Here in Pennsylvania, you cannot participate in the primaries unless you are registered as either a Democrat or Republican, and this provides an incentive for people to ‘join’ a party even if they’d really rather not. In recent years, the percentage of independents on the voting rolls has been climbing. Naturally, with a contested primary in both parties approaching on April 26th, party switching is currently high. In fact, it’s at an historic high, with about half of switchers joining up for the GOP, a third changing to get a chance to choose between Clinton and Sanders, and a third dropping a major party to become unaffiliated or signing up with a minor party.
So, in the short term, the movement is away from being independent, but that’s an artificial and temporary boost that simply wouldn’t happen if this state held open primaries. People are joining the two major parties just so they can have a say in who will be our next president. The longer term trend has been against party affiliation, and this will almost definitely be the trend going forward, once these primaries have concluded.
“What you’re seeing in those (suburban Philadelphia) counties is very much in line with what you’re seeing nationally,” said Chris Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion. “Polls show voters are more likely than at any time in modern history to not want to affiliate themselves with either of the two major political parties.”
Now, you might be interested in Pennsylvania’s primary system because you want to know how it might advantage or disadvantage the candidates. For example, it hurts Bernie Sanders that the deadline for changing parties has passed because he does very well with independents and, if they haven’t already registered as Democrats, they can’t vote for him. I’ve met several young adults who are in this situation, and they’re not happy about it. They’re ‘Feeling the Bern,’ but they’re also lost votes.
This is not why I am bringing up this topic, however. I want to talk about a different disconnect between the system as it exists and the people’s expectations for how things ought to be in a sensible and fair world.
What people don’t really get is the idea of delegating their decision-making to someone else. But that’s what Pennsylvania voters really do, to a very large degree:
The arcane rules governing the [Republican] nominating process mean that in Pennsylvania, a populous state that all three remaining candidates are targeting, the winner will automatically receive only 14 of the state’s 71 total delegates. The other delegates — 54 of whom are elected on the primary ballot in congressional districts, plus three RNC members — will be unbound.
“Even if you stood up and said, ‘I’m for Governor John Kasich’ and your district duly elected you based on your word, you can go to the convention and say, ‘Nope, I changed my mind,’ ” [Ed] Brookover [a senior adviser to Trump] said.
Phil English, a past delegate from Pennsylvania and a former congressman, is among the 162 Republicans running to become delegates. He said he considers himself “a free agent” and is open to nominating someone not currently campaigning, such as House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.).
“I intend to listen to people in my community, look at how they vote in the beauty contest, and then make my own assessment of what would be the strongest ticket for the Republican Party,” English said.
Is there really anything wrong with this?
I am sure it strikes most people as grossly unfair, if not outright corrupt. How could their vote not be binding? What’s the point of even voting?
And, in a country where people are increasingly disassociating themselves from party politics, it seems less sensible and just than ever for party insiders to have this kind of control and power over who will stand for the presidency.
But delegates are really just like our elected representatives in Congress. Our senators and congressmen are elected by us, but we don’t control their votes once they get to Washington DC. They might promise to vote against a free trade agreement and then be persuaded to support it once they have the opportunity to sit in hearings, question witnesses, introduce and pass amendments that satisfy their concerns, or just get corrupted by big money and lobbyists. We vote for people to represent us, and if we don’t like how we’re represented, we get to vote against them when they stand for reelection. That’s our system.
Delegates to the party conventions are also our representatives, and in states like Pennsylvania, we elect them directly. They may be pledged to vote for Trump or they may not be pledged to anyone. When they get to the convention, some of them will be designated by the whole state delegation to serve on committees where they will craft the platform and set forth the rules that will govern the nomination. We’re electing these people to do these jobs for us, and there’s nothing wrong with that. At least in theory, the only people voting for these delegates will be members of either the Republican or the Democratic Party, and they have a right to expect that members of their party will craft the platform, not independents who have no commitment or skin in the game.
This is the way the system works, but it’s not how people think the system works, nor is it how they think it ought to work. But maybe it’s precisely how it ought to work.
If people realized that they’re really electing members of their community to represent their interests at a party convention, then maybe there would be some vetting of the delegates and some real competition and debate about who will be sent to serve. If people realized that you ought to belong to a party if you hope to have a say in who that party nominates, maybe they would get involved in local politics rather than treating our elections as a spectator sport.
What irks people, I think, is how the two-party system limits our choices. Nobody really complains when Green Party members pick their nominee without their say, but it makes them angry to think that the Democratic or Republican Party might do the exact same thing. Of course, in a lot of states, the parties let non-members vote, which muddies the waters and delegitimizes the idea that these are political parties at all.
Finally, think about how these contests are covered by the media. They don’t explain the system very well at all, although I think they’re getting a little better with each new presidential cycle. Think about what it means that Trump can win every delegate in Florida by getting one more vote than the guy in second place, but can get fewer delegates than Cruz in Louisiana despite getting more votes. Why did they split votes proprotionately in one state, give a big bonus for winning in another, make another winner-take-all, and have another bind only 14 of the 71 available delegates? There absolutely no sense of one-person one-vote in that. But people think their vote should be treated that way.
What people ought to think is that their decision is less about which candidate they support than which member of their community they trust to represent them at the convention. What they ought to be taught by the media is how they can influence who will be their representative at the convention. Is their time best spent knocking doors, casting a vote on primary or caucus day, or in showing up at their county convention to cast a vote there?
