This ridiculous election season would not be complete without the threat of another government shutdown, and how much money would you be willing to risk betting on Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan to find a way to pass a continuing resolution that either the majority of their own caucus would support or that relies (again) on mostly Democratic votes?
Conservatives want to pass a six-month CR that would kick the larger budget fight into next year with a new president and Congress in place. They argue that coming back after the election to complete the annual budget work during a “lame-duck” session will result in a massive legislative package that hikes spending and contains policies sought by special interests.
But Democrats and some moderate Republicans want to finish the annual budget work later this year after the election.
Both sides are digging in for a fight.
“We are not going to agree to a long-term [continuing resolution],” Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) told reporters Thursday — his comments coming with the implicit threat of a filibuster against any deal Democrats don’t support. “We are not doing anything into next year. Republicans should be aware of that right now.”
The potential stalemate over spending is a headache for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) who would like to avoid any whiff of a shutdown threat just weeks before the election.
I’ve written about this a lot over the second Obama term in office, but a real governing party does not need to get most of the votes for its appropriations from the opposition, and a normal opposition party would never agree to this arrangement where they have virtually no say on the spending committees but are expected to get the appropriations passed.
The true congressional majority, the actual power, comes from the coalition (whether bipartisan or otherwise) that can actually pass the spending bills. John Boehner burned himself out by going back to the Democratic well for votes too many times, but he couldn’t keep the government open any other way. But, as I’ve often said, the Democrats don’t like this arrangement anymore than the Freedom Caucus, and they don’t need to bail the Republicans out this time because they’re not worried about protecting a president who is leaving anyway. If Boehner and McConnell want to buck them on the length of the continuing resolution, the Dems are free to refuse to provide any votes and watch the GOP twist in the wind on their inability to unite and govern as a party.
It will be a perfect object lesson on why the Republicans deserve to lose their majorities.
The fact that many Americans are hurt by government shutdowns makes me reluctant to support this strategy. But you are right to point out that Americans have not been made to understand which Congressional Caucuses are primarily responsible for our extremely dysfunctional Congress, and that not enough Americans understand which Party is responsible.
Short answer?
More than likely.
Gotta keep that leaky ol’ PermaGov boat afloat any which way possible, don’tcha know. There’s gold in them thar timbers!!!
Bet on it.
Sigh…
AG
So Boo, as I understand it, you’re suggesting that through inaction the Dems should let the government shut down, at least for while, because it’s a useful object lesson?
Isn’t that pretty much exactly the argument the Freedom (sic) Caucus loons make?
Not saying you’re wrong. But you can understand how a lot of people react by blaming both parties equally and a pox on all of them and so on. And how the loons can calculate, correctly, that universal disgust with Washington works to their advantage.
So how, politically, do you get around that conundrum? Because going into a presidential election where your candidate’s unfavorability ratings are the second-highest in history, exceeded (for now) only by her opponent, catering to people’s cynicism with everyone doesn’t seem like a good short- or long-term strategy, either politically or for, you know, not screwing all the people who rely on the government operating.
The object lesson you see isn’t the one a lot of other people will see. Hence the rise of a bomb-thrower like Trump. You really wanna encourage an “it can’t be any worse’ response when a smarter version of him comes along next time?
They shut down the government before to get what they wanted. So we have created a problem. We either end it or continue to deal with repeated threats. Maybe next time they will want to cut into SSMM or some such program. What then? They are doing this just bc they are Braindead. It needs to stop.
I see this sort of response a lot in progressive circles. If they’re so braindead, how is it that they’ve gotten Democrats tied up in knots trying to figure out how best to respond?
There’s a huge difference between braindead and cynical. Ultimately, the only long-term way to stop this lunacy lies with voters, and sneering at these nihilists – and by extension, the people who voted for them – is not an effective way to change voters’ allegiances.
Beyond all the procedural games, that’s the conundrum. And you don’t win that or any other argument by calling your opponents names, no matter how richly they deserve it.
Make up your mind. Either voters have to punish Blue Dogs or they always have to vote (D) because …
Dems need to go along with CR only if they make it clear that this is the only way Americans can have a functioning government as the GOP is unable to propose a budget and vote on it. When was the last time the GOP actually propose a conservative budget and voted?
