The Republican National Convention in Cleveland is going to be a hot mess no matter what happens. In a way, the cleanest outcome would be if Trump just waltzed in there with the requisite delegates to accept his coronation. Except, even that would be the most awkward coronation since 11 Frimaire, Year XIII, when, with Pope Pius VII presiding, Napoleon placed the “crown of Charlemagne” on his own head.
More likely, as Byron York points out, no one will win on the first ballot in Cleveland. And there’s a possibility that the eventual nominee will neither have won the most delegates during the primaries and caucuses, nor received the most popular votes.
Mr. York sees this as significantly more problematic than the situation in 2000 when George W. Bush “won” the presidency despite losing the popular vote. The reason that 2000 wasn’t so bad?
The 2000 winner of the popular vote, Al Gore, lost the presidency because of the constitutional structure under which electors, not popular vote totals, determine who enters the White House. Seeing the popular-vote loser, George W. Bush, win the election was unfortunate — it hadn’t happened since the 19th Century — but it was specifically provided for in the Constitution. Democrats unhappily accepted the result because they accepted the Constitution as the bedrock of our system of government.
Yes, we all remember Bush v. Gore, but it’s true that Democrats accepted that it was legitimate to have the Electoral College victor become the president even if they received fewer overall votes. The contention was that Gore was the rightful winner of both.
For York, the Republicans will never see the same kind of legitimacy in their nominee because the rules aren’t based on the Constitution:
In an intra-party Republican fight, on the other hand, the winner of the 2016 nomination could be determined not by the Constitution but by rules written by party activists and insiders the week before the GOP convention. If those rules can be reasonably viewed as unfair, they won’t command the fundamental respect and consensus of a constitutional provision. And the resulting nominee won’t command that respect, either.
Maybe I am alone, but I see this is as an overblown concern for two reasons. One is substantive and the other is purely political.
The substantive reason this isn’t that big of a deal is that the popular vote is not a good measure of support. People note that Bernie Sanders does disproportionately well in low-turnout caucuses, but one downside to that is that he doesn’t get many popular votes out of states that he’s carried easily. In most of these states, Sanders would have won a higher-turnout primary, too, just by smaller margins. You can’t just add up the popular vote and say it means anything when one candidate excels in a region of the country that favors caucuses and another runs strongest in regions that have primaries.
The political reason it’s not that big of a deal is that the whole point of denying Trump (and presumably Cruz) the nomination is to get a more electable candidate. If the new nominee is vastly more electable, that will more than make up for being contentious within the Republican Party. I don’t think more than a handful of people will still be nursing their butthurt from July 21st when November 8th rolls around.
During primary season, it seems like countless voters will stay home if they don’t like or approve of their choice in November, but this has never been true. What’s true is that Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan would run stronger than Donald Trump and probably stronger than Ted Cruz, too. That doesn’t mean that they’d win, but they’ve already shown that they can be at least a little bit competitive.
When people have a choice between two tickets, they generally focus on that choice, and not on what happened months earlier.
What Mr. York should worry about is Trump providing people (in at least some key states) with a third ticket.
As Atrios points out today, the NYTimes already rolled out its Ryan-ganda. There will be more of this BS coming.
And I will point out…remember when the Times and the Washington Post were reliably Dem newspapers? When the Wall Street Journal was reliably Republican?
Now?
Now the masks are coming off of the Permanent Government’s media complex. And who do we have to thank for that?
That’s riiiight…Mr. Unthinkable, Donald Trump.
Have the Wall Street Journal and the NY Times ever publicly agreed on anything truly political? I can’t think of one instance, myself. But “Dump Trump?” Oh yes!!! They are trying to be subtle about it…they don’t want to lose their respective readerships, after all, because then they’d be of no real use to their masters…but their essential PermaGovness is blaring through the ever-widening cracks in their various facades.
I never before realized that Lewis Carroll was a societal prophet.
The borogroves are feeling very mimsy, because the mome raths certainly done outgrabe!!!
This next several months promises to be very good for the U.S. in general, in my view. The sheep skins are being forced off of the wolves because the wolves finally got too greedy.
Let the games begin!!!
Like dat!!!
AG
I’ll grant you this AG: Trump’s done away with typical Republican donor class marketing spin. Instead of stupid phrases like “self deportation,” he’s going boot people out and build a wall. He’s not going to “reform” Social Security to make room for tax cuts for rich people, typical Republican fakery to pretend to show they care about the deficit, he’s going to keep it and do massive tax cuts too!
It’s nice to see his honesty has fucked all the carefully crafted marketing spin up.
A very useful corrective to what Josh Marshall thinks.