Ideally, we’d have a system where numerous parties could field viable and well-funded candidates, and only party members would have a say in who runs on their party’s ticket. That will never be the case, though, because of our first-past-the-post plurality-wins system. Instead, what we have is a system that is more of a trial by fire than a democratic process.
And within the system we have, which can be tweaked but not fundamentally changed, wouldn’t it be better if people understood its mechanisms and didn’t have false expectations about how it works or how it should work?
In a general election, the principle of one-person one-vote is vitally important, but that principle doesn’t apply to parties picking their nominees, nor should it. If you want to be an independent, you really shouldn’t complain about what some party you don’t even belong to wants to do. If you want to have a real say, you should do the things that will give you some say, not just sit around bitching that people win nominations in a way that displeases you.
It’s not corrupt that committed party members tend to be the people who run to be delegates, nor that committed party members have a preference for candidates who support their party, work to make it stronger, and generally share its priorities and goals.
If you want a revolution, you have to do it on the ground within the party system, and you have to know how it works.
But don’t feel too badly, even Donald Trump is just figuring out that you don’t win a nomination just by getting the most votes.
While I appreciate the analysis and overview of the primary/delegate system I do have to point out that even if one accepts what you are saying, it can still be seen as corrupt.
As far as I know there are no Constitutional rules on how party primaries conduct their voting. Why then do we have a system that pushes the boundaries of democracy in a negative fashion (in that each vote counts very little) in an area were it could be the most inclusive and a vote has full power?
This is the ultimate failure of political parties, of party leaders being able to put a finger on the scales during the initial selection process. This turns the actual election into a farce: the general voting public then gets to vote for the proxies of each party’s leadership. Never mind that the actual voters might have preferred someone else.
The current system, legal or not, is corrupt by its very nature.
The framers of the Constitution did grapple with the idea of political parties. Preferred none at all. But banning them seemed to undemocratic; so, they punted and hoped that they wouldn’t develop into much more than an minor annoyance.
While it may have taken a while to get to this sad state of affairs, it appears their hopes were in vain.
Hope is for suckers
It devolved into a sad state of affairs very quickly. Took sixty years for the Whigs to reconstruct themselves and then seventy for DEMs to finally begin to do the same. Took the GOP only fifty years to respond effectively to the DEM realignment. DEMs responded to that by trashing their own and becoming quasi-Republicans.
The Second Continental Congress’s attitude towards political organization is one of the biggest intellectual failures of the Founders and why I don’t really care much for their historical lionization.
Even from a purely utopian standpoint, the ‘political parties are bad’ standpoint was suboptimal and immature. Political parties are good. They’re a generic good for the same reason majoritarian governments, despite their many flaws, are a generic good.
It’s about false expectations and limited choices, but it’s mainly about people thinking they can have a big influence on politics without doing anything but voting once in a while.
Let’s say that I got together with some like-minded people and started an organization dedicated to getting free college tuition, closing Gitmo, and passing a constitutional amendment to explicitly ban Cheneyesque torture.
And let’s say that we had organizational meetings, elected a treasurer, a president, etc., and then started building chapters nationwide. And then say that we launched a slate of candidates for office.
Now, suddenly, we’re supposed to let everyone else who isn’t a member of our party and hasn’t given dues and hasn’t attended our meetings and hasn’t committed to our platform…we’re supposed to let those people vote for who our nominee for president will be?
Why?
But suppose we decide it will help membership to allow people some say in who our officers will be at the nominating convention. Isn’t it reasonable to demand that anyone standing for that kind of election should be a party member? Should we not be able to have those who are elected in that process free to go to the convention and vote their conscience once they get there?
This is how a political party ought to work.
Why should outsiders tell us how to do our business?
Why would we let someone come in and hijack our party and take over our nomination and shit all over our belief system?
The ONLY reason that makes sense at all is because people who don’t belong to the Democratic or Republican Party, or who do nothing to support them, feel some kind of ownership over them.
And that’s because they’re only going to get two real choices, and they want a say over who those choices will be.
Fine.
Then get involved if that’s what you want.
Otherwise, it’s like ignoring the whole baseball season and then getting pissed off about who’s in the World Series.
It’s even worse, actually, because unlike with baseball, the citizen had the opportunity to play in the games and chose not to.
BooMan you are creating a very elaborate stawman I’m afraid.
What you are describing is a union. To be fair, your second and third sentences are fine; you run into to trouble with the dues, attendance, etc. in the third sentence. In it you come off as an elitist: “outsiders” have not passed arbitrary criteria that is in place so they don’t get to participate.
This elitism is again reflected in the “allow people some say” concept. And no it isn’t reasonable to make demands like this: look at how easily elected officials claim to be of one party and then change to the other. This undermines the whole importance of “being of the party”. The final nail in the coffin of this paragraph is the “vote their conscience” concept as it applies to conventions. This is not the floor of Congress, it is a political convention. This is the best opportunity to reflect the will of the members of the party. And human nature being what it is, I’m more likely to believe people will vote their financial interests and not those of “conscience”.
No it isn’t how a political party should work. You describe something that is exclusionary, not inclusionary. This undermines what a political party should be, and I think also explains why they are failing in this nation.
How could someone hijack the party? One person could not; but a large number of people could change the direction of the party. As it should be.
From personal experience, people don’t feel ownership, they feel betrayal. Not the same thing at all.
