First of all the worlds economy looks as bad in March 2016, as the US was in March 2008.
Europe is quite a mess.
Greece hasn’t been solved just dragged along with short term bailouts that don’t seem to solve the underlying problem, which is simply they CANNOT pay off what they owe.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/21/greek-talks-with-lenders-fraught-as-fears-grow-of-defau
lt
Right after solving the unsolvable in Greece, the Eurozone needs to recreate the magic in Italy
http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/03/will-italian-banks-spark-another-financial-crisis/
why is the problems in Italy worse;
While Greece holds the top spot in the EU for the worst debt-to-GDP ratio, Italy comes in second place with a debt-to-GDP ratio greater than 132% according to Eurostat.
So what makes Italy so much worse? While Greece has more than once brought the global financial markets to the brink, it is only the 44th largest economy in the world. Italy represents the 8th largest economy in the world.
Then Spain, and Portugal need fixing because unless we remain in a negative interest rate quantitative easing position for a very long time their weak recoveries are as doomed as Carly Fiorina’s campaign was.
http://fortune.com/2015/05/11/spain-economic-recovery/
That is before the Brexit vote in England in June;
Regarding the U.K. vote over staying in the EU, the IMF said that a decision to quit the bloc would pose “major challenges” and could do “severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships.”
On top of all this the European central Bank has started to use negative interest rates;
http://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgans-david-kelly-why-nirp-is-harmful-1458151003
Which is a tacit admission the crash of 2008 hasn’t been successfully unwound.
Unmentioned is the migration crisis which is also tearing the EU apart, and just might have an unexpected result upon it’s economy;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/the-trucker-s-nightmare-that-could-flatten-europe-
s-economy
Every little bit that hurts adds up, eventually it all comes crashing down.
South America is a dismal mess with the crash of the Brazilian economy combined with the current impeachment of the president/corruption scandals
http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/04/investor-uncertainty-for-brazil/
this certainly ain’t helping;
Operation Car Wash
https:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Car_Wash
The other oil major in South America is an ongoing disaster, Venezula.
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11832
Their problem can simply be explained by the price of oil, as 93% of their exports are from oil. So like many oil exporting countries in the middle east, the crash in oil prices means a crash in their economies.
Japan is sinking into recession
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/01/how-to-fix-the-japanese-economy-according-to-the-godf
ather-of-ab
Like the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan is trying to use negative interest rates to prop up their economy
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/09/nirp-kills-off-all-money-market-funds-in-japan/
Doesn’t seem to be working any better then their years of zero interest rates did.
This leaves China, a country which is trying to uphold it’s struggling economy by ever larger amounts of debt. The recent crisis in the stock markets around the world center around whether china is going to keep growing even slower, or have to accept a contraction to re-balance their economy from an exporting one to consumer demand economy. Their solution ever larger amounts of debt, good thing the government controls the banks and they have all those US treasuries if they need them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-20/soros-says-china-s-debt-fueled-economy-resembles-u
-s-in-2007-08
They are no more immune the economic cycles in 2016-2017 then we were in 2007-2008. Ever increasing of unpayable debt eventually ends up sinking those who hold it when the merry go round stops.
The problem is if, or better yet when China contracts, the rest of the planet sinks into a return to the recession none have actually unwound from.
Places like Australia, which is experiencing a housing bubble of its very own right now;
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/australia-bubble/
I mean it’s like they were blind deaf and dumb all through out 2008 to the present, this rerun can’t end much better than the original did.
Low low commodity prices and very low interest rates do have their unpleasant side effects, which seem to be breaking out all over the planet.
All this while in the USA where people who do not live in the upper 10% are very insecure about the economic prospects, and many still below where they were in 2008 economically.
Some have a very unpleasant surprise coming;
Don’t expect them to be the last to do that.
Even some of Hillary’s big moneyed friends aren’t immune;
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldmansachs-results-idUSKCN0XG1EV
Debt here is a bit high;
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-companies-toxic-debt-crisis-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
Not exactly the signs of a healthy economy.
If it crashes before the election, like in 2008, I see her losing, cause president Obama would get the blame, Ans she is trying for his third term.
After the election how does she deal with it?
Because it is coming, don’t know which of the above is the match, but it all is tinder. Almost certainly before 2020, no modern growth cycle with this many problems has gone for four years with out some sort of resolution.
She’d better be ready, and make sure she puts the middle class ahead of Wall Street this time, or else she’s a one term president. Just like Herbert Hoover was.
BTW notice I haven’t mentioned the middle east getting worse at all, that is one of those unknown unknowns, that wouldn’t help the worlds economy much.
Nor have I mentioned Russia either in an economic sense, (not good unless you’re one of Putin’s cronies) or foreign policy wise.
