Bernie Sanders had a big thumping win in the Maine caucuses yesterday, following two big thumping wins in the prairie state caucuses of Kansas and Nebraska on Saturday. In doing this, he’s exposing a weakness that Clinton demonstrated in 2008, and that the best strategists in the game seem powerless to fix. She doesn’t do well among the most committed white Democrats–the kind of folks who turn out for caucuses in states like Iowa (where she managed a tie), Minnesota, and Colorado.
It is very fortunate for her that she’s managed to largely transfer the black vote from Barack Obama. Without her dominance with the black vote, she wouldn’t have rolled up such a big delegate lead in the South and she’d be in real trouble in the industrial Midwest.
I see Sanders get a lot of disrespect for his inability to do better with black voters, and if you want him to be the nominee I can certainly see why this is disappointing. But, sometimes you should stop for a moment and consider what he has been able to accomplish. I thought he might win in Iowa and I thought he would win in New Hampshire, but I didn’t see him going 8-10-1 in the first nineteen contests, and I doubt you did either.
If you are a believer in people-powered politics (or even if you aren’t), you simply have to marvel at Sanders’s ability to raise money without relying on corporate donations or super PACs. He’s raising so much money from ordinary citizens (five million individual donations at this point) that he can’t possibly figure out how to spend it all. And, unlike Clinton, he barely has to lift a finger to accomplish this:
Sanders outraised Clinton again in February for the second month in a row, bringing in $42.7 million to her $30 million. On the last day of the month alone, he brought in $6 million online as the campaign used social media to egg on his backers to give, give and give again.
Clinton, meanwhile, has recently taken two valuable days off the campaign trail to raise money in California for use against Sanders now. In a one-week stretch later this month, she is scheduled to make seven fundraising stops in six states — Georgia, Tennessee, Connecticut, Virginia, Washington and California.
Never mind that he’s hitting Clinton hard on her six-figure Wall Street speeches, the more lasting contribution is the proof of concept that a candidate can raise all the money they need to run a well-funded presidential campaign without going on bended knee to the richest people in this country. If every other consideration were equal, Bernie’s way of funding his campaign would be a decisive mark in his favor.
I think Conrad Black is the worst sort of scoundrel, and I don’t agree with his prediction that Donald Trump will win the presidency. But I do think he fairly concisely expresses why the country is fed up with the status quo:
Donald Trump polled extensively last year and confirmed his suspicion that between 30 and 40 per cent of American adults, cutting across all ethnic, geographic, and demographic lines, were angry, fearful and ashamed at the ineptitude of their federal government.
Americans, Trump rightly concluded, could not abide a continuation in office of those in both parties who had given them decades of shabby and incompetent government: stagnant family incomes, the worst recession in 80 years, stupid wars that cost scores of thousands of casualties and trillions of dollars and generated a humanitarian disaster, serial foreign policy humiliations, and particularly the absence of a border to prevent the entry of unlimited numbers of unskilled migrants, and trade deals that seemed only to import unemployment with often defective goods…
…International Communism and the Soviet Union disintegrated and America was alone, at the summit of the world.
And then it turned into a nation of idiots, incapable of doing anything except conduct military operations against primitive countries.
The Right Honourable Lord Black of Crossharbour shows his snobbish elitism in referring to “primitive countries,” and he might have added that we’ve proven incapable of doing very well even in this supposedly easy task. I don’t like how he presents his case, as it ignore’s Nancy’s admonition not to see both sides as equally at fault for the less than stellar results we’ve been getting from the federal government.
Having said all that, the heart of his point rings true and helps explain why both Trump and Sanders are getting so much more traction than anyone expected.
When kids conclude that college is an irrational investment–in many cases little more than an invitation to enter young adulthood in debt peonage–and cannot make enough money to make it sensible to own a car or move out of their parents’ home, then the system is broken and the authors of the system are accountable.
Bernie Sanders may not have all the tools a successful presidential candidate needs or the short-term politically realistic solutions that would force us to take him completely seriously, but he’s identified the problems and it’s resonating with young people.
He won’t get to the Promised Land, but he’s provided the outlines of a roadmap to get there. If the alternative is Donald Trump, that’s not a fork in the road we want to take.