They are TOLD they get only two choices. And our current political system goes out of its way to re-enforce that at every step.
I did get involved. I was told to STFU as my views were not in the “mainstream”. It is one thing to have thoughtful, honest debate and discussion; quite another to be told to shut up and let the grown ups talk. Is it any wonder so many people are tuned off by the current political party system?
Horrible analogy, I have absolutely no role or impact in the World Series. But I am supposed to vote, correct?
No, what is worse is you used a really bad analogy to begin with and then tried to save it with this “play in the games and choose not to” nonsense.
In a perfect world people would be very active in the body politic. Society would allow for such via voting laws, workplace rules, etc. But we don’t live in such a world. Very few nations have such an attitude that would allow for serious and active political ivnolvement.
Typo on my part, part of the second paragraph should read:
“you run into trouble…in the fourth sentence.”
So, Bill Clinton wants to defend the Crime Bill?
Uh huh
…………
A twitter response.
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
Just saw Bill Clinton’s comments about his crime bill. I wish he’d spend some time with my clients so he can see how thoroughly wrong he is.
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
That legislation may very well have helped punish murderers too, but it’s absolutely devastated many for non-violent minor offenses
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
It created so many new crimes that more plea bargaining became a necessity just to manage the caseload
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
It eliminated education for inmates, so folks who went in had less chance to become productive members of society when they got out
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
And he deliberately exploited race to get it passed, relying on this notion of “superpredators” that weren’t even an actual thing
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
It remains one of the darkest blots on his presidency, and for him to keep defending it is just… wow
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
Like say “hey I thought it was a good idea at the time, but I was wrong. Let’s fix it.” Or something.
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
But don’t pretend like it’s a good thing when the end result of your handiwork is visible every day a defense attorney goes to court
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
When the end result of your handiwork is visible every day a kid ends up a federal felon bc he needs drug treatment but we prosecute instead
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
When the end result of your handiwork is visible every day people don’t trust police b/c you created incentives that corrupt law enforcement
T. Greg Doucette @greg_doucette
I’m done. Bill Clinton beclowned himself today and he can go kick rocks. Carry on.
Looks like Bill dropped his 2015 crime bill apology tour into the rabbit hole. Same old Bill that was also eager to trash AAs that were inconvenient for his political fortunes. A reason why some don’t want him anywhere near the WH again.
WaPo – Bill Clinton’s argument with Black Lives Matter protesters is 2016’s Sister Souljah Moment
Billmon:
WaPo:
Yep — Hill now needs more of those “hard working white” voters.
Bill was pitching hard to spin his actions as speaking for older African-Americans not comfortable with #blacklivesmatter. Someone’s trying to solidify the older African-Americans who have be loyal to Hillary Clinton by claiming they are concerned about the misplaced tactics of their kids. Democrats in the 1960s used the same pitch as they slammed SNCC as too radical–the same SNCC of John Lewis who they now lionize because he backs Hillary Clinton.
But of course. It’s the Bill Cosby schtick. It’s the carefully tended field where old white folks and old AAs agree: AAs kids, particularly boys and young men, are bad.
Should be a harder sell than it was back before a million AAs were locked up. These are the children and grandchildren of those WJC is doing his little dance for and Cosby has been knocked off his pedestal. But old habits don’t die quickly.
I agree with TarHeelDem down there. Bill Clinton wasn’t being racist so much as ageist. Support, not just black support, for #BLM breaks down pretty cleanly along age.
A lot of people defend that stupid authoritarian crime bill on the grounds of ‘crime really WAS that bad back then, cut them some slack’.
You know what? A lot of countries experienced a similar huge and then-unexplained spike in violent crime. And yet only the United States saw fit to implement a solution that went well beyond the excesses of the USSR, Thailand, and fucking North Korea. Something did need to be done about it, but if the endgame has a proportion of more people in jail than fucking China, you’ve gone well beyond ‘tragic cruelty for the greater good’ into simple ‘tragic cruelty’.
Now, as it turns out, the cause of the violent crime was lead poisoning. I don’t blame people back then for turning to their other pet theories. No one got the true cause of the crime wave right then — not even non-morons like liberals, Marxists, and black activists.
Nonetheless, I do blame people for advocating amputation as a cure for an open fracture. The United States did have a huge crime wave, but even at its peak it wasn’t that much worse than the previous one we had in the 20s-30s, let alone those in the 19th century. Did we really have to go full-Nazi jackboot this time around? No.
… and that’s without even getting into all of the other bullshit that happened that made the American crime wave worse, such as the gutting of public sector unions, globalization, welfare reform, etc.
I want to talk about a different disconnect between the system as it exists and the people’s expectations for how things ought to be in a sensible and fair world.
What people don’t really get is the idea of delegating their decision-making to someone else. But that’s what Pennsylvania voters really do, to a very large degree:
“They” don’t get it because the systems constructed by both parties during the period when voters demanded the right to choose the nominee (sort of like the prior movement to remove the selection of Senators from legislatures and allow voters to choose) worked to look like the voice of voters was being followed. ’16 is really the first election where voters are seeing cracks in the facades as both parties attempt to denigrate who the people are choosing.
Voters don’t want to have to vet some pissant, free-agent delegate — it’s difficult enough for them to vet the candidates for office. It’s archaic — like legislatures choosing Senators. We, the people, pay for primary elections, and if the two parties want to be private clubs, then we might as well tell them to run their own primaries (as they do caucuses, but those only work because those voters are also told that their votes matter and would lose their cache if those in primary states told the parties to go fly a kite).
