The Sword of Damocles hangs by a horse’s hair above all of our heads, not just the rich and powerful. But, due to their lifetime appointments, only Supreme Court Justices have a significant number of people rooting for the sword to fall. Unfortunately for conservatives, yesterday the sword fell on their hero, Antonin Scalia. It could have just as easily have fallen on any of the other eight members of the Court, including the four Democratically-appointed members.
Such is fate. So it goes.
As The Big Lebowski said, “Your revolution is over. Condolences. The bums lost.”
Actually, it’s still a little premature for the left to write the epitaph of the Conservative Revolution. The conservatives are anything but resigned to their sad destiny.
While basic protocol is to observe some decent interval of time before politicizing the death of an important public figure like Antonin Scalia, the Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Chuck Grassley immediately declared that they would not consider any replacement nominee that the president could put forward.
There is no law that can compel the Judiciary chairman to hold a hearing on a nominee, and no law that can compel the Majority Leader to schedule a confirmation vote. The Republicans don’t need to filibuster to avoid the confirmation of Obama’s nominee.
Thanks to the 2014 decision in National Labor Relations Board v. Noel Canning, the Senate Republicans can also easily prevent Obama from making a recess appointment.
There’s also virtually no prospect of shaming the Republicans into allowing a vote, and perhaps even less chance of convincing 14 of them to override a filibuster if a vote were to be scheduled. Finally, even in the unlikely event that a filibuster fell apart, at least four Republicans would actually have to vote for confirmation.
The prospect of Barack Obama replacing Antonin Scalia on the court is completely unthinkable to conservatives. That’s why they didn’t ask for a compromise candidate. They didn’t say that they wouldn’t vote for a liberal justice. They won’t allow Obama to put his dirty hands on Scalia’s chair, and that’s the end of it.
Having spent a night to think about this, I can only envision two possible ways to overcome this visceral resistance on the right to any nominee the president might put up.
The first idea probably won’t work, but it involves putting forward someone who is advanced enough in age that they’re actuarially unlikely to serve for very long on the bench. To give two examples from the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, President Obama could pick someone like David Tatel or Merrick Garland. Both were appointed to the DC Circuit by Bill Clinton. Garland, who is 63, has been seen as a compromise choice in the past. Frankly, he’s probably not old enough to comfort the Republicans. Tatel, however, is soon to be 74 years old. He’s also been blind since 1972 because of retinitis pigmentosa. He’s an accomplished man and a sympathetic figure, and he’s only about five years younger than Scalia was when he died. While he’s known for fighting school segregation, which is kind of like being an employee of ACORN or a member of MoveOn.Org, it might be worth it to the Republicans to have Obama appoint a 74 year old instead of having President Hillary Clinton appoint the 48 year old Sri Srinivasan early next year.
To be honest with you, though, I am almost certain the Republicans would reject this kind of overture. The heat from their base is too hot.
The only promising way around this heat is to go straight to the trump card, which is the clubbiness of the Senate itself. In other words, the president could appoint a sitting senator to the Court. Here the problem, besides the partisan record of the senator, would be having appropriate credentials to sit on the highest court. Someone who sits on the Judiciary Committee, has a law degree, maybe served as a prosecutor, judge, or argued before the Supreme Court…
My two top prospects are Patrick Leahy and Amy Klobuchar.
Now, Leahy is about to turn 76, and he’s the President pro tempore emeritus of the United States Senate, having been in the upper chamber since 1975. Three separate times, he has served as the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, and he’s voted on the confirmation of every remaining member of the Supreme Court. He’s a former prosecutor.
Sen. Klobuchar will soon be 56, so she doesn’t pass the old-age test, but she’s a former prosecutor who sits on the Judiciary Committee. She also has the pedigree: Yale undergrad, University of Chicago law degree. She’s well-liked by her colleagues, telegenic, and would make a very sympathetic candidate for the Court.
If Obama wants to maximize the pressure on the Senate in this situation, nominating either of these two would be a good idea.
Other than that, there’s always the Hail Mary of picking Joe Biden, but I don’t think that’s a good idea for a variety of reasons.