Marshall makes a good point though. Yeah maybe they can deny Trump the nomination. But deny it to Cruz as well? I find that very hard to imagine. Cruz is going to have a LOT of true believers at that convention, and Cruz doesn’t strike me as the type to go quietly if the Establishment tells him to step aside.
Also true, but I think hes too triumphalist.
To add to what you’re saying, Boo, just think of how a Romney aide openly admitted to a campaign reset after the primary. Republicans came around just fine, eventually.
It’s my understanding that some of Trump’s supporters are people who’ve never (or rarely) voted before. I heard something on NPR that presented interviews with Hells Angels, for example. A couple of Angels openly said: politics is mostly bs, and I never vote bc there’s no point. None of the candidates will do anything that benefits me. It’s different with Trump, etc.
Well I think these Angels are wrong that somehow Trump will be “better” for them, personally, but that’s another issue.
My point being that voters, such as these Angels, will mostly shrug their shoulders, roll their eyes and go back to never voting. Which will make the .001% very very happy.
I agree that once the dust settles, the core of the GOP will GOTV for whomever is presented as “their” candidate. There will be a smaller group of angry GOP voters, who’ll piss and moan and mostly not vote. But they’ll be back again the next time around.
So really, what’s the downside for the GOP?? There isn’t any. If they want to ram Ryan or RMoney down their constituents throats, so what? The dittoheads will most vote for whomever is there bc heaven forfend they vote for anyone from the D party.
And then the usual beat down will go on.
Bank on it.
All these dire predictions of the GOP imploding or dying or going away are, imo, silly. Ain’t gonna happen.
You write:
I disagree. I think that if Trump wins he will form his own private army on the Hell’s Angels model. What was “criminal” will once again be legal.
Profit first and damn the torpedoes.
That’s been his style all along.
Watch.
He’s a baaaaaaad man!!!
Watch.
AG
What makes you think they would have voted now? Historic “non-voters” who suddenly get all het up about the latest shiny object can be counted on to do one thing: still not vote. At least not in the numbers it takes to tip a race.
But this is the election where they’re coming out!
Well that sort of goes with the point I was making. Who knows if they’ll vote or not, although it appears that possibly at least some of the usually-not-a-voter type did come out and vote in the Primary. It’s my understanding that there’s been huge turn out, esp amongst those identifying as Republican.
If that’s the case, and the PTB block Trump, my guess is that some of those never-vote types won’t bother to vote – yet again – in the General.
Could be the Republicans are infected with their own case of lachesism. Better to tear the party asunder now so the rebuilding can begin in preparation for the next election than to patch the structural fissures with duct tape and hope it holds through this election.
“Lacheism”. My bad.
There’s a big difference between winning a free and fair election using rules that might not coincide with winning the national popular vote (say if either Sanders or Clinton were to win the most pledged delegates but lose the popular vote count) and actively overriding the results of the election to install the losing candidate- or possibly even some candidate who wasn’t even running (say the Republicans try to install Romney or Ryan at the convention).
In the first case you have a fair, democratic election that isn’t perfectly representative of a national popular majority but still reflects the will of the voters. In the second your “election” simply isn’t a democratic contest.
If the GOP doesn’t actively channel racial/mysoginistic hatred during the general, that substantial portion of the republican base is going to have to have it out somehow.
Whether that’s via violence and extremism, or a third party trump, or something else, I don’t know, but these people have been emboldened and that energy doesn’t just disappear when a better liar is deemed the nominee.
I was feeling that way, too, but now I’m on the fence. This is based on nothing concrete, mind you. Just my own random thoughts. Only time will tell, but this is a segment of the population that loves to bitch and whine and talk big, but when it comes to actually doing something… not so much.
I could definitely see something happening in Cleveland. After that? I’m skeptical. These people are lazy (as are most citizens). Yes, people are unhappy, but when it comes to really getting off their butts to do something… as said: I’m skeptical.
I could be wrong, of course. Just my speculation.
I still think that they are in pony and unicorn land.
The person with the most votes doesn’t win the nomination?
How can this NOT be a problem?
I want someone to explain it to me.
You rewrite the rules in the middle of the game?
really?
That’s how the convention actually works,
AFTER the voting is over, the insiders gather and write the rules spelling out how the votes will be counted.
In 2012, R-money’s minions wrote the win eight states by a majority to deny Ron Paul’s name from being put in nomination so the votes from his delegates were never “officially” recorded.
This time will be no different.
The GOtPers certainly learned their Stalin rule very well;
Wow. That is impressive ratf*ckery.
The elites decide how the votes will be counted before the primaries and caucuses, too.
