I have made a variety of arguments about this presidential election, some from the fall or spring, some going back two or more years.
Among them, that Hillary Clinton was so popular with Democrats and the Democratic power structure that she could not be denied the nomination.
That Hillary Clinton was capable of (although by no means certain to) win a Goldwater/McGovern-like landslide by appealing to elements of her husband’s winning coalition without surrendering much of Obama’s winning coalition.
That Democrats would grumble, but they would ultimately rally behind her in roughly the same numbers as they did for Obama. And that black voters would mobilize to preserve Obama’s legacy.
That the Republican Party was hopelessly fractured and dysfunctional, and incapable of nominating a viable candidate or rallying behind a contentious one.
These weren’t predictions based on what I wanted to be true. They were my observations as an analyst.
They meant that I didn’t see a primary challenge to Clinton as an actual threat, but as more of a lobbying campaign. In Sanders’ case, it was a lobbying effort I supported so long as it didn’t take itself too seriously and raise false hopes, cause needless division, or advance meritless conspiracy theories.
They meant that I simply did not believe anyone who said that Clinton was too unpopular to win, or to possibly win in epic fashion.
They meant that I did not agree that this or that constituency of the Democratic Party would sit out the election if Clinton were nominated.
They meant that I knew that the center-right was ripe for the picking and that Clinton was positioned very well to fill up bushel after bushel of soft Republicans.
People who wanted the party to move left ideologically had my sympathy and even my agreement up to a point. But I never thought a narrow victory based on more left-wing rhetoric and promises would yield as much progressive change as a landslide caused by the utter collapse of the Republican Party. And, in any case, the Republicans were in desperate need of a thorough beating, since modest beatings had taught them all the wrong lessons. And, they’d earned it and deserved it, and ought to get it.
It’s too early to say I was right about a lot of this. I’d just invite you to peruse a few headlines this morning and decide for yourself whether you’ve gotten better predictive advice from other sources.