In my view, the basic problem with the ‘First Past the Post’ system operated in similar ways in the USA and UK is that it basically creates a two party system with the rest almost nowhere, with a vote for a smaller party often regarded as a wasted vote. Yes the Scottish, Welsh Nationalist and Ulster Unionist parties muddy the waters somewhat, but that is because they are operating in what are essentially different countries.
The Republic of Ireland, by contrast, operates a multi-seat single transferable vote system which can become quite complicated to the delight of aficionados, but which is also surprising well understood by the electorate at large – which voted in two Constitutional referenda against attempts to change it.
Basically you vote for candidates 1,2,3,4,5.. etc. in order of your choice. The first preference votes are counted first and the bottom candidate is eliminated. The counters then look at the eliminated candidates second preferences, and distribute them to the remaining candidates who received the no. 2 preferences etc. Later, when perhaps both the first and second preference candidates on a voters ballot have been eliminated, their third choice comes into play. It is not uncommon for the final seat in a constituency to be determined by 12th. choice votes! Constituencies can have 3 to 5 seats depending on size. Boundaries are set by an independent commission to prevent gerrymandering.
You generally get a mix of parties and independents represented in each constituency and at national level, broadly in line with their share of the first preference vote, but also influenced by how good they are at attracting 2nd. and 3rd. preferences etc. Extremists who can attract a lot of committed first preference votes but who get few lower preference votes are disadvantaged by the system which tends to promote more moderate individuals and parties willing to work with each other – although not always – see current political situation! . A Trump like candidate might get a lot of first preference votes but few transfers of lower preference votes from other candidates he has insulted! A wide range of parties and individuals nevertheless get elected and voter participation is encouraged by the fact that you get a wide range of candidates to vote for.
Applying this system in to a congressional or electoral college election in Pennsylvania would result in say 4 or 5 3/4/5 seat constituencies set by an independent commission. On balance you might get 2 Democrat, one Republican, and one Independent or smaller party representative elected in each, but that could vary widely from one constituency to the next. Parties would seek to nominate a mix of rural/urban, male/female, Majority/minority, and young and old candidates to maximise their appeal hoping that any of their candidates eliminated would transfer well to their remaining candidates and ensure their election.
The system creates an entirely different political dynamic to that in the USA (and UK). It encourages coalitions of parties working together rather than polarising parties and candidates. Voters in the USA disinclined to vote for either Dem or GOP candidates would have a far wider range of candidates to vote for with a realistic chance of election. “Base” elections are less likely because voter participation is much higher across the board in any case.
You never get uncontested elections because one party is overwhelmingly dominant in a constituency and no one else has a chance of success. The variety and complexity of the population’s demographics are better represented. If you are a constituent with a problem, you have a range of representatives from different parties to go to, and there is a lot of competition within and between parties to be seen as better at looking after their constituent’s needs.
yes, a far superior system, probably on every single level.
But don’t feel too badly, even Donald Trump is just figuring out that you don’t win a nomination just by getting the most votes.
So, you won’t be mad if Clinton loses the nomination in the same fashion? Get real!! Like all the hubbub about some of her delegates not showing up to the second round of selection in Nevada, and now Missouri possibly.
Oh, that won’t matter because the coronation was completed before the race began and that crown is embedded in her scalp and therefore, can’t be knocked off.
There is always the French option…
Only if we can import a guillotine from China.
Another thing we don’t make in this country anymore… 🙂
I’ll be pretty happy, actually.
If that were even possible, I’d have been supporting Bernie rigorously for months. It’s not possible, and I knew it wasn’t possible, so I haven’t wasted my energy wishing otherwise.
This is one of the most annoying things I see time and time again. “I knew it wasn’t possible” Every time I see this I want to bash my head against a wall.
I have yet to see anyone address the impact that this attitude / behavior of the media, blogs, serious political discussions, etc., has on voters. From day one this has been the constant drumbeat. Let’s be brutally honest: most people are sheep. They will follow the crowd and go with the path of least resistance. People on these types of sites don’t fall into this category, but even here people are tired of being told this.
To make a poor analogy: SB50 was to be a coronation for the Carolina Panthers. They were the better team; they were going to dominate Denver on both side of the ball. Outside of hardcore Denver fans, people felt this was true. Remind me again who won? This is why they play the game, and this is why we vote.
Do you actually believe if the media, non-aligned political pundits, and blogs like this had been neutral and simply reported the facts of the race it would be the way it is today?
You didn’t “know” anything on the final outcome of this primary; but you did harp on the matter enough to beat people into the ground. Despite your claims of being impartial, your actions cast you as being anything but.
I disagree thats the way it should be, and accepting that it should be that way is for the average
Primary/caucus voter giving up on improving it.
But thats the way it currently is, and its why I got myself elected to be a delegate to the state convention. If the DFL thinks it can overwhelmingly support HRC with impunity when the people of Minnesota support Bernie then its time for me to get involved in the party and try to take it away from them even if only at the precint level.
Bravo.
Doesn’t this analysis completely ignore institutional power?
Let’s say that you and I both got together a few generations ago with some like-minded people and started clubs–EACH OF WHICH WAS ONE OF ONLY TWO POSSIBLE ORGANIZATIONS THAT COULD WIELD POLITICAL POWER.
