Well, the results from the New York primary are in, and it’s safe to say that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. I’m not going to make excuses for the Sanders’ campaign. They lost a state in which they desperately needed a Michigan style upset to remain relevant. Whatever happens going forward with the movement that made Bernie Sanders their symbolic leader is impossible for me to predict. Martin already has a post up that analyses where the progressive alliance that supported Sanders’ candidacy this election season goes from here, and he has examined those possibilities far more effectively than I could hope to do.
In light of Trump’s overwhelming victory last night, it seems apparent that he will be the Republican challenger to Clinton. And I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that means Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States come Inauguration Day, 2017. Yeah, I’m not taking much of a risk there. Regardless of the strengths and weaknesses of Hillary as a candidate, the Donald out trumps her in the flaws category by a very large margin.
But that is the end of my predictions for this election cycle (I know, famous last words). However, I am honestly interested in learning what the Frog Pond readership here think will happen with respect to Hillary Clinton, both in the immediate future, and also looking ahead to the next four years when she will be the first female President to sit in the Oval Office.
So, please, let me know your thoughts regarding the following:
1. What effect on down ticket races will the Clinton have, especially with regards to Democratic hopes to regain a majority in the Senate?
To be honest, this may be as much a matter of the Trump effect as anything that Hillary brings to the table, but regarding the contingent of anti-Trump voters (and I expect a lot of them), what will happen when they look beyond the Presidential candidates to the Senate and House races? Will Clinton seal the deal with those folks to get them to vote Democratic in other races, or will the votes she receives from the “Anyone But Trump” brigade be limited to a vote for her and her alone?
2. What will young and independent voters do?
I, frankly, have little clue, despite the “Bernie or Bust” types one hears about. We do know that President Obama turned out large numbers of young and independent voters in both 2008 and 2012. Clinton has done less well during the primaries with younger voters, and, in open primaries she has not fared as well with independents, either. Will they turn out for her in the Fall or not?
3. What will be Clinton’s major domestic policy focus during her first two years in office?
Financial reform? Health Care reform, i.e., improvements to the ACA? Reform the current justice system that has resulted in the US having the largest prison population on earth? Immigration reform? Upgrading our failing infrastructure (electric grid, roads, telecommunication advances, etc.). Climate change? Income inequality? Passage of trade agreements such as the TPP? Something else?
4. What do you foresee as the biggest challenges she will face in foreign policy?
The list here is almost endless, but let’s start with the Middle East. How will her administration approach Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two major powers in the region? What about the ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan? What will she do in partnership with the EU to address the horrific refugee crisis. Will her foreign policy be more or less hawkish than the Obama administration regarding terrorism and the use of military force around the globe? And what about relations with Russia and China?
As they saying goes, I am curious.
