An excerpt from something I posted at BleedingHeartland:
“In my post two weeks ago I made the following observations:
In 11 of the last 12 elections the candidate leading after the last convention has won the popular vote.
Only one of 11 candidates who led by more than 5 points after their convention lost (Dukakis in ’88).
Clinton as of this moment in the post-convention polling leads by about 7 points. No candidate since 1952 (16 straight elections) has lost a lead that large at this point in the cycle. In 1948 polling was sparse, but there was one poll showing Truman trailing by 6 in October.
– See more at: http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/08/04/we-now-know-who-the-next-president-will-likely-be-but/#s
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