Worth adding to our understanding of historical precedent:
https://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/698632681245044736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Angus Johnston @studentactivism
The longest Supreme Court confirmation process from nomination to resolution was Brandeis, at 125 days. Obama has 342 days left in office.
2:19 PM – 13 Feb 2016
The only way that I see them confirming an Obama appointee at this point is if they lose the Presidential race and the Senate is set to go Democratic. In that case, they would likely approve a centrist Obama pick (Sri Srinivasan or similar) over what they’d likely end up with otherwise.
I guess that it’s possible if republicans dislike their nominee enough (trump, cruz) that they might approve an Obama pick, but given the pressures on the right I sort of doubt that.
I find myself thinking that Chief Justice Roberts may go back to scaling back the scope of the Court’s decisions in the current session on cases where Scalia’s vote was going to provide the majority. Roberts famously promised the Senate Judiciary Committee that he honored stare decisis and wanted to craft narrower rulings which could get unanimous and near-unanimous votes from the Court.
He then proceeded to jam thru maximalist 5-4 rulings on the most important cases to him. Famously, in Citizens United he got the Court to vote on an even more sweeping evisceration of campaign finance laws than the plaintiffs were asking for.
So yeah, the Big Lebowski quote is appropriate today for a number of reasons.
The term’s cases have already been selected by the conservative bloc as being most amenable for maximalist treatment.
So sad.
But now Roberts doesn’t have the votes for maximalist decisions on most of these cases. That was the plan; sure. The Chief Justice will either scale back the scopes of the decisions, or get a deadlocked Court and short-term enforcements of the Circuit Court decisions, or a continuation of the cases to a future Court session. Perhaps not even the 2016-17 Court session, since the Supremes typically end their hearings on cases in February or March, at which point the open Court seat will still be open if the Republican Senators stick to their extreme position.
For the most part, the Circuit Court rulings which the Supremes are considering in the current session don’t serve the desires and goals of the conservative movement. It all creates an interesting set of motiviations for Roberts and the SCOTUS judges.
RE: ” . . . or a continuation of the cases to a future Court session.”
Don’t recall ever having heard of that happening, but whadoiknow?
Let them put it off. Bottom line, we know the public hates it when the Republicans throw temper tantrums and refuse to do their job. So nominate the person you really want for the job and let the Republicans refuse to govern. Use it to push for a bigger win in November.
Yup. I would nominate a candidate that would be willing to drop out after 60 days, wait for the R’s to refuse to have anything to do with them, … Rinse and repeat. Every 60 days.
By the time November rolls around, there should be enough angst in the general population to not only possibly affirm a nominee, but to may provide the straw for the camels back to get rid of a few R senators.
Agree. I suspect the R’s are making a terrible strategic mistake.
“The public” doesn’t have any idea what’s going on or what any of this means.
The view of the electorate we’ve gotten this election cycle confirms everyone’s worst suspicions about the corrosive damange that’s been done to Americans’ basic ability to understand public affairs. Obama’s SCJ appointment will be viewed as an “unlawful” “power grab” just like everything else he’s done.
Of course if Ginsburg had died, we’d be hearing about the extreme urgency of filling the vacancy and how our democracy depends on the President fulfilling his duty to the judicial branch and he’d better not deny his constitutional responsibilities and “this President is not above the law, regardless of what he thinks” and etc. etc. etc.
Since there’d be at least the possibility of a newly elected GOP prez making the appointment in Jan ’17 if they ran out the clock on a Ginsburg replacement nominee from Obama.
Perhaps in December lame-duck session, if they’d lost the prez election. (And perhaps especially if Dems had also gained any seats for ’17. Though that might also give Dems motivation NOT to go along with lame-duck-session confirmation at that point.)
Concur. Comments at work yesterday when the news came were “OMG, he was appointed before I was born” and “wasn’t he kind of conservative?” And then everyone moved on.
Appointing Leahy would put the most pressure on actually getting the Senate to act, because of his personal connections. But politically it would not be the most pressure, because he’s obviously partisan and a fairly close ally of Obama.
