The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey has the president’s approval number at 58%, which is higher than it’s been at any point since mid-summer of 2009. As Philip Bump explains, this is very good news for Hillary Clinton because it’s been historically much easier for a candidate to succeed a popular president of his own party than an unpopular one. I think that’s what we’d all intuitively guess to be the case, but the numbers do back it up.
As of now, the Post/ABC News poll is an outlier, showing somewhat stronger support for Obama than other surveys in the field, but they agree that the president has been rising and that he’s at over fifty percent approval.
Of course, what the actual candidate does matters more than how people feel about the incumbent, and Clinton has been going through a rough patch in her campaign of late. This probably explains why her polls and the president’s seem to be heading in opposite directions and the presidential horserace numbers have narrowed considerably since the conclusion of the two party’s conventions in July.
It’s not unlikely that widespread dissatisfaction with the choice between Trump and Clinton is the main driver of Obama’s improving approval numbers, as people increasingly reward him for looking good by comparison. If that’s the case, Philip Bump may be overstating how much Clinton stands to benefit from Obama’s popularity.
A new wrinkle was introduced into the campaign yesterday, as Clinton was captured on video slumping and needing to be helped into a waiting vehicle. Explanations that she succumbed to the heat at the 9/11 ceremonies in New York have been met with widespread skepticism since it wasn’t oppressively hot in the city yesterday. Her physician’s explanation that she became dehydrated and has pneumonia provides a fuller more comprehensible explanation, but the episode raises questions about her physical fitness and, depending on how it is handled from here, could do more damage to her reputation for candor.
Like it or not, Clinton seemed to be exhausted by the end of her term as Secretary of State, which involved a staggering amount of international travel. Trump surrogates have been trying to raise questions about her health and stamina for weeks, and this gives them the opportunity to argue that they weren’t just engaged in dirty smear politics.
I’m not sure that Trump knows quite how to handle this gift. So far, he seems to want to underplay his advantage, but he’s also using the occasion as an opportunity to release information about his own health, since his prior attempts were so laughable.
Clinton has cancelled a planned trip to California that involved some fundraisers and media appearances, which seems like a sound medical decision but will highlight the health question until she is returned to the campaign trail and performing with her usual vigor.
If she does recover quickly and get back out on the trail, this could largely blow over, but it will not blow over completely.
In fact, the two candidates’ age (Clinton is 68 and Trump is 70) was always going to be a concern for the public. What this episode should prompt is a closer look at both vice-presidential candidates. Given the huge distinctions between the policies and character of Clinton and Trump, as well as the ideological gulf between the Democrats and the Republicans, this election should not be decided by people’s guesses about the relative health of the candidates. But, if you want to speculate on those matters, then the potential replacements for Clinton and Trump should be compared and contrasted.
Some people might like Trump’s bluster and attitude, but how do they feel about the extreme prudish social conservatism of Mike Pence? Would they rather he be president than Tim Kaine?
As for the two top contenders, Trump has always needed some Black Swan series of events to give him a puncher’s chance in this election. He’s undoubtedly thinking that his odds just went way up, and they probably did.
For those who are terrified by the prospect of a Trump presidency but maybe a little unenthusiastic about Clinton, this is a wake-up call. The time for complacency is over.
You wouldn’t say an unconscious person “needed to be helped into” a gurney. You would say they were “placed into” or “lifted into”.
Look at the video.
http://twitter.com/MsBlaireWhite/status/775104241505488896
Whether she was unconscious or unable to command her feet, she was being dragged along the ground into that vehicle. Only the physical support from her minders was keeping her from face-planting onto the curb.
As for “could do more damage to her reputation for candor”, that is again misleading phrasing. Her reputation is for dishonesty – whether you think it justified or not. To pick just the one example that came quickest to hand, two-thirds of those polled by CNN say she is not “honest and trustworthy”.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf
I saw the video.
I also am fairly confident that it’s not a cardiovascular problem because that would be known unless there’s a massive deception going on.
She’s fainted or almost fainted.
Are you going to troll us about it?
Booman–Of course there is massive deception going on. There must be. What other possibility is there? I mean, we are dealing with the Clintons, the Masters of Deceit. That is the default judgment of a large fraction of the commentariat, including on this blog. You should be grateful for the last, because it saves you the trouble of looking at the right wing blogosphere.
Well said. I barely read the comments anymore since the Hillary-hating leftists have taken over this blog(Voice, Marie, Mino, etc.), but like you say, it saves a person from having to read right-wing blogs because the leftists extremists here and the Righties repeat the same anti-Hillary talking points.
I agree. It’s important that we ignore people who are farther to the left than we are.
Not to mention being unable to discern policy differences from personal animus. TINA prevails.
To be fair, I’ve never met a human who can do that!