So, we can nitpick Sanders as a candidate, mock him for his shortcomings, tell him how impractical he is. But we ought to appreciate what he’s trying to do and what he has already done.
First, how many politicians have his credibility? Not very damn many. So online fund raising at that level is gonna be a rare bird.
Second, the DNC’s design of primaries that advantage the conservadem South in picking our presidential candidates has a yuuuuuge Achilles heel–AA voters do not come out in midterms (60% drop off) Now, if I were a paranoid, I’d say that might be a feature for some, not a fault. But if we want to get rid of neoliberalism, we have to face the advantage it has built into the system for itself.
From what I understand Bernie Sanders is damn near the only politician left in America that has net positive favorables.
My husband is a big fan of Bernie and he’s been sending small donations to support his campaign. Both my husband and I completed one of those online “whom do you align with” polls and we both scored in the nineties with Bernie, so we’re going to support him as long as he’s in the running.
Both Sanders and Clinton has flaws as well as good points, and we’ll pick a Democrat for President, whomever survives the primaries. There can not be a Republican president, period. That can’t be allowed to happen.
One thing you didnt quite touch on was the overwhelming support among people under 30 Sanders has. Whatever happens activating these people longterm (and he is certainly activating more than would be the case if he were absent) means that the middle of the party is going to get much much more left wing in the next 15 years. And thats a victory in itself.
Unless the Dem elites spend all their effort fighting it of course.
And of course they will fight it and they will win, because there is more bribe money to be made as an accommodating minority party than as a majority party serving the people. Salary is nothing besides the speaking fees, insider stock tips, “foundation” grants, and “consultant” fees after leaving office.
Just based on feminine intuition, something tells me “they” will not win. The Gilded Age came to an end and so did the Republican Roaring 20’s. Don’t forget, we saw a very conservative Pope resign early 2013. To me, the groundswell of little people energized by the Obama campaign of 2008 and the Pope’s resignation are harbingers of things to come. Until Bernie Sanders entered the race, I never thought I would have an opportunity to vote for an FDR Democrat. Even Trump’s popularity is a rejection of politics, as usual.
Prophets rarely reach the promised land.
sadly, true
I find it both interesting and ironic that the M$M focuses so much attention on how Clinton is winning the AA vote, and this is this huge thing. Like the M$M could care about AAs otherwise (the irony), except when it inures to the benefit of Wall Street & the Banks candidate.
Then AAs are trotted out to show how Sanders is fatally flawed in comparison to Hillary.
Well the AA vote IS important, and it’s worth highlighting (except in the devious ways of rightwing media, which is all of it). However, with all due respect to southern AA citizens, they’re not the only voters out there who matter, whether to the D or R party candidates.
And that’s why this meme is so deceptive, in addition to how the primaries have been scheduled to favor Southern D votes.
I don’t see Sanders as some perfect candidate, and I have my own concerns about him. But given the options, he’s clearly attempting to champion the people over the corporations. The chatter about how Sanders “can’t get anything done but Hillary can” is disingenuous and misleading, at best, deliberately deceptive at worst.
Whether HRC or Sanders wins Pres (should one or the other make it), either one will face an incredible amount of obstructionism and push back from both Ds and esp from Rs in congress. The notion that somehow HRC will “get more done” in working with Congress is simply specious. Should she win, it will be the same treatment as Obama got … only on steroids. The Rs in the House are almost certainly going to go for Impeachment immediately.
From where I sit, I feel that Sanders would actually get less push back and more possibility of cooperation (not a lot more, just a little more) than Clinton. JMHO, of course, but I don’t believe the spin of the current meme that Clinton can be more “successful” should she get in office. I don’t buy it.
It kinda depends on what one would choose to see as “successful,” too. Education, trade, and foreign policy are three areas of wide disagreement between our factions.
Her schtick will be foreign policy and that will bring her total cooperation from the Republicans because more war will be made inevitable. The rest doesn’t interest her, no it doesn’t, a Goldwater Girl knows where her talents lie. She’s not interested in Sanders’ voters and will concentrate on drawing centrist Republicans (whoever they may be). No matter what, she’ll definitely tack strongly to the right if she’s nominated.
I disagree. There are many reasons I would prefer that we not have Trump sullying our national discource in the general election campaign, but a positive he would bring is that it would force Hillary to the left on many economic and foreign policy/military issues.