The most political pressure, based on what I’m reading, comes from a Srinivasan appointment. Everything written about him I can find is absolutely glowing, he’s worked for both Obama and W, and he was recently confirmed 97-0. Shirking confirmation hearings on him would be extremely painful, and much more so than Leahy or Klobuchar.
Jane Kelly would put a lot of pressure on Grassley, who supported her for the 8th circuit and is up for election this year. But she has nothing like the support of Srinivasan and would put a lot less pressure on McConnell, who is basically the guy who will make the decision to confirm or not.
Cruz voted to.confirm Sri.
Rubio also voted to confirm Srinivasan. I believe they each voted to confirm Kelly as well; both Circuit Court judges were confirmed unanimously by the full Senate..
Here are two Republican appointed judges who would make for an interesting political situation if they were willing to serve.
Reggie Walton
Vaughn Walker
If you want to know how Republicans treat Republicans.
Both are now well schooled in the issues regarding the NSA.
Vaughn Walker is the Circuit Court judge who found California’s Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage, unconstitutional. Oh, and he’s gay.
So no, the Republicans would find him easy to oppose, despite the fact that H.W. Bush nominated him.
Walker’s also been retired for about five years, and he’s 73. I wouldn’t want Obama to nominate him even if he stood a decent chance of confirmation by the Senate, which he does not.
Right — if Obama appoints a gay judge, he’ll be “imposing a liberal agenda on the rest of us” and “infringing constituents’ religious liberty” and “being divisive; turning us against each other.”
(Christ, I’m tired of today’s political climate…)
Who said that the point of appointment, given the Republican announcement of their actions, is confirmation? The appointment show in stark relief who these Republicans are. Their behavior to Republicans is indicative of their contempt for the public and anybody outside the Freedom Caucus.
I tried to post to the previous thread, but I can repeat it here:
For me the Supreme Court is always issue # 1 in a presidential election. I’m hoping that (given the civics lesson mentioned above) that it’s rank among important issues will rise with other voters.
Also, I’ve been thinking that it’s quite possible even yet another opening on the court could happen within this year. Wouldn’t that be a trip!!!
“yet another opening on the court could happen within this year.”
Then it’s game set and match – a 4-3 majority. I mean – it should be 7 anyway – like the 7 Kingsguard – for the seven gods and the seven-pointed star. Oh, wait, wrong horror story.
Senator Cruz is making the case this morning for wholesale and advance obstruction on any President Obama SCOTUS nominee. Chuckie Todd let him falsely claim that it has been 80 years since a SCOTUS nominee was approved by the Senate during a Presidential campaign year (Reagan got Kennedy through a Democratic Senate in 1988 with a unanimous vote), but Cruz’ case came off surprisingly weak.
Todd’s position, which he held in his subsequent interview with Senator Rubio, is “Doesn’t the Senate have an obligation to run a full process and a vote on the nominee?” Chuckie was pretty gobsmacked to hear Cruz and Rubio respond “No.”
I don’t think Chuckie has come to terms with today’s Republican Party. Why is he surprised by this?
Think Leahy would be a mistake. Too old.
Corey Booker is another option.
My top choice is Jane Kelly. She is an appellate court justice who was appointed by Obama and approved in Senate 96-0. Grassely is a huge supporter of hers and as head of Judiciary Committee he’ll be under pressure back in Iowa during his re-election campaign to hold hearings. She was a lifelong public defender and survived a brutal attack against her.
In case you missed it, being old is the compromise, and a preferable one to being conservative.
Corey Booker? This about relitigating Citizens United the right way this time.
Well, for what it’s worth, I heard Lindsey Graham threw Orrin Hatch’s name out there yesterday. Good thing I wasn’t taking a swig of my beer at the time. I would have choked.
Balloon Juice poster AL had a suggestion that might take out another Justice on the Right….”Professor Anita Hill (whose nomination might have the salutatory side effect of killing Clarence Thomas, or at least causing him to resign before the spotlight caught him)”
I concur.
The prospect of putting up Anita made me laugh, anyway. It would just increase Thomas’ self-justified bitterness, so it wouldn’t cause any resignations. Might give him hypertension, though…
His wife. Oh, can you imagine that new phone call to Anita?
