So far, Bernie Sanders has done very well, hanging in there with Hillary Clinton, virtually tying her in Iowa and trouncing her in New Hampshire, and while polls have been scarce in Nevada, the latest poll has him about even with her heading into the caucus on Saturday.
That being said, after Nevada, the race heads into the south, and if the polls are to be believed, Sanders is in a world of hurt in which he may not be able to free himself of. PPP did 12 polls in the Super Tuesday states on March 1st, and Hillary leads in 9 of them. Here are the numbers.
Alabama, Clinton 59, Sanders 31
Arkansas, Clinton 57, Sanders 32
Georgia, Clinton 60, Sanders 26
Louisiana, Clinton 60, Sanders 29
Michigan, Clinton 50, Sanders 40
Mississippi, Clinton 60, Sanders 26
Tennessee, Clinton 58, Sanders 32
Texas, Clinton 57, Sanders 34
Virginia, Clinton 56, Sanders 34
The three other races are Oklahoma, where Clinton leads 46-44, Massachusetts where Sanders leads 49-42 and Vermont, Sanders home state where he leads 89-10.
Bernie Sanders has acquitted himself very well, and has done better than a lot of people expected him to, but as the race enters March, and if the polls hold, reality is going to slap him in the face and rather hard.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-leads-12-states-ppp
I think the Clintno campaign can only die by suicide: if, for example, Bernie wins in Nevada, the ensuing freak out by the Clinton campaign might make them say some nasty things, further putting off people that no longer respond to dirty campaigning… but if Clinton hangs in there, and tries to put forth a positive message, she’ll most likely win.
I agree that if Hillary and her campaign talk about what they are going to do to help the country, and keeps the message positive, then it can only help her. Problem is if Bernie wins Nevada, the MEDIA will freak out saying she’s in trouble, thereby forcing a response from Hillary. After Nevada, she definitely has the upper hand.
The Clinton machine has a default tendency to go negative, but it would be wise of them to contain themselves, and resist village-think.