Since we’re at the mercy of polls that we don’t have a whole lot of reason to feel confident about, it’s hard to make any predictions about how the elections are going to go today. Nevertheless, I will offer a few observations.
In Nevada, I have no clue who will win or even if it will wind up being close. It does appear, however, that Sanders has as least narrowed a massive gap there in the last couple of months. It’s pretty high stakes, in my opinion, which I guess is appropriate. If there are any caucus ties, they’ll be settled by drawing cards rather than flipping coins. Sanders needs to win. It doesn’t matter what the delegate count is, as neither candidate can net more than a small handful. But Sanders is the underdog and he has a huge superdelegate disadvantage. He needs to disprove the common wisdom that he can’t compete in racially diverse states. And he appears to be far behind in South Carolina, so he can’t afford to lose the momentum he gained from his blowout win in New Hampshire. A loss in Nevada, no matter how narrow, will be a potentially lethal outcome for his campaign.
No pressure, right?
As for South Carolina, the remarkable thing here is that Donald Trump has done just about everything a prohibitive favorite should not do. He has not played it safe, nor has he in any way simply tried to run out the clock. He’s gone after the Pope, after Apple, after President Bush’s leadership and honesty. I don’t think these things have helped him and I won’t be surprised to see him do worse than the polls are indicating that he’ll do. But he had a yuuuge lead, and I don’t believe he’s done enough to blow it entirely. I still think he’ll win, but perhaps by five points or less. Partly, the size of his victory will depend on how strong the second place candidate finishes. Either way, you’ll know that Trump hurt himself if his numbers come in substantially below thirty percent.
Marco Rubio limped into South Carolina and seemed to recover and build some momentum. He picked up the endorsement of the governor, which certainly should help more than it hurts. He hasn’t finished strong, however. Maybe simple bad luck played a part, but he’s cancelled a couple of events over the closing days, and he’s taken some heat for it. If I’m right that he stalled in the last few days, it may cost him the second place finish he seeks.
Cruz is a bit of a mystery. He’s been getting hit hard from all sides, and I don’t know what to make of his broom closet meeting with Ben Carson. He’s organized the state, though, and his ground game is probably the strongest. The polls are split, with some (probably most) showing him slightly ahead of Rubio, and some showing him slightly behind. If I had to bet money, I’d place it on Cruz coming in second. But it’s just hard to say.
Bush is running on fumes, with rumors swirling that he’ll end his campaign if he doesn’t do well today. He really pushed for the governor’s endorsement, even bringing in his brother to try to seal the deal. It didn’t happen. Nonetheless, most polls show him in fourth place ahead of Kasich. He’ll need that to hold up or he might really drop out.
Kasich has a brand all his own, and he’s been rising in the polls slowly. It’s true that positive campaigning is not known for being effective in South Carolina, but his campaign has told anyone who will listen that he’s only in the Palmetto State to poach votes from Bush and to try to knock him out. He may accomplish that even with a fifth place finish. A strong fourth place finish is more likely to get that job done.
Carson is in last place in every poll I can find. I guess his job is to not finish in last place. I don’t see what that gets him, but it will beat expectations and result in humiliation for either Bush or Kasich.
There are so many story lines today that it’s going to be very interesting. I’ve already mentioned all of these, but here’s what to look for in order of importance.
1. Who wins Nevada?
2. Does Cruz or Rubio come in second place in South Carolina?
3. Assuming he wins, does Trump get more than a third of the vote or more like a quarter of it?
4. Does Bush do better than Kasich or not, and does he exceed expectations?
5. Does Kasich knock Bush out?
6. Does Carson call it quits?
Saddle up.