Schaudenfreude is brought on by the prospect, sure…
You just won the comment thread.
Congratulations.
I don’t think the Republicans will compromise at all during the primary season. After that, I still think it is doubtful. A 4-4 tie that upholds lower court rulings will actually work in the R’s favor for some cases- and they are pretty good at court shopping for those favorable rulings.
My take is that the only viable strategy to getting an appointment this year (other than complete sell-out, which I guess is theoretically a possibility) is to appoint a cipher- someone with no strong record one way or another who would privately assure both sides that rulings would go their way. But even if the R’s thought they were getting a manchurian candidate like sleeper agent on the court, I’d bet they still wouldn’t vote in favor for fear of wingnut backlash over giving Obama something.
As has been said before, I think the best strategy is the political one- just find an eminently qualified candidate and let the R’s reject it or sit on it, and then bash them over the head with it. Like it or not, this fight is going into the next term, if not longer…
I think he should pick the person at the top of the remaining list from last time and dare the Senate not to have hearings and confirm them. He has a strong hand – he shouldn’t be afraid to use it.
If the Teabaggers want to refuse to have hearings, Obama can call them back into session when they want to go home to campaign. He can travel to their states and say that they’re being x, y, z in his best most-reasonable way. He can fundraise like mad on the importance of the Supreme Court and the Constitution and his legacy.
Etc.
He shouldn’t do what Tweety apparently advocated – send up a Republican name. :-/
He should let the pressure and excitement build for a few days, and, after Nino’s funeral, should send up the name of the person who he thinks best fits the job. It sounds like that person should be Sri.
Let the Teabaggers scream and yell, but put the ball in their court and make them do something with it. That’s the way to win this, and that’s Obama’s MO in the past. He may not win this round, but he’ll have a much more Team D Senate and HRC or BS will have a much stronger team come January. Obama knows how to play the long game, too.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
No one.
Numerous senators including the Majority Leader have declared that no nominee will even be considered.
Obama coupld nominate the reincarnated unholy hybrid of Ronaldus Maximus, Jeff Davis and Torquemada, and as wet as that would get all the Republicans, there will be no nominee.
After all, Obama is, in their minds, only 3/5ths of a president….
Oh, let’s give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. Since their current form of constitutional Calvinball has them claiming a President cannot expect to have a nominee considered by the Senate in the last year of a term, the evidence might show that they view Obama as 3/4ths of a President.
Since Torquemada was anti waterboarding he would definitely not pass muster.
of a president” (since my ratings never “take” here for some unknown reason).
Encapsulates the wingnut rejectionism/obstructionism very nicely!
The answer is they will confirm no one, because their leadership and prez candidates have, as expected, already intemperately gone out on the proverbial limb and categorically declared “fuggaboutit”. Plus, their base will not allow then to confirm another Obama justice, simply impossible. The coaches of Team Conservative had obviously long ago determined what to do if St Scalia died inopportunely.
Since no one is acceptable, Obama shouldn’t try to compromise with those who have said a thousand times they won’t compromise. Pick some eminent judge that Repubs have unanimously confirmed (assuming anyone respectable is willing to go through all the shit for nothing) and let the Repubs play their game of “NO FUCKING WAY!” Let the Court continue to be the political football it already has become as a result of the “conservative” movement.
But this also means that Dems need to be ready to energetically and persuasively play a counter-game of actually explaining all the judicial monstrosities St Scalia was behind, as well as condemning the 5 member right wing cabal of conservative activists masquerading as justices that Scalia was an integral part of. In other words, stop with the extravagant praise of this crappy human being and worse “justice”, RIP. Let the conservatives bury their own, with gnashing of teeth and rending of American Talibaner garments.
Should Obama even care if Scalia’s seat is filled? This miraculous and unexpected stroke of fate, almost inconceivable, has completely fucked CJ Roberts meticulously laid plans of conservative revolution. He’s lost his majority, and he ain’t getting it back until the Repubs win the 2016 election. So he’s left to twiddle his thumbs with 8-0 income tax cases for the next year. at least.
