The NYT:
When a handful of liberal advocacy organizations convened a series of focus groups with young black voters last month, the assessments of Donald J. Trump were predictably unsparing.
But when the participants were asked about Hillary Clinton, their appraisals were just as blunt and nearly as biting.
“What am I supposed to do if I don’t like him and I don’t trust her?” a millennial black woman in Ohio asked. “Choose between being stabbed and being shot? No way!”
This type of story used to be the mainstay of political reporting. Anecdotal, based on interviews that may or may not be representative.
Certainly it is true that Sanders broke even with African Americans under 30. Beyond that it is hard to know how true it is. The cross-tabs in polling are very small. Moreover polling has tended to understand Democratic Performance among African Americans. It is clear that in some types of polling (Robo-pollsters) people lie about their race.
The article suggests, and I think this is right, that it isn’t an issue of percentage but margin, which in turn is dependent.
But without real data this is all guesswork.
How underwater will she be the first month in office? After she has announced her cabinet and confirmed what we expect? I cannot imagine.
Did you notice the Vox piece today? Interesing and scary for 2018, for sure.
This study shows American federalism is a total joke
Voting for state legislators is dominated by feelings about the president.
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/5/12712932/american-state-government-federalism?utm_campaign=vox&utm_c
ontent=article%3Abottom&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
The study: National Forces in State Legislative Elections
http://m.ann.sagepub.com/content/667/1/207.full.pdf
So in this election, it’s a wash?
she has to get some bounce.
My worry is when we have a recession, and we are do for one.
I don’t think she has the floor Obama had.
Seriously, Trump is such a lead balloon that HRC can win with no bounce.
Off the top of my head, I’d agree that HRC’s floor is lower than Obama’s because she isn’t walking into a win with enthusiastic support among younger voters.
GWB weathered the recession he inherited from WJC just fine. Of course, we spent trillions of dollars waging war to overcome that recession. Expect the next administration to follow what the past few have done. Only two came up short after four years — Carter and GHWB. But that’s the luck of the draw, and I see no reason to bother worrying about luck.
unfortunate because with the internet ppl could be informed. something for DFA and the Sanders groups to take on. it will require lots of door to door
Remember back when people though TV would make everyone so much more educated. Sort of the reverse because TV is audience-passive and education isn’t acquired through passivity.
I had get hopes for information acquisition with the internet. At least initially, engagement by users was more active. Doesn’t seem to be working. My first clue was that the most popular stuff on the internet was porn and games. That reduced the amount of time people would spend getting important information. Then chats, likes, pooties took up time. The garbage on-line proliferated faster than the quality information did and when people lack research sophistication and critical thinking skills information overload leaded to be less well informed.
I’m no longer hopeful.
well, that was my point. obviously it’s not happening by itself, but door to door information campaign will work, working on the local level – booths at street fairs, etc. it’s a lot of work and would/ will involve in person conversation. nevertheless, informed electorate is part of democracy, must be done. the thing is due to internet/ social media people can stay informed and communicate about local matters
I think that shift in Web content occurred about the time that the IT guy at work presented me with a new computer featuring a peculiar attachment called a “mouse”. I was quite comfortable typing on the command line and didn’t need or want that silly device, thank you very much.
Initially the internet was for information exchange between federal labs. That’s even the origin of e-mail. When it got wider public use there was all sorts of technical and economic data available, mainly, but not exclusively, from the federal government. For instance the RFC’s that specify the base protocols were readily available. I have no idea where you can find them now.
The internet expanded AND degenerated when it became a selling tool. Valuable content, including technical content, disappeared behind paywalls. Five years ago AMD’s website http://www.amd.com was full of technical details, specifications and software for AMD’s microprocessors. You just can’t find the simplest thing, like Thermal Design Power vs clock frequency anymore. It’s become a selling tool only, full of hype but short on data.
Google and Bing (Microsoft) accept money to place search results. God only knows what Facebook does with it’s volumes of data on it’s subscribers (besides give them to the NSA).
“A sad reality: presidential approval ratings drive state legislature elections”
I think this is probably a case of confusing correlation with causation. Sure, people’s opinions about the federal government matter; it would be pretty surprising if not. But is the claim here that local issues are irrelevant? That study described in the Vox article did nothing at all to try to tease apart all the factors.
I LINKED the actual study Vox discusses.
“Fewer than 20 percent of voters can identify their state legislator, according to a Vanderbilt study published in 2013.” I’m amazed it’s that high. I have found that most people cannot name their Congressman, although most know at least one Senator’s name.
Their thesis that Presidential popularity drives state voting belies the first paragraph that says Wisconsin went for Obama while being overwhelmingly Republican. Sounds to me more that many people disliked Romney, possibly for religious reasons.
At least half of people do distinguish between state taxes and federal taxes. Still, many, who I think should be disqualified from voting, think Washington determines local property taxes or even that the President can set taxes all by himself.
I rely heavily on partisan ID in local races because I often do not know anything about the candidates.
I think most people do. That’s how neoliberals took over bottom up.
Markos and booman will applaud her “pragmatism” and explain how this is really progressive government. Watch.
” Moreover polling has tended to understand Democratic Performance among African Americans.”
I don’t understand that sentence unless you intended some other word than “understand”. Understate?