First decent poll since the end of the Dem convention, basically shows the conventions cancelling each other out. Which is how it usually is.
Clinton saw an uptick in her favorable rating to 45-51 -a significant improvement.
Clinton leads the two was 50-45, and the three way 46-41
I have longed believed this is a 10-12 point race in the end. I got into a pretty good argument with Ed Goes at the realclearpolitics forum in Philadelphia about it.
There are two groups that haven’t come home: non-trump voting evangelicals and Sanders supporting young people. Ed says these groups are about the same size, and NEITHER is likely to come home. He was nice about it – and I don’t think he is voting for Trump.
He has better access to data than I have.
The gap to focus on is under 30. Note:
Obama 67-31
Clinton 51-34, 15% undecided
In all other age groups, the undecided is below 5. What is out is young, and would vote for Obama. The convention did not close the deal with that group.
Here is PPP on this:
“It’s also important to note that most
of the remaining undecided pool is very
Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they’d
rather have him as President than Trum
p by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up
voting for Clinton and Trump by those prop
ortions, it would push Clinton’s lead
up from 5 points to 8. But they don’t li
ke Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
(a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these fo
lks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters,
and even after the successful convention this
week they’re still not sold on Clinton
yet. She and her surrogates will have to
keep working to try to win those folks
over and if they can the election enters landslide territory”
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_7302016.pdf