The Democrats have at least adopted a uniform process of proportional allocation. So, the big split is between caucus and primary states.
The Republicans have a free for all with the rules.
And when it’s over, the elites decided how to count the votes again, but it’s really about electing delegates to the conventions, and the media doesn’t tell people how to elect delegates to the conventions.
I’m not convinced the ratfuckers can get away with stealing the nomination; especially when they’re fucking their own storm troops. Who’s going to man the battle stations? There’s a lot of work to be done to win an election. Will Cruz and Trump supporters pound the pavement to get Ryan or Kasich or Romney elected? And that assumes Trump and Cruz don’t inspire rebellion. Those guys aren’t going to echo Joe fuckin’ Lieberman.
Just for fun let me pose a hypothetical, something that could never happen.
First, Trump has by far the most delegates but not enough to win on the first ballot because it’s still a three way race. Let’s say the Republican Establishment pulls out their bag of tricks and gives the nomination to someone that participated in no primaries. Trump gets offended and decides to go third party, something he has often threatened to do if treated unfairly.
Second, let’s say that Bernie pulls ahead of Hillary by a few pledged delegates but the Democratic Establishment decides to do something they say they will never do, overturn the voter decision with super delegates. The Bernie base is more than angry.
Jill Stein then asks Bernie to take her place at the top of the Green Party ticket with Jill named as VP. Bernie accepts because Trump is already third party negating the spoiler aspect.
As both the Democrats and Republicans fracture this becomes a four way race in the general election. With Trump and Bernie each taking half of their party’s voters, would that split be more or less than half for which one? We would have two establishment candidates and two outsiders with emotions boiling over.
Could we see the first win ever to place a Green Party candidate in the White House? I could live with that. How likely would that throw the election into the House? What happens down ticket?
How would a four-way race with the splits you describe work out in the electoral college? Interesting puzzle. Faithless electors could enter into the equation. Would any of the four get 270 votes? Possibly not. Then the decision would default to the House and be a test of the 12th Amendment. Of the four candidates, the one with the least number of electors would be eliminated. Members of the House would cast two votes — one for POTUS and one for VP. It’s technically possible that a VP candidate could end up as POTUS. Undefined is how long that person would serve in that capacity.
Could you get a deal in the electoral college? Wasn’t that Wallace strategy in 1968?
Say that Sanders/Stein wins the west coast and New England, Clinton the rest of the blue states, Trump gets the south and Romney the rest of the red states. Then depending on swing states that would be either Clinton or Romney states you could get a green+dem majority or a rep+Trump. In either case you would also have a Clinton+Romney majority, should they choose that.
If this were Parliamentary, wouldn’t you expect the two conservative wings. Romney and Clinton, to be the likelier allies? That is how Harper held on so long in Canada with a ~30% majority.
If it follows the pattern of Europe during austerity, then yes the two establishment wings would find each other easier to work with then their rebel wings.
I take it that you mean Cruz (not Romney) would get the other red states that Trump doesn’t get. Yes, electors can bolt from the candidate that won in their state, buy doubt they’d do so in sufficient numbers without a larger deal which would likely be that the candidate releases his/her delegates. Which candidate would do that? And keep in mind that a majority and not simply a plurality is required for a candidate to win.
The combined electors for Trump and Cruz would struggle to get to 270. Those for Sanders and Clinton would be more likely to possess that number; so, I guess it would come down to the one with the lowest number of electors to release them to the other candidate to avoid throwing it into the House — a guaranteed Trump or Cruz win unless the DEMs retake House which at this point seems unlikely. If I read it correctly, in both the electoral college and the House, the choices are limited to the general election candidates.
oops — you meant Romney as the GOP establishment nominee and Cruz is SOL. Looking at Cruz’s base of support, they’re going to need someone other than Romney to capture most of that plus the more traditional GOP voters.
Yeah, that was the scenario. I apparently substituted GOP establishment nominee with Romney without realising that no particular nominee had been suggested.
So to game it out, the Republicans (both wings) wins if it goes to the House, so then the Democrats (both wings) has the most incentive to deal before. And with the same red/blue state split as in 2012 the Clintons has two options which they can play against each other. While Sanders/Stein has little backing in the House and no one else to deal with but Clinton.
So Sanders/Stein can get some negotiated settlement and Clinton becomes president. Or in other words Sanders gets as little or as much as he could get by making a deal with Clinton before the general election and saving the trouble of a campaign. Thus might not be worth it, even if Trump runs as independent.
Far more moving pieces than that. Your scenario suggests that HRC would end up with more electors than Sanders in a four-way general election. Based on the primaries/caucuses to date, that’s not a given. A few examples:
UT – Cruz got 69% — the remaining 31% plus DEM votes would have to consolidate to a single candidate to challenge Cruz. Thus, Cruz takes the state.