But I do think that the center/center left’s inability (broadly speaking) to find any value in the farther left is debilitating to the entire left.
Kaine seems to be a more unrepentant neoliberal than HC, if she has really learned from the disaster of those policies. We can’t know at this point. Plus he is squishier perhaps on female body autonomy.
Entering into spirited, honest, good-faith discussions of policies and their outcomes is one thing.
People are not entering into policy discussions when they eagerly and excitedly make poorly supported speculations on Clinton’s health, and when they lay claims that declining to share Friday’s pneumonia diagnosis with the press by Sunday morning, less than 48 hours later, means Hillary is a dishonest person running a bad campaign. These last premises have been moved against her here often, and those often have been expressed with open personal animus.
If Hillary and her campaign had shared with the press Friday evening she had a mild pneumonia and she hadn’t had any visible problems moving forward, they would have been criticized for needlessly bringing major concerns about her health into the discussion. In many areas, Clinton is literally damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t.
It’s a rare day here when Jean-Pierre Faye’s “political horseshoe theory” isn’t on full display. Or once of my favorite anonymous internet quotes: “Politically Correct Activists vs. Piously Correct Activists”
What a handy meme to pull out. Data taken from Europe which HAS a labor left and dated from 1985.
I can think of one overlap between Libertarians and Far Left–our dislike of foreign military great adventures that pauperize the commons and enrich the connected. That probably extends to dislike of militarized police force.
Economic policy? Not on our worst day! Reproduction? A wobbly yes, perhaps. Reducing power of the federal govt? Not even.
Which ones do you imagine?
I agree with regard to cardiovascular problems. But as I’ve said elsewhere, it looked more like a fit than a collapse. I’ll conceded that could be selective broadcasting from ABC, except ABC is very much in the bag for Clinton.
Someone else said it looked like Parkinson’s with which I’m very familar, except her tongue was in her mouth, not sticking out the side which is characteristic of Parkinson’s. It really looked to me like a seizure.
Voice, you’re making my trigger finger twitchy, which would be a real shame after all these years, don’t you think?
Stop trolling or I’ll treat you like a troll.
diagnosis, Dr./Sen. Frist.
As someone who’s never been a big Clinton fan, this episode doesn’t really matter to me. This election to me has been about continuing Obama’s successes, and of course stopping Trump. Frankly guessing about the future health of someone who’s 65+ (Clinton, Trump, Sanders) is a ridiculous exercise — they could keel over tomorrow or live to 90, though given that they all have good health care I’d expect the latter rather than the former.
And as for the enthusiasm gap that is often discussed — maybe it exists, but not to me. If the opponent had been someone less odious than Trump, maybe I wouldn’t be volunteering for Clinton, and maybe I’d be considering voting third party here in California. But not this year. The stakes are too high for me and my family. So I find myself in the surprising position of recruiting new volunteers for Clinton.
Agreed. The only question this raises, to me, is exactly how bad is the Clinton campaign? Is this normal? For a candidate to be diagnosed with pneumonia and not mention it, and try to continue with events until the problem is documented on video. And then to sidestep with ‘heat exhaustion’ until finally admitting, ‘yeah, and pneumonia.’
I seriously don’t know if this is normal for a campaign. I’m trying to think how they could’ve handed it worse, though, and I’m coming up short.
You’ve heard of Josh Marshall’s conception of Trump’s Razor?: Ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts.
I feel like we’re on the verge of Clinton’s Razor: Ascertain the greatest amount of self-inflicted damage possible in any scenario that can be reconciled with cringing defensiveness.
“For a candidate to be diagnosed with pneumonia and not mention it…”
From what I can tell, this is a new diagnosis. Previously the coughing was ascribed to allergies. The campaign announced pneumonia when it was discovered, AFAIK.
I read that campaign said she was diagnosed on Friday.
You’re right, thats what the Times is now saying. Very stupid to try to keep her illness under wraps for two days.
But I very much hope that I’m wrong.
People Magazine is now reporting that pneumonia has been circulating among the campaign staff for two weeks…
Did no one get a diagnosis before this Friday? Why no prophylaxis?
http://www.people.com/article/hillary-clinton-staff-sick-pneumonia
But…can you reliably believe anything that this…or most other campaigns on this level in the current scheme of things…say?
I can’t.
Lying.
It’s the new truthiness.
Later…
AG
This has been giving me flashbacks to my own health ordeal a few years ago. It was the allergies and the fits of incessant coughing, and the repeated bouts with pneumonia. Turns out it was Reactive Airways Syndrome. The coughing fits give it away. And then walking pneumonia on top of that? Part of the package.
Two reactions, then:
I can see how she’d keep driving herself forward, especially when it was not knocking her out for a whole day or anything. She’s not giving up over a little illness, nope.
Also, someone give this woman a pneumonia vaccine