don’t use any more in July than they do in January. BTW, the Winter notices congratulate me for using less than the average but say I’m still using more than the most efficient neighbors. Those must people whose houses are always totally dark and never replace the bulb in the yard light. I think they only use electricity for the furnace and clock.
Anyway, the point being that I’m pissed at ComEd and considered getting a large natural gas generator and going off their grid so they stop complaining. I’d be enraged if my voting record and party affiliation were broadcast to my neighbors, even though I’ve voted every election and they must have seen the Howard Dean and Bernie Sanders bumper stickers.
” … I’d be enraged if my voting record and party affiliation were broadcast to my neighbors, … “
In this (Cruz) case, the Cruz campaign never purchased any voting records from the IA Sec’y of States. Those letter grades were made up based on nothing.
But people think they are official. What voters think matters much more than reality.
My impression is Iowa caucus goers are very politically engaged – on the Dem side they give up 4 or more hours, maybe in crummy weather. My guess is most of them have seen plenty of reporting on this story.
(Last I saw, there was supposedly a blizzard reaching the southwest part of Iowa this evening.)
True the Pubs just cast a paper ballot, in and out pretty quickly.
Cruz is even more obnoxious than Trump. That takes some doing.
Not if you have spent your whole lifetime practising to be the biggest arse on the planet.
Everything I have heard about tailgunner ted, his story resembles my quote
The North Carolina Democratic Party failed miserably with the weak tea version of this tactic in 2014. People indeed would rather be watching the government 0r political parties instead of the government or political parties watching them — the fundamental political fallacy of the marketing based campaign is that the politicians are trying to control the voters instead of a process for the reverse. That is the point in the process that the corruption enters whether from Jimmy Madison’s jug of peach brandy or sophisticated Bernays-inspired campaigning techniques.
It’s a good test for latent authoritarianism. Are Iowans ready to be ordered what to do with grades for “citizen performance”? Has the authoritarianism of American education so shaped our politics that we accept the candidate as stern teacher?