Nate Silver has a pretty good piece up that explains why Donald Trump still has some series obstacles to hurdle if he wants to be the Republicans’ nominee. Almost everything he has to say could also be said about Bernie Sanders.
The two parties have different systems for awarding delegates, but most of these differences are fairly trivial. Both Trump and Sanders will probably need to rely on uncommitted delegates, most of which will be disinclined to support them.
In Trump’s case, his increasingly erratic behavior could be the biggest problem, but his lack of conservative orthodoxy and his inferior organization are also speed bumps, and these latter problems are ones he shares with Sanders to one degree or another.
Silver says that Trump is probably screwed if he can’t win on the first ballot, and I’m inclined to agree. I’d also say that Sanders is screwed if he needs to rely on superdelegates, which he will absolutely need to do. In a really best case scenario for Sanders where he pretty much runs the table of the remaining primaries and caucuses, he might manage to win the most pledged delegates, but he cannot win an outright majority of all the delegates. That’s why he and his campaign are talking about swaying superdelegates who have already committed to Clinton to change their minds.
I think this is a hopeless strategy, and mostly for the same reasons that Trump can’t hope to win on a second ballot.
The Sanders camp has adopted an adversarial posture toward the DNC and isn’t raising money for the party or many of the party’s officeholders. Clinton, meanwhile, is raising millions for both. Basic self-interest suggests that most superdelegates will prefer the candidate who is a team player and who brings in much needed money that will be used for organizing and advertising.
I don’t think Sanders has aroused the same kind of antipathy as Trump, but he isn’t doing the things he should do considering that his only path to success is to win over the party establishment.
I understand that it’s a difficult trick to run as an outsider and not alienate the insiders, but that’s the exact challenge facing Sanders and he does not seem to have figured this out.
He should realize that his mission is to take control of the DNC, not win in spite of it.