Trump will also tack further right en the general election campaign. He’s only gold digging for the time being. The war party and he will make up and kiss.
And she is absolutely pursuing Sanders voters, and will continue to do so. She will need them.
Maybe I’m wrong. Or maybe you are.
I thought that the only reason Bernie was struggling with the black community was because he was a virtual unknown running against someone with almost 100% name recognition, something Loan Shark Debbie did everything in her power to maintain. Even with that, looking at the record of the two candidates it seemed to me that once they learned just who Bernie was it would be game over.
The Clintons (both of them) have done more damage to the black community than the Republicans could ever have done on their own with things like mass incarnation, cutting the safety net for millions to “end welfare as we know it” and repeated dog whistles to attract white voters. The worst part, all this was done for political gain. How could African Americans ever support these people in such large numbers when everything is laid out on the table?
What I failed to recognize was the reaction of the black community to brutal systematic oppression. That oppression continues to this day at the hand of the white man’s party, the Republicans. Now that the Republicans look more and more like neo-Nazis this looks even worse. This has set them up to respond to the politics of fear, a Hillary specialty.
They know very well the policies Bernie advocates would do more for the black community than any of the incremental half measures offered by Hillary. It’s simple; they bought into the politics of fear, the idea that Hillary is the best shield against the white man’s party.
The states where Hillary did well with this tactic are very conservative states that will never vote democratic anyway. One can hardly expect one to be very progressive when surrounded by conservatives confronted daily with racist Republican elected officials. Rebellion is risky; better stick with devil one knows, in this case Hillary.
http://blackagendareport.com/bogus_power_of_black_vote
Going forward this may appear to be an insurmountable obstacle that could turn things toward the Establishment. A closer look reveals that Hillary may be running out of states where this will work.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on-march-15-sanders-will-
erode-it-after-that.html
The most encouraging sign for me is that, away from this above situation, the Bernie wins are by such unpredicted wide margins. I think he could well win a majority of the pledged delegates putting Hilary’s DNC in a real bind.
Am very curious to see how minorities break out of the South. So far, that exit poling has been promising, but scant.
“The Clinton years were also known for a booming economy. During that time, the median household income in African-American households grew by 25 percent, twice as fast as it did for all households nationwide. In addition, African-American unemployment plummeted from 14.1 percent to 8.2 percent (of course, the unemployment rate also fell for other groups). And the administration touted its record of boosting loans to minorities.”
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/01/468185698/understanding-the-clintons-popularity-with-black-voters
Far more blacks experienced the benefits of the booming economy under Clinton than experienced the problems with welfare reform and the 1994 crime bill.
The myopia I see from the Sanders campaign is to assume that the majority of black people are poor. While the black community has a higher poverty rate than any other demographic (27%) that still leaves over 70% who aren’t poor and who experienced prosperity under the Clinton presidency.
Except Clinton has nothing to do with the ’90s boom economy (Stiglitz has written a whole book about how Clinton retarded it). The factors were cheap oil, the fashion for SUVs (along with the easy credit to purchase those high profit margin vehicles) that brought Detroit back, the tech sector finally kicking into the broader economy, and a huge pent-up demand for goods that had been deferred during the Reagan/Bush years that could be satisfied with easier to obtain and slightly less costly debt. A decade (1996-2005) of irrational exuberance and the piper came calling after that.
credit when the economy is booming and get blamed when there is a bust. This is true across all demographics which is why Clinton left office with one of the highest approval ratings ever for a sitting president. Even today, outside of the progressive blogosphere and rabid Republicans he has an extremely high approval rating.
I would also say that while Clinton is not the reason the economy was booming, he was also political savvy enough to ride the wave. He also used it to raise taxes on the wealthy
In other words Most people who were around during the Clinton years remember it as a time of relative peace and prosperity. Like the Eisenhower years but this time people of color were included. Claiming all day long and twice on Sunday that he really doesn’t deserve that credit won’t change the fact that he gets it.
An approval rating so high that half the electorate wanted a change.
btw — the 1993 tax increase wasn’t limited to the wealthy, but the ’97 capital gains tax cut almost exclusively benefited the wealthy. So, overall they got back more than whatever extra they had to pay for a few years.