And let’s say that we had organizational meetings, then started building chapters nationwide. Then say that we launched a slate of candidates for office, and THOSE CANDIDATES WERE THE ONLY POTENTIAL OFFICE HOLDERS IN THE UNITED STATES.
Now, suddenly, we’re supposed to let everyone else who isn’t a member of our clubs vote for who our nominee for president will be? Fuck them. We did the work. We built these clubs. If they want to join the country club, they can play by our rules.
You’re completely correct, of course, in terms of how power works. But ‘joining a party’ is the opposite of revolution. (And here’s my obligatory ‘I am a door-knocking phone-banking member of the Dem party, and I’ll vote for our nominee as many times as possible, even if it’s Rahm Emanuel or The Association of American Payday Lenders.)
Don’t like taxation without representation? Then pay your fucking taxes.
Do I need to call you a WAAMBULANCE?
You have correctly identified why people have false expectations, but your solution is what?
Keep doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result?
The real issue here is who is going to be the nominee of the two major parties, not the Green or Libertarian Parties.
So, you want to have influence over that?
Good.
But don’t expect the most effective way to do that is going to be just casting a vote in a primary. Your vote at a county convention would be much more powerful, for example, which is something Ron Paul understood, and it’s why he got almost all of Iowa’s delegates last time despite coming in third place.
Your solution is EXACTLY ‘do the same thing over and over, and expect different results.’
I agree that the real issue is, who is going to be the nominee of the two major parties. Further, I am a HUGE believer in the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I will knock on doors for the lesser evil, every time.
However, if we want progress, real progress, of the sort where we approach such impossible, naive pipe dreams as the UK’s health care system of decades ago, or California’s higher education system of the 1960s, I’m not sure we can expect ‘doing the same thing yet again’ is going to work.
I work in publishing. There’s been a lot of talk in publishing lately, about diversity. Because publishing is utterly shit at diversity. Most everyone in publishing is nice, and well-meaning, and liberal and smart … but there are institutional barriers that prevent meaningful change. And it’s not enough to say, ‘Well, more diverse people should start joining the publishing industry.’ There’s a reason they haven’t. There are systemic flaws inside the industry, structural issues, that lead to unfortunate results.
And that’s just some podunk industry. In politics, there’s a million times more power and money, the stakeholders are holding much bigger stakes. So no, ‘join the club’ won’t work. Once you crash the gates, you turn into Markos Moulitsas, not because of any personal flaw, but because of systemic pressures.
You say, ‘your solution is what?’ And you’re completely right to ask that, and you’re complete right to mock the fact that I have no solution. But a good first step, maybe, is to see the problem clearly. Or at least to reject solutions that won’t work.
I don’t know. I don’t know what to do. I don’t know what could possibly work to change the Democratic Party into a vehicle for transformative progressive change. To be honest, I keep hoping that you’ll tell me.
You might start by recognizing and honoring the hordes of people who have been organizers within the party, who got Obama elected and prevented us getting bogged down in Syria or in a shooting war with Iran. The people who just got tens of millions of people access to health care after others failed for 100 years to accomplish that.
You might recognize why a Sanders campaign failed, and that it was because they didn’t organize at the local level starting four years ago, and they haven’t built up the national chapters that could field all the delegates he’ll need at the convention.
Recognize who has and who hasn’t achieved progressive change and that progressive change is occurring right now due to the concerted efforts of people who get little credit for it, and often take tons of abuse from being establishment insiders, or worse.
Okay. I recognize all that. Now what?
You’re being uncharacteristically defensive and dismissive. And small-c conservative. My question is, ‘how do we make things better?’ Your answer is, ‘Be thankful for what you have.’
How do we stop slaughtering hundreds of foreign children with flying murderbots? Be thankful we’re not bogged down in Syria. How do we implement a health care system that’s as good as the UK’s? Be thankful that there are only 30 million uninsured Americans.
And that’s true! Things are far better than they could be. But when I tell my son I expect an A not a C, I don’t accept the excuse that at least it’s not an F. Even though that’s true, too. Instead, I try to motivate him to work harder.
Honest question: do you think that if we continue to progress at the same rate that we have in the past 30 years, we will be equal to our future problems?
Maybe that’s the fundamental disagreement.
Most of Hillary Clinton’s base won’t even be alive in 30 years. Maybe that’s your answer right there.
Almost all of the Silent Generation and a good majority of the Baby Boomers simply won’t have to deal (or think they won’t have to deal, hello fracking) with the worst of worker reproletarian, mounting household debt, the revival of European and American fascism, the emergence of strong AI, and above all else climate change. A 100% chance for things to continue on their trajectory with no bad surprises makes sense for them in an amoral, self-interested way.
That explains why Gen-X/Y/probably Z is willing to gamble on a better future. 40-50 years of the world proceeding like it has been would be so disastrous that even a Trump + GOP cleansweep with the government going full-on George Wallace isn’t actually that much worse than all of that shit still happening under Hillary Clinton when you look at their lifespan taken as a whole.
As a supplement to my above post:
If we look at Agree – Disagree we get the supporters of Trump, Sanders, Cruz, Kasich and Clinton in that order. That is interesting.
I have no issue with this recognition. But you fail to list the bad with the good: least transparent administration in modern history, punishment of legitimate whistle blowers, extension of the security / surveillance state, anti environmental policies, bailing out the banks and not the people, etc. And while he is working to fix some of these matters, that has more do to with him wanting a better place in history, and it being his final term. No more “political powder” to keep dry.