And exactly how would Democrats make anything clear to the American people in this media environment?
Your analysis of the failure in the House is of course exactly the point, but the people do not know that Mr. Blue Eyes has failed.
and
are related. Nobody will actually see the “perfect object lesson” because the Villagers won’t report it that way. It’ll be nothing but “both sides do it” framing.
The roles of the players are so scripted in this kabuki theater that Democrats letting it happen will be the same as making it happen.
That framing has to do with ideology. Shutting the government down stops spending, or so the script goes.
Democrats doing that goes against their values. Republicans doing that are delivering for the voters.
It’s an evil game that Democratic cowardice walked into a decade ago. Now it’s too late to deal with it.
Unless you somehow get an honest press that tells pretty graphically what is at stake besides political gamesmanship.
You would almost think democrats are afraid, very afraid to open their mouths in fear of being proven wrong. Maybe that is also what is the matter with Clinton. This shit has got to stop. Stomping your feet when you can’t get what you want cannot be allowed.
The defeat of the Blue Dogs has been read by Democrats as not being centrist enough. More often, its just the shucking of the sheep’s clothing and hiring a straightforward fox.
Of course stomping your feet when you can’t get what you want is always allowed–ineffective, but allowed.
What the GOP is doing is much more serious than that. It’s extorting the Democrats to commit ideological suicide or the country gets it.
Who is going to defend your interests, asks Trump of blacks and Hispanics. Is it going to be the Democrats? You see the trap, don’t you?
It’s damn hard to escape with minorities in both Houses and a premium on your side getting something done positively in order to win re-election.
How is it that the smart Democratic consultants in DC have not seen this coming for ten years? My best guess is hubris.
No matter what finally happens, NOTHING is going to happen for 2-4 weeks. The nature of the beast. Right now is the time for posturing, ringing clarion calls for true [fill in the blank] observance and deciding whose going to get it in the neck if a shutdown occurs.
My guess? The D’s insist on some kind of quid pro quo for the D base and give a range of options to Ryan and Co. Maybe an increase on the top rate of income tax, COLA for Social Security, Approval of several federal judges (not necessarily Garland), or any of a plethora of equally good shit.
More pissing, moaning and gnashing of teeth by R leadership, followed by condemnation of the Freedom Caucas will pretty much pin the tail of fault on the elephant.
If the R’s don’t go along with something, the House D leadership (Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn) will most likely let them jump off the cliff.
Also, plenty of chances for Trump to screw it up for the troglodytes.
MOAR POPCORN!!!!!
My guess, Democrats want some kind of quid pro quo from their big donors, probably Wall Street, maybe Hollywood.
I was one of the Federal Government employees who was hurt by the government shutdowns. I was also a low level employee. It took two paychecks to pay my rent in the DC area. The first “furlough” was two days before payday–pay for work already performed. I left the office not knowing if I was going to get paid for that work. This one lasted three weeks. I saved every penny and ate very little. Paid my rent with the measly savings I had. Finally, we were allowed to go to work; and, it had been announced that we would be paid for the time off. Phew! So, that is the real lesson to learn from this. Federal Government employees always get paid whether they work or not. Thus, the economically sound decision is to NOT shut the government down. As an aside, the day we were scheduled to go back to work, the blizzard of 95 came howling in the day before. I told friends that was God telling Congress that he was the one in control. It was another 10 days before we went back to work; but, at least, I could pay my bills.
Bottom line: Why do people think it is a good idea to shut down the government; but, pay the employees any way? It is stupid; but, then, Congress is often the epitome of stupidity.
The last shut down I wondered if I was going to get my retirement pay. I kept the cat food handy in case the shut down was going to impact me again.
obvious all along to anyone with a functional brain and any awareness (which excludes the wingnut perps).
To the wingnuts, it made sense not only to inflict the hardship and uncertainty that they did on your cohort and inflict large costs/losses on the rest of the economy, but also to pay millions (I presume) of fed employees for zero work product for several weeks. To pay you, IOW, for nothing.
Yup, idiotic.
Yup, GOP “sense”.
Lesson to whom?
Plenty of lessons already out there, yet I see no evidence of anybody learning anything.
According to CNN Trump is actually ahead right now.
What makes you think shutting down the government makes any difference at all to these people?