What people believe, doesn’t make it so. If we omit the Cold War (and excise its expression in the McCarthy period witch hunts) and all the US covert wars, the ’53-’60 period were experienced as relatively peaceful for Americans, but prosperity came in the ’60s. The highest ever minimum wage was in 1968. Adjusted for inflation (2012 dollars), it was $10.34 in 1968 compared to the peak under Clinton when it was $7.39. Better than under Bush 1, but not by much.
office. As far as what people believing doesn’t make it so. You can throw all the facts and figures you want at the electorate but that doesn’t change that people felt times were good during the Clinton administration.
Beyond that facts support that the Clinton administration was good for the majority of PoC, blacks especially. As I posted above black incomes rose by 25% (faster than they rose in any other demographic) and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point ever.
You win! Can’t argue/debate beliefs. Have to give props to Trump because he’s the only one in this election cycle that’s been able to cut through to white evangelicals to reject their god in favor of their racism.
Not that I give much weight to the tracking of a president’s approval ratings. If I did, I sure wouldn’t have confidently predicted that Obama would win a second term. The rise and fall for some strange reasons. 9/11 gave GWB an 89% approval rating. And most presidents get a bump in the last month or so of his term.
I equate Presidents getting a bump at the end of their tenure to the clapping and smiles on display as the stock market closes, as the entire world didn’t go up in flames at the close of the day.
Then there is GWB’s last helicopter ride over the capital.
A sigh of relief.
Worse = Nixon’s. He didn’t get a polling bump at that end of his term. Then again there were only a few hours between his resignation and vacating the WH and most presidents get over two months to get that last bump (some of that may be relief that he’s on his way out).
Hmm, interesting. A sort of blind squirrel anomaly. Check out page 5 & 6. http://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc222.pdf
To be president during a time when the cold war was winding down and before 9/11 or that he was one lucky dude to be president during the time when the nascent internet was driving growth in a new information economy.
Let me be clear – Clinton was probably the luckiest president ever when it came to his timing of being in office.
Still it is the nature of politics that Presidents get the credit for the good times and get blamed for the bad times. There will be no changing most people’s mind on that especially when you come at them with the assumption that of welfare reform affected them more than a 25% increase in black incomes and a halving of the black unemployment rate.
This is an excellent point. African-Americans are a much more diverse group than they were in the 1990s in part because of this economic escalator. But in the 2000s, African-Americans were also the first to feel the reversal and the flim-flam of the promise of home ownership from the fraudulent sub-prime lenders.
Which is why the term “urban ghetto” seems so quaint even if the enforced poverty and segregation that it points to still exists for too many people. The African-American kids who run into trouble with law enforcement are much more likely to be latchkey kids of parents who are working multiple jobs and living in a suburb like Ferguson MO than children of chronically unemployed residents of some perpetual inner city low-rent area. All of those fifty years of seeking to eliminate poverty have had some marginal effects that have not been completely unwound.
I’m not sure that any politicians in Washington have seen the actual America in twenty to thirty years. It is beyond any of the television ad stereotypes.
National campaigns give Presidential candidates the chance to see if they are open to other than stereotypes fed by their staffs. Do the candidates grasp how one place they speak in differs from another? Do they at all? Or has it become a mechanical routine aimed at one-way communication and persuasion?
A little OT, but not as much as you might think.
Anyone who thinks we’re not doing anything except “conduct military operations against primitive countries” needs to read Destiny Disrupted by Tamim Ansary.
Something about sleeping giants and butterfly wings…
Then:
Now: (and it has been on-going since last summer)
“Black people won’t vote for Sanders.” (Easy enough claim to make when Hillary has had a lock on the AA institutional/elite that does drive the votes of this DEM faction.
The truth about the ’08 primary Hillary lost the white vote in IA, barely won it in NH and NV, and lost it in SC where Obama received almost three times the number of white votes that Hillary did. And she would have continued to lose it if her campaign hadn’t tripled down on the race card. Where it can be measured, she’s doing even worse among white voters than she did in ’08. Her support among that demographic is limited to the “always vote” older voter.
Imagine what this race would look like now if Sanders’ had received merely 50% of the favorable TV and print coverage that HRC has enjoyed, merely since the beginning of this election. A mere 20% of the institutional and SD endorsements.