I agree that these are some of the reasons Sanders is in the situation he is in; but you fail to mention others: the DNC seeing this process as a coronation for HRC, people like you and the media telling everyone Sanders has no chance, and Sanders refusing to going to Corporate donor route to secure funding.
Can you tell me who has achieved progressive change? Because it has not come from Obama in any lasting or meaningful way.
I think there is an interesting parallell here between your call to join the party and irritation when Steggles dismiss it as completely ignoring institutional power, and the irritaiton many express at your dismissal of Sanders campaign.
In both cases we have a possible, but unlikely, way to enact change. Both depends on a lot of people believing in it in order for it to work, and if enough do it actually works. It is unlikely, which is why calls for a rational work/benefit analysis are made, and it depends on moral which is why those calls are grating. The rational analysis is standing in the way of change, because only when enough people do something that is unlikely to work, it becomes likely to work.
That is also why you see campaign managers prioritising moral over looking silly and going down claiming victory is at hand. This is by the way the opposite of the world war two article that centerfield posted the other day, there moral meant little as the industrial appartuses chewed out forever more guns, tanks, planes and men. But it was an excellent article, so thanks centerfield.
I think the way to attack the problem is stated in Gene Sharp’s excellent little book “From dictatorship to democracy”. If you want to lead a revolution you first have to analyse the state you want to revolt agaisnt. What are its pillars of support, how can these be undermined, where can alternative structures be built? Then formulate a grand strategy, break it down in different strategies and find tactical methods that you can apply. And the grand strategy should be so hard to counter that it can be communicated publically, otherwise you can not get enough people involved. Then start building by applying tactics that increases your support while complying with your strategies.
And it is hard. Otherwise everybody would be doing it.
I wonder if the ‘it’s OUR party and we can override the majority/plurality if we want’ people realize that Sanders is the moderate choice of the newly re-proled workers. And it’d be less disruptive in the medium-term if they made a MLK vs. MX compromise with them.
You get rid of Sanders and this problem isn’t going to go away, even if he and Warren are pretty much the last gasp of the New Deal Democrats. Why? Because of things this:
Note that this is Denmark, which has the lowest poverty rate in the world.
The liberals are making the next generation Red as hell. And it’s going to continue until these generational economic doldrums get reversed or the radicals completely upend the moderate consensus. Your call, liberals. Just remember that no one is going to buy your ‘b-but you have to go through the proper organizational channels, derp’ excuse.
Actually, belief is not required nor does it occur in many places. All that is required is having enough people go to a polling place, endure whatever hassles the election officials put up and vote for the slate of candidates on the ballot or write in exactly what is required to have each and every one of those votes to register as valid for the count on one particular day.
As long as someone who does not duplicate their action does this, it doesn’t matter what they think about it.
In the 1980 election in Wilkes County, NC, a $5 bill was sufficient to get people to vote the Republican ticket.
In the remaining city machines, the promise of jobs and contracts or cancellation of existing contracts and loss of jobs are sufficient to get people to vote correctly.
Which points to a question that no one has investigated: how are these transactions enforced? One suspects that a lot of it is neighborhood or occupational peer pressures, which might explain more about geographical segments and occupational segments than “interest” does. And records of showing up to vote certainly can show who did. But the ballot auditing cross-reference in most election systems can also be used to track certain ballots.
Frank Kent’s classic book, The Great Game of Politics, written in the height of machine politics, is relevant today.
OT:
Obama pursued transformation as Republicans chose self-destruction
By Fareed Zakaria April 7 at 8:10 PM
In an interview during the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama said that Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of the United States in a way that Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton did not. Clearly, Obama aspired to be a transformational president, like Reagan. At this point, it’s fair to say that he has succeeded. Look at what’s happened during his tenure to the country, his party and, most tellingly, his opposition.
The first line in Obama’s biography will have to do with who he is, the first African American president. But what he has done is also significant. In the wake of the financial collapse in 2008, Obama worked with the outgoing George W. Bush administration, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of both parties in Congress to respond forcefully on all fronts — fiscal, monetary, regulatory. The result is that the United States came out of the Great Recession in better shape than any other major economy.
Obama’s signal accomplishment is health care, where he was able to enact a law that has resulted in 90 percent of Americans having health insurance. Although the law has its problems, it achieves a goal first articulated by Theodore Roosevelt 100 years ago.
Then, there is the transformation of U.S. energy policy. The administration has made investments and given incentives to place the United States at the forefront of the emerging energy revolution. Just one example: Over Obama’s terms , solar costs have plummeted by 70 percent and solar generation is up 3,000 percent.
Finally, Obama has pursued a new foreign policy, informed by the lessons of the past two decades, that limits U.S. involvement in establishing political order in the Middle East, focusing instead on counterterrorism. This has freed the administration to pursue new approaches with countries such as Iran and Cuba and to direct attention and resources to the Asia-Pacific region, which in just a few years will be home to four of the world’s five largest economies.
Just as Reagan solidified the ideological position of the Republican Party — around free markets, free trade, an expansive foreign policy and an optimistic outlook — Obama has helped push the Democratic Party to be more willing to use government to achieve public purposes. And his party has responded.
In that 2008 campaign interview, Obama pointed out that Reagan had not changed the country single-handedly; he took advantage of a shift in the national mood. The same could be said about the United States today. Years of stagnant wages, rising inequality and the financial crisis have created a new political atmosphere, one that Obama has helped shape.