VT – same situation but for Sanders.
TX – Cruz only got 44%, but his raw vote total is 25% more than Clinton’s 65%. Cruz only needs a 50/50 split with Trump of the “not Cruz and not Trump GOP vote to beat HRC with 100% of the DEM vote. So, TX goes to Cruz.
So far, the closest HRC comes to being in a similar position to that of Cruz in TX is VA. But that one is somewhat undefined because Rubio was in the second slot and Cruz was a distant third. Her next best state is OH; again undefined because Kasich won with a large margin.
Assuming primary voter loyalty to the four candidates and no extreme disproportionate realignment of voters for other candidates, MO remains red but the winner could either be Trump or Cruz. IL and MA remain blue but the winner could be either HRC or Sanders. What’s possibly more interesting is the potential for states to flip from red to blue and vice versa. Out of the states that have held their primaries, there are 345 EC votes. Here’s the breakdown that I get:
Cruz: 67
GOP undefined: 27
Trump: 81
FL undefined: 29 (likely flip to Trump)
HRC: 31 (I gave her OH and VA)
DEM undefined: 56
Sanders: 59
Red states that could flip (all from Trump to HRC) are AZ, LA, NC, and AR.
Blue states that could flip (in addition to FL) are:
VA and OH (from HRC to GOP undefined), NV (DEM undefined to Trump), IA and CO (DEM undefined to Cruz), ME, NH, WI (Sanders to Cruz).
This would greatly expand the number of competitive states. Very few would be totally safe for one of the four candidates. If as projected, HRC trounces Sanders in NY and the GOP participation rate isn’t yuuge and is near an even split between Trump and Cruz, that would be her first safe state.
DWS is ducking a request to debate Tim Canova.
DEM party elites are actively trying to defeat Sestak in the PA primary. Somewhat more blatantly than they’re trying to defeat Sanders.
heh — maybe both rotten parties will implode in the same election cycle.
Sanders is 2 million votes behind. It’s the Democratic voters who are rejecting him, not the “party elites.”
ho hum
That happens every time Sestak runs. DNC reeeally does not like him.
Joe Sestak’s last stand against the Democratic Party – POLITICO
Is that the same money they need for down-ticket races?
Pennsylvania and Florida Senate, both. DNC is all in to nominate the conservadem, even if he’s a Republican recruit.
Oops, forgot the Maryland one. Not sure the DNC is active in that one, though.
https:/www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/md-senate-race-very-close-with-stark-racial-divide
2016/04/04/a7a9aeb0-fa7c-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html?tid=a_inl
I won’t say that I have disdain for Joe Sestak. But I don’t want him to be the Democratic nominee.
My preference is for Fetterman, but he may not be viable. McGinty is a perfectly good candidate, and she’d be the first woman elected statewide to an office as important as senator. We’ve never had a woman governor or senator here.
I haven’t decided who I’ll vote for, but it won’t be Sestak.
As for Florida, I’d vote for virtually anyone over Alan Grayson. I think he’s a fraud and a terrible person, and while he’d vote better than Patrick Murphy most of the time, that’s not enough for me. The issue in Florida is that the two choices are so suboptimal that it’s just laughable. In Pennsylvania, we have two good choices, one of whom would be excellent.
Attempting to preserve the POV that Sestak is some across-the-board hero of the Left who is being undermined by the eeevil Establishment is a little much.
It’s not 2010. I gave to Sestak’s race then, but the candidates are different this year.
McGinty sounds like typical business Dem in the environmental regulation/power sector revolving door. Shy about her pro-fracking positions? Even on public lands?? Fracking is a pretty big issue in Pa these days. Ouch. Why do you think she will prevail? Her run for gov kinda foundered…
Wow. Is there hope of putting DWS out of a job? That is some fundraising.
Three conventions define American Politics:
1964, where Rockefeller blasted the GOP right from the podium, and the Goldwater forces erupted in anger.
1968, where riots outside the convention reflected the split inside of it
1980, when Kennedy and Carter were unable to heal there wounds.
Since then conventions are managed affairs.
The problem for the GOP is that it has the two worst general election candidates since Barry Goldwater. Of the two Cruz is the bigger threat (and the likely nominee) because he isn’t well known. But the GOP will close ranks behind any their candidates, as will the DEMS.
The 1972 Democratic Party convention could be added to this list. I detect a pattern there.
Perhaps the challenges the Party has experienced since 1980 are not as simple as many want to claim. It’s not just money which ails us.