Bernie started with virtually nothing to go up against the most formidable (in terms of name recognition, money, and institutional/elite unity) ever seen in a DEM POTUS primary. All that in her favor and so far it’s barely enough. If Bernie were merely ten years younger, we’d be seeing a lot less Sanders won’t get to the Promised Land.
His campaign is indeed remarkable, and I would guess that its success was not predicted by the man himself – or else he would have been better prepared in Nevada and South Carolina. He might also have at least attempted to win more superdelegate endorsements.
I do think Sanders is benefiting from the lack of other Democrats in the race, aside from the hapless Martin O’Malley. I confess to a little resentment that the Clintons managed to scare off everyone else from running, so I’m amused that the result was to collect all the left-of-Clinton sentiment under a single banner.
He might also have at least attempted to win more superdelegate endorsements.
This is the sort of criticism that betrays a shortfall in knowing and understanding the power bases within the DEM party. Superdelegates are by and large creatures (creations?) of the DEM party which currently would be more correct to describe as the ClintonDEM party. Only those that owe practically nothing to the party for their political careers can risk not endorsing the party candidate of choice when there is one and objections to that choice are very low.
Of course. I didn’t say he would succeed, only that as far as I can tell he didn’t even try. It would only matter if he thought he had a chance to win and then need to bring the party together – and I doubt that he thought that.
What I know is that Bernie has worked with and is respected by a wide range members of Congress. I don’t know what he did or didn’t do or thought or didn’t think in seeking endorsements. He has received a few. And a few others are remaining neutral which this time is a more courageous than usual position. (Does anyone seriously think that the pressure on Elizabeth Warren to endorse HRC hasn’t been enormous?) I respect Bernie’s experience, expertise, etc. enough that he knew exactly what doors would have been a waste of time to knock on. And a few that could be expected to at least open and listen were locked so fast it even shocked me. It has really separated the progressive wimps from those that are tough as nails.
Elizabeth Warren is a rare bird indeed. She has a lifetime of intellectual and public achievement crowned with a safe Senate seat that was actually a second choice in her career. She’s strikes me as being as little open to intimidation or political bribery as anyone in public life. Good for her.
Patronage is Powerful.
When the SuperDels made their choices, Sanders was still in the low single digits everywhere.
Most were clearly going to go for Clinton because not doing so would see them shut out when it came time for rewards.
The Super Delegates were invented by the DNC because of George McGovern and Jimmy Carter. George McGovern was too liberal and Jimmy Carter was too conservative for the Establishment of those days. More importantly, both of those candidates won their nomination without a majority of pledged delegates in multiple candidate races. The Establishment wanted a safety valve in case that happened again. I believe that was done with good intentions.
Now we have a two-way race where the Super Delegates could overturn the majority of pledged delegates. Doing so would be so dangerous as to risk handing the general election to the Republicans. I agree with those who say the DNC and Democratic elected officials are just plain not that stupid. If they did overturn the majority of Democrats (no matter how small that majority) they would have proved the Democratic Party is too corrupt (rigged) to allow itself to be reformed, a scathing indictment indeed. A severely angry split Democratic base aside, I can just hear Trump say; even a majority of Democrats don’t want Hillary.
Hillary’s nomination is simply not worth destroying the Democratic Party over. Super Delegates are irrelevant in this race.
I’ve been wondering all along why you’ve been so grudging of Sanders, Booman. It’s good to see you dwell on him in a positive way every now and then. I get it that you’re a realist, but he has already impacted our sense of what constitutes reality in 2016.
One of his primary virtues is that he knows what he believes and isn’t afraid to say it out loud (and repeat it). Obama had this going for him in 2008, although perhaps to a lesser extent because of his law professor roots and overly careful crafting of language. Hillary is tied up in knots 80% of the time trying to bend something she’s done in the past to her current position. For example, last night she tried to explain how being a cheerleader for the TPP led her to now oppose it, she answered the question about fracking with a complicated set of conditions (Sanders simply said, “No, I oppose it”, and explained in detail why when he was pressed). It is just so much harder to equivocate or flat out lie than it is to simply state what you believe to be the just and right thing. Sanders’ phenomenal fund-raising is an illustration of this: he proudly and unequivocally refuses to take corporate money, and he’s being rewarded for it.