The biggest impact of his presidency, however, can be seen in his opposition, the Republican Party, which is in the midst of an ideological breakdown. Surveying this scene, conservative columnist Daniel Henninger writes in the Wall Street Journal that Obama “is now close to destroying his political enemies — the Republican Party, the American conservative movement, and the public-policy legacy of Ronald Reagan.” Obama’s success in this regard, if it can be called that, is a passive one. He has let his opponents self-destruct and never overplayed his hand.
Yes.
We will know better in January of 2017 how transformative he has been.
It is possible that come January 2017 DAESH will no longer be a force in Syria and Iraq and that terrorism will no longer be the poster child of international politics.
It is possible that the Congress will be a new crew.
What historians will be studying when the memos are declassified a few decades hence are exactly how so many opponents and bad legislation experienced unfortunate accidents while Obama was catching criticism from both sides and playing the role of the great reconciler.
yes
unfortunate accidents, very well put
All I ask is that TPP and TTIP be one of those REALLY BAD things that fails….but he had better hurry.
The Constitution did not provide for established political parties. Indeed, Madison at the Constitutional Convention saw them as anathema to effective governance no matter how much he himself became a party man in the Jefferson and his own administrations. The framers of the Constitution also assumed that their class privileges were and for all times would be safely enshrined and protected.
Until the Civil War the party system was not so rigid as it became under the two-party system instituted after the Civil War. In this states were the instruments of instituting corruption in government.
The Progressive Movement thought that direct election of all officials and primary elections within parties would be a corrective for that corruption. In the past 100 years or so, the primary, convention, and caucus system has gone through several movements of reform and subsequent reinstitution of corruption. It is pretty clear that we are past time for some sort of structural reform in the way elections are conducted. From the 1960s until the 2000 election most liberal and progressive Democrats took the electoral process for granted. Over the past decade an a half, the first task seemed to be to retake the levers of power from Republicans, then it seemed to be to get reformers into the Democratic offices (“better Democrats”). It is now clear that the structural aspects of candidate selection prevent “better Democrats” from reaching office. Part of that gauntlet is the arcane primary, convention, caucus processes. Trying to argue that this is beneficial is a pretty strange exercise; rooting it in a competition of individual interest view of politics is somewhat quaint. It goes to the fundamental purpose of democratic governance. And that purpose is the subject of debate once again, especially because liberal and progressive Democrats cannot comprehend why some people apparently vote against their own economic interest.
What is apparent is that the notion of competing interests as what politics transmits through representation is a reduced and mechanical view of representative politics that lets politicians off the hook of actually communicating with their constituents so long as they have an idea of the interests that they must represent in office. It also is the foundation of the idea that a campaign is a competitive market in which a product, the candidate, seeks to be the favorite interest deliverer as a person, or the one to deliver the favorite package of interests. Favorite being legitimated by majority vote in the general election.
One of the issues in the political process during campaigns is the differential access that constituents have to candidates and the differential frame of the conversations that occur with candidates when the hoi polloi actually individually get a face-to-face with a candidate–any candidate. Anyone who has faced the “politican’s mask” of a city council member in a small city as compared to the frank conversations one used to be able to have will understand this. Or limitation of topics that a candidate will talk about (or an official will constrain their web site email systems to deliver) that increasingly limit post-election representation.
The current system means that voters for delegates to a convention or to the actual public office are voting for a pig in a poke. They never know what they are getting, even with incumbents. They are committing to having a person in power with no possibility of midcourse corrections until the next election. The conversation is totally from the PR operation of the public official or candidate; there is no openness to outside information. The public understand and is frustrated with that as much as they are by the sensitivity of politicians to slights of lese majeste. Politicians no longer think they are ordinary people; more importantly they no longer hide their contempt for the hoi polloi having a surprising take on an issue. Thus every candidate’s difficulty grokking #blacklivesmatter in its varying forms.
The legacy institutions’ power over public officials — party machinery, party leadership, national security institutions, law enforcement institutions — also constrain how politicians can respond to their constituents. Legislatures have lost their power as bureaucracies and executives have been given the “power to act promptly”.
Only the self-validating percentage of the 1% converse with politicians. Everyone else gets marketed to.
For delegates, ordinary people don’t get to converse with them between selection and when they vote at convention. But those with access do. And those at the convention itself do. Whatever they do is done essentially anonymously in current practice and the conversations that sway them are hidden from view for all but the elite who are in the room.
Maybe it’s time to examine what exactly someone like, say Thomas Paine, had in mind as to how government should operate. How does the process engage ordinary people? What prerequisites are required for that to happen?
Continuing to make virtues of necessities doesn’t seem to be working to stop the drift into feudalism.
…liberal and progressive Democrats cannot comprehend why some people apparently vote against their own economic interest.
In my (scientific) line of work, if the data don’t confirm the hypothesis, the default is to re-examine the hypothesis, not to blame the data for misbehaving.
People cast their votes for all sorts of reasons, economic and otherwise. Why is this so difficult to understand? And by the way, telling people that their non-economic reasons are stupid is not persuasive.
Thank you for restating my point there. The reason, IMO, is liberal and progressive Democrats are stuck in an academic model of politics as a matter of interests as opposed to a conversation about a whole range of issues and modes of conversing about public decisions.
