Perhaps as many state polls in one day as there have been since the start of the election.
I think it is fair to say only 1 was good for Clinton.
Quinippiac:
OH tied, PA Trump +2, Fl Trump +3
Marist
PA Clinton +9, OH tied, Iowa Clinton +3
Marquette
Wisconsin, Clinton +4
Marist National
Clinton +3
YouGov National
Clinton +2
Monmouth
Nevada, Clinton +4, Iowa Trump +2, CO Clinton +9
Harper
Co Clinton +9
JMC
Florida Trump+5
Gravis
Florida Trump +4
I compare polls by taking the swing from the prior election, and see how they stack up:
Quinippiac, -2.66 (Implies Clinton +1.2) from ’12
Marist, -2.89 (implies Clinton +.9 from ’12)
Marquette, -2.94 (implies Clinton lead of .8)
Monmouth, +.84 (implies Clinton lead of 4.6)
So the state polls actually agree with other, and with the Marist National poll.
Clinton still probably wins with these numbers, but these are pretty bad.
It’s funny, the liberal blogs are all silent on them. When Loras came out some rushed to show Clinton was going to blow Trump out, and that Grassley was in trouble. Every poll since then indicates that poll was an outlier, but no one is rushing out to correct the record either.
It’s like the end of Animal Farm. The bloggers rose in part because they called bullshit on cherry picking polling. But now they are as guilty as anyone.
Since I wrote this:
Fox News
VA +7, CO +10 (Implied National Lead 7.7)
CBS National: Clinton 40, Trump 40
Morning Consult 50 state survey
Shows IA tied, OH, PA and FL within a point. Clinton leading in GA, Trump in Maine (yea right). But they too show leads for Clinton in VA (4) and CO (7). They show a close race, with a Clinton advantage in the EC.
Big picture: basically a race that has closed, but one with emerging Clinton leads in VA and CO – which are quite important. If she takes those two and wins PA, it is hard for Trump to put 270 together.
But this race has closed – frankly it is closer than I thought it would get.
New this morning:
Marist:
CO Cl+8, VA Cl +9, Fl Cl +7, NC Cl +6
The intuition is a break in patter from 2012 and 2008, with states with increasing minority populations trending Democratic, and those without trending GOP. Thus PA is close and Oh is close, but VA and CO are not.
I don’t buy the Florida number, nor the NC one.