I think what you’re working towards, Booman, is to eventually acknowledge just how vitally important Bernie’s candidacy is and will prove to be for Democrats in the future. He began by nudging Hillary to the left, and as he keeps up the pressure he is now shoving her off of her focus group tested chosen spots. By the time she’s the nominee, if that’s what happens, she will be wedded to positions that are quite a bit more progressive than they otherwise would have been.
One of the saddest things on the Democratic side, to me, is what Hillary’s joyless candidacies do to those who gather around her. She has legions of operatives from campaigns past who aggressively represent her, and to hear decent people like Howard Dean, Bill DiBlasio, Karen Finney and a hero like John Lewis, as examples, take to the airwaves and get tongue-tied trying to demonize Sanders and his supporters while lamely trying to defend some of Clinton’s indefensible positions, is pathetic.
Since I prefer to be an optimist, I try to make myself think that the much too lawyerly Hillary, while not a natural as a candidate for office, will somehow seize the moment presented to her and, as a leader, move the country in a better direction.
to hear decent people like Howard Dean, Bill DiBlasio, Karen Finney and a hero like John Lewis, as examples, take to the airwaves and get tongue-tied trying to demonize Sanders and his supporters while lamely trying to defend some of Clinton’s indefensible positions, is pathetic.
People like this will never again be what they once were (assuming that they once were what purported to be). More than pathetic, it’s very sad.
Have to disagree with your optimism because it’s known who HRC owes her primary allegiance to and the totality of her public record is in alignment (or close enough alignment) with her core beliefs, orientation, and worldview that at her age she’s not going to junk that for another.
Karen Weaver, the Mayor of Flint, Michigan, and Chelsea Clinton have announced the Flint WaterWorks Initiative, supported with $500,000 from the Pritzker family, one of the wealthiest in the US, giving work to unemployed youths distributing water and information about healthy living, etc.
Ms. Clinton tells us, “For my mother and for me, this is not political. It is deeply personal and I think it should be personal to every American. … (We want) to see the children of Flint as our children and to see the youth in Flint, as the mayor says, as being a promising youth for Flint and really our country.”
Well, no it’s not political, you just have to cringe at the ‘deeply personal’ bit with their shattering millions. Anyway coincidentally the Michigan primary is tomorrow. So what the fuck, Clinton will just throw this charity stint into the mix. This is why I have no respect for the Clintons: their shamelessness is disgusting.
Can anyone explain to me what the mystical bond is between black women and the Democratic Party, in particular the Clintons. If anything, Bill Clinton threw them under a bus? My own explanation is a bit racist so maybe I should’t burden you with it, but I will: the Clintons are pure white!
Above I forgot to include the link to the Detroit Free Press; I was too pissed:
http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/03/06/chelsea-clinton-flint-m
ayor-announce-new-jobs-program/81403878/
Bread and circuses.
You do know that Penny was a negotiator for this upcoming series of trade agreements, no? This is a very small interest payment she can well afford if Hillary gets those things passed.
I guess I missed that: Penny?
Penny Pritzker
Also a huge early backer of Barack Obama who has enormous support in the affected community.
Would be nice if her class had been willing to pay taxes and buy municipal bonds to replace antique water system before this could happen. Instead of running for the suburbs.
Instead, this “gesture” is applauded. A day late, imo.
A day late and a billion dollars short. Maybe someday those that have been harmed will throw the pittances bestowed on them back into the faces of that have colluded in the harm.
She’s my boss…
AAs are generally more loyal and forgiving than white folks. Personal qualities that are generally admirable, but for AAs it’s long been more than that. Often a matter of survival. It’s very difficult for white liberals to fully appreciate the totality of the history and lived experience of AAs. Thus, we view videos of an AA stopped by a cop and don’t understand why they wouldn’t simply comply with what the cop tells them to do because we haven’t had the lived experience where complying potentially results in a more dangerous outcome.
Older AAs trust the Clintons because they know what they get from them and it’s miles less horrible than what Republicans do. They don’t know Sanders and therefore, not only have they no reason to trust him, but they hear “unicorns and rainbows” that they believe isn’t “electable” which would leave them with a GOP devil.
I found this outrageous