What pushed the putsch against Erdogan and what next? | Gulf News |
He weathered anti-government protests that lasted for months in 2013. He escaped the flames that engulfed some of his ministers in a corruption investigation nearly three years ago.
And now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has survived a military coup – a boast many of his predecessors ousted in previous army takeovers cannot share.
– What prompted the coup? –
In recent years, critics, foreign governments and Turkish citizens have expressed concerns about a steady decline into authoritarianism under Erdogan.
According to Aykan Erdemir, senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, the coup was a result of many factors including the military’s fear of the new system.
He explained that the reasons for the coup included “one of the latest developments (that) has been the bill redesigning the high courts as well as Erdogan’s refusal to be impartial”.
– Why did the coup fail? –
For Sinan Ulgen, director of the Edam think tank and visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, this was not a coup by the full army as in previous cases, but undertaken by a clique who themselves held the top general hostage.
“This was beyond the chain of command – a relatively small group in the army, who even hijacked the military top brass. It was not an operation designed by the army and it showed. Without the full support of the army, they lacked the assets and capabilities.”
Erdemir said the era of successful coups – as in 1960, 1971 and 1980 – is over with the public largely hostile to the prospect. This time the country put on more of a show of solidarity, with even the three opposition parties in parliament swiftly condemning the attempted putsch.
Political parties do not have “fond memories” of the previous coup d’etats given their bitter experiences under military rulers, said Erdemir.
Ulgen added: “When people realised it did not have backing of the army, it was easier to be against the coup.”
Indeed the sheer odds stacked against the coup spawned conspiracy theories with the hashtag #Darbedegiltiyatro (It’s not a coup it’s theatre) trending on Twitter.
Natalie Martin, politics and international relations lecturer at Nottingham Trent University in Britain, said it appeared “almost meant to fail”, something which created suspicions. “It is entirely possible it’s a false flag coup,” she said.
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[UPDATE1:] Aviation Report: Night of the Coup
It was reported that coup supporting aircraft and helicopters opened fire at:
- Police Special Operations Forces headquarters at Golbasi (bombed by F-16. 47 policemen killed)
- Police Aviation Division headquarters at Golbasi
- Turkish Grand National Assembly building (TBMM)
- Turkish Police general headquarters
- MIT (national intelligence organization) headquarters at Yenimahalle
- TurkSAT (state satellite operator) headquarters at Golbasi
- Presidental Palace at Bestepe
For a few hours, coup F-16s flew over Ankara at very high speeds, often breaking the sound barrier at very low altitudes, releasing flares.
It was reported also that F-16s from both sides entered dogfight over Ankara and Istanbul, however no aircraft has been shot down according to the reports obtained thus far. Interestingly, one of the coup plotters aboard a “rebel” F-16 was the pilot who shot down the Russian Su-24 Fencer that had violated the Turkish airspace back in November 2015.
F-16s from Dalaman, Erzurum and Balikesir took off to intercept coup F-16s that according to the reports were as many as 6.
Merzifon 5MJB, which is one of the closest MJB’s to Ankara was at renovation and closed. All its fighters were temporarily based in Erzurum.
Meanwhile, “Asena 02” left Ankara and climbed to max operational altitude, circling over Kastamonu. Asena 03 took over its role of supporting coup F-16s. A couple of arriving F-16s were directed to Asena 02 to shoot it down, but did not do so probably due to the fact that it was flying over residential areas.
At least one AH-1 Cobra, probably an AH-1W type opened fire with its 20mm gun to protesting crowd and TBMM. This helicopter or another one repotedly opened fire at TurkSAT (State satellite operator) headquarters at Golbasi. This helicopter was reportedly shot down by a loyalist F-16.
A S-70A opened fire at the front gates of MIT campus. Reportedly tried to insert commandos to take over the facility and kidnap Hakan Fidan, head of the service. This helicopter is reportedly shot down (not confirmed).
One or two Air Force AS532 CSAR helicopters raided a wedding ceremony of a high rank general in Istanbul which was attended by many generals. CSAR commandos kidnapped them.
8 cargo aircraft (C-160 and A400M included – one using callsign “Esem 26” was in the air when the takeover unfolded) took off from Kayseri and landed at Malatya 7MJB. They were full of weapons to be used by coup.
Coup F-16s searched for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plane, TC-ATA around Istanbul to shoot it down. According to some media reports TuAF loyalist F-16s had the plane in their sights: it’s unclear whether they had a real lock-on, rather that they probably were searching the sky for the Gulfstream IV.
H/T to Arda Mevlutoglu for widely contributing to this post. Additional info from @CivMilAir and @Avischarf