OT:
Inside America’s Auschwitz
A new museum offers a rebuke — and an antidote — to our sanitized history of slavery
By Jared Keller
smithsonian.com
April 4, 2016
At t first glance, the “Wall of Honor” at Louisiana’s Whitney Plantation slavery museum — a series of granite stones engraved with the names of hundreds of slaves who lived, worked and died there — evokes any number of Holocaust memorials. But as the future mayor of New Orleans noted at the museum’s 2008 opening, this site is different; this is America’s Auschwitz.
The former indigo, sugar and cotton operation, which finally opened to the public after years of careful restoration in December 2014 as the country’s first slave museum, is a modern avatar of injustice. Nestled off the historic River Road that runs alongside the slow, lazy crook of the Mississippi, the estate was built in the late 1700s by entrepreneur Jean Jacques Haydel upon land purchased by his German-immigrant father, Ambroise. It was the younger Haydel who expanded the estate and established the plantation as a key player in Louisiana’s sugar trade, transitioning the main crop away from the less-profitable indigo markets. A couple of years after the Civil War, a Northerner by the name of Bradish Johnson bought the property and named it after his grandson Harry Whitney.
The restored property, a mix of original structures and replicas, includes an overseer’s home, replica slave cabins — scenes from Django Unchained were filmed right next door — and a blacksmith’s shop, among other buildings. Even when nearly deserted, it feels like the place could spring to life at any moment as the slaves return from the adjacent sugar cane fields. The 15-year restoration effort was backed by John Cummings, the local lawyer and real estate mogul who purchased the land from a petrochemical company and invested $8 million of his own money into restoring the property and developing the museum — reportedly out of his own sense of white guilt over the horrors of slavery, according to the Times. “When you leave here,” he told the New Orleans Advocate, “you’re not going to be the same person who came in.”
“…but that’s an artificial and temporary boost …”
Assuming their vote is sincere, then if their candidate wins, and if they continue to feel (s)he’s more or less representing them, and they are benefitting from it in some way (including “morale”) — I would bet they’d be more likely to stay in. They now have a stake in it.
This is also a social thing, of course. They also feel a sense (however vague) of community with others who feel (more or less) the same way.
It doesn’t mean they have to agree with everything (s)he does or says, just that they sense a significant improvement, from their point of view.
If their candidate (now in office) is under attack for the very reason that persuaded them to vote for him or her, that will probably strengthen their conviction, and bring about a “rallying” effect.
The corollary to this of course is that if their candidate loses, or if (s)he wins and they get “buyer’s remorse”, they will have no reason to identify with the party.
The more general corollary is that making the party more appealing to more people strengthens the party.
Not to defend the PA system, but I’m curious as to how often (if ever) delegates have voted independent of the voters they represent.
If I’m not mistaken, the federal electoral college (which is inherently undemocratic, since the vote in states with small population has more clout than in states with large population) works in a similar way.
But that granted, have the electors ever voted contrary to their popular mandate?
One Kerry delegate voted for Edwards in 2004, apparently by mistake. But, still it’s in the historical recored that Edwards got one vote in the Electoral College.
This is the best Establishment summary as I see it:
The system is rigged on both sides of the aisle so don’t even pretend to think you live in a democracy. Don’t be angry because this is how it’s done and it’s been done that way for a very long time. Get used to it, join in if it makes you feel better but don’t ever think you’ll never win, because we’ve already seen to that.
This is the era of the neo-liberal New Democrats. Just because they chose someone else in 2008 did not mean the end of New Democrats, we’re back. Just remember, Obama took more money from Wall Street than anyone. That makes it right unless now you’re suddenly against Obama after voting for him twice.
There is a defense for this point of view. It’s the “Unruh defense” made infamous by the California Assembly Speaker decades ago:
“If you can’t take their money, drink their booze, eat their food, screw their women and vote against them, you don’t belong here.”
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/04/the-myth-that-obamas-taking-huge-contributions-from-wall-stre
et-was-fine.html
No need to worry about any of this because frankly, where do those angry people think they’re going to go? We simply don’t need them anyway because the Republicans are so bad this year their base is going to cross over and vote for us. What could go wrong?
The Republicans have their four legged stool. I’m not sure what the Democrats have. There is a foreign policy leg, a corporate leg , and, it appears, one large basket of domestic policies. Until Sanders that leg seems to have been more often than not mostly splinters of economics and social issues ( BLM, immigration, abortion, racism, LGBT and the like).
The trick to win the nomination is to gather up those 718 super delegates on the way to the total of 2300 or so majority. Even I can see the way to do that is money honey. Just give me a basket full of money and let me make friends with it. See you at the coronation.
Now the Green party emerges every four years with a candidate and a program. I suppose the communist and socialist parties around the world do the same. No need for primaries since an insular group controls them all. Why worry about what anyone else thinks, just lock the doors and let them figure it out. Who knew the democratic party was the same? You would think there would be at least an integrated plan for the next four years. Even Jill Stein has that. We have the super delegates to handle it for us.
Yes, I am being a little snarky here. But it just seems wrong to allow the hacks to control it all. It could be changed if we all joined up and changed the party, started a political revolution, I suppose. (didn’t someone say that already?) But people simply do not do that. There tends to be other important things to do, like cleaning, changing diapers and such. For me, anyway, I like to think I get to say who will represent me in the election, not party elites. Hell, Jill can do that.
Not so much join a Party, as join The Party.
If you want an actual revolution, that is.
Vanguardism, and not broad, coalition, mass parties is the means to that end.