Scalia’s death is a godsend, especially when one considers that his last act was likely being the 5th vote to enjoin the implementation of the critical Clean Power regulations, which Roberts & Co certainly planned to permanently rule against in the coming months. When one considers that these coal regulations were the basis upon which the Paris Climate Accord was negotiated, it is a shame that lib’rul theologians don’t follow the “conservative” line of thinking that God directly acts against those who have angered him, haha.
Anyway, the critical reality is that Roberts’ Rightwing Train has run seriously off the tracks, and I for one certainly don’t care if ever gets running again….so twiddle those thumbs, CJ Roberts, a shame about that (long planned) agenda.
Yes. If the GOP is going to choose this hill to die on, Obama should make them die on it. I’m reminded of William T. Sherman’s quote: “War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen, and I say let us give them all they want.”
OR president Bernie Sanders who might appoint someone better.
Anyhow as a Minnesota Klobuchar might be an interesting pick.
It all comes down to the base. The Republican base is simply incapable of accepting President Obama appointing a Justice to replace Antonin Scalia, and they call the shots in today’s Republican Party. If it was Ginsburg, all of these ideas might have some small degree of possibility, but not a conservative Justice. Any Republican Senator who voted to confirm Obama’s nominee and any Senators who allowed it to happen would be DOA in the next election. The base might feel so betrayed that they would actually sit out or go third-party this year; however they express it, they would go ballistic to the point that real collateral damage would occur. I think if they somehow allowed someone appointed by this President to replace Scalia, the Republicans might lose everything in November, including the House. ALL of the pressure is to deny Obama appointing the nominee, even if it was Robert Bork.
It shouldn’t be this way, but it is. Theorizing on how Obama could conceivably coax the Republican Senate to do its damn job is just a waste of time. They don’t particularly want to, and all of the incentives are against it. They have tripled down on maximizing base turnout. Having Scalia’s replacement hang over this election helps them with this. Unfortunately, for them, it should galvanize Democrats as well. Everything the President and Congressional Democrats do should be to ensure independent disgust with the Republicans and Democratic excitement to replace Scalia with a new (young) Ginsburg.
wonderfully and persuasively argued, but does it mean Obama should just come out and say, “I take Mitch at his word, so no nomination be be forthcoming. See you at the polls!”
Absolutely not. The President should make a solid nomination and force the Republicans to keep explaining why they can’t be bothered to even consider him/her. The President has a duty to make a nomination; there’s no point in accepting the premise of their intransigence. I just don’t think we need to overthink this.
Obama goes on national TV, says Republicans asked for a consensus candidate, so “I am nominating the judge confirmed 97-0 with Cruz’s vote who worked in the Bush Administration.”
If the senate GOP won’t play, nominate Bill Ayers, just for the fun of watching them set themselves on fire.
This latest may be the stupidest political move by the Republicans. They are guaranteeing that Democrats will come out strong in November.
My reasoning is below, but first my important question:
QUESTION: What does this mean for last week’s suprise climate change action? Did Scalia die too soon to have that written in stone?
STRATEGY:
but don’t take it from me – this WaPo piece really nails it down:
https:/www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/13/if-republicans-block-obamas-supreme-cour
t-nomination-he-wins-anyway?postshare=9301455492909206&tid=ss_tw-bottom
Here’s the answer to my question (from the above-linked amazingly good article):
“The suit against Obama’s environmental initiative, which the Supreme Court just stayed, came from the liberal D.C. Circuit, which had unanimously refused to grant the stay. Now the Obama administration can simply have the Environmental Protection Agency come up with a slightly different new plan and run to the liberal D.C. courts to bless it and refuse to stay it. It’s unlikely the now-divided Supreme Court would come up with a majority to stay the new rules: The vote to stay the old ones was (naturally) 5 to 4.”
That was an amazingly good article, obsessed. I highly recommend reading it in its entirety:
http://wpo.st/RSuB1
Who Would the Republicans Confirm? The RNCers? The leftovers from the Bush II regime?
Bet on it.
AG