Now that New York’s primaries are over, things are about to heat up in my home state of Pennsylvania, which will also host the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. For the Republicans, the state is going to be a hot topic for the simple reason that its 54 Republican delegates will go to Cleveland for their convention unbound to any candidate. Instead, they will be informed be the preferences of the people who elected them.
The reason this matters (or could matter, more accurately) is spelled out by #NeverTrump leader Rich “Starbursts” Lowry in the National Review. Actually, he’s citing University of Georgia political science Professor Josh Putnam.
Post-NY update on the percentage of remaining bound delegates active candidates need to get to 1237. pic.twitter.com/CWLItR7GrK
— Josh Putnam (@FHQ) April 20, 2016
In other words, if you refuse to give Donald Trump credit for winning any of those 54 delegates from Pennsylvania regardless of what the voters do at the polls next Tuesday, and you also subtract those three automatic delegates from West Virginia, then Trump needs a very high 63.53% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic number before arriving in Cleveland.
And that could give the Republican National Committee heartburn, because until a candidate can demonstrate that they’ve reached a majority of the delegates, it’s not clear that they can hand over control of or planning for the convention schedule. Who gets to speak? When do they get to speak? What kind of videos will they show? What kind of music will they play? What’s the theme?
Trump wants a big, splashy show-bizzy convention that will be fabulous. But he may have to settle for Reince Priebus’s sense of style and party-planning.
Of course, Trump is not going to take this lying down. If he doesn’t win that 63.53% of the remaining delegates but crushes with the voters in Pennsylvania, he’s going to demand the keys to the convention and threaten to crush anyone who screws him.
And that’ll be hard to resist because Trump is likely to prevail once those Pennsylvania delegates actually cast their votes. He’ll have the nomination and a crappy convention (by his estimation) to sell it to the American people.
That’s when he’ll say, “Hey, Reince, you’re fired!”
But Rich Lowry and the #NeverTrump folks don’t care, and Mitch McConnell is still holding out hope for a brokered convention.
Good times.
They’ll bend the rules, shut out Trump, and nominate Kasich. Watch!
And if they don’t, you’ll buy me a cake, right?
I would like a chocolate cake with chocolate butter cream frosting.
You should enjoy the circus while it’s in town. Greatest show on earth.
You are having your 10 million dollar senatorial primary, too. Very expensive to get that fracking lady installed.
More complicated than that:
Yeah, but now we know the methane leaks from fracking make it not so very green at all. She does have a history of being in that revolving door between industry and regulatory supervision that many are so critical of.
But she is the obvious choice of the DNC. IS this the fourth senate primary they have weighed in on? How did that work for them last time?
Yeah, she does.
And Sestak has essentially the exact same position (I guess we should check with Sestak each day to see when it’s changed) as she does.
But he’s not endorsed by the LCV.
See why just yelling ‘fracking’ at her isn’t very helpful?
Well, when she had the responsibility and power to enact regulations, she punted, no?
He never had that position.
She served Rendell. You are familiar with Rendell, no?
Look, you can oppose her over her cozy relationship with the energy industry, but her record is mixed which is why she’s endorsed by environmental groups over Sestak.
I don’t think just yelling ‘fracking’ at her is informative or even fair, given her main opponent’s position on fracking.
Oh, yeah, I am familiar with Rendell.
Curious, some of those LCV chapters have been accused of greenwashing–the NY chapter in particular. It is not uncommon for industry to co-opt environmental groups. Look at the revolt it took to clean up Sierra Club. Your local chapter DID endorse Rendell, it seems. How are other enviro groups sorting out in this primary?
You have time to blog about this race? Seems pretty important, considering how vulnerable the ClubforGrowther ought to be.
I have had no contact from the Sestak campaign but a steady rain of McGinty emails.
The McGinty endorsement by the envirogroups is nice to know, but any electability insights? It seem significant that Sestak only lost by a small margin in 2010…
OT:The title is enough and made me LOL
……………………………
Warren Unimpressed With `Sacrifices’ Cruz Has Made For 2016 Run: `Boo Hoo’
ByALLEGRA KIRKLANDPublishedAPRIL 20, 2016, 10:01 AM EDT
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) argued in a Tuesday night tweetstorm that the “sacrifices” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) says he has made during his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination pale in comparison to those made by American workers.
“Are you kidding me?” Warren wrote. “We’re supposed to pity you because trying to be the leader of the free world is hard?! 2 words: Boo hoo.”
The Massachusetts senator’s impassioned response came after Cruz sent a campaign email on Monday listing the stresses of the campaign trail. Describing “constant attacks” from the “liberal media,” a lack of family and personal time, and months with little sleep, Cruz said he was proud to make these “steep” sacrifices for his supporters.
Warren was unmoved, firing off a series of tweets about the lack of personal time experienced by Americans working multiple minimum-wage jobs as well as the “constant attacks” faced by immigrants, Muslims and women by GOP candidates like Cruz.
As of Wednesday morning, the Texas senator had not responded.
Lordy, that was a slow, low pitch. And she punished it well.
Well, here’s what I think will happen. If it plays out like you outlined, after all the pearl clutching and hand wringing is done, after John McCain collapses in exhaustion from his marathon whining sessions, after Reince has soiled all the diapers he has on hand, the GOP will cave. They will cave 100% and turn the keys to the asylum over to Donald Trump and his minions he has enlisted from all the fringe areas of the right wing swamp. And the Party will be nothing more than props for Trump’s egomaniacal performance art that will be GOP Convention.
To steal a line from The Pond’s noted musician…….
Bet on it!!!….
Later.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
I’m still not of the belief that if Trump has the most delegates going into the convention, that they’ll steal it from him. I just haven’t accepted it yet.
This comes from before NY, but Sam Wang is reasonably confident in an outright Trump majority:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/09/current-polls-favor-a-trump-delegate-majority/
Trump took 89 delegates in NY, with three outstanding. That actually outperforms his “mode” outcome in Wang’s pre-NY analysis:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/18/gop-update-pre-new-york/
Looking at the table in the second link, I think Indiana is the last stand for the anti-Trump coalition. If he wins there, he can win the nomination even without the unpledged delegates.
Trump’s problem is that he wins big in states where there aren’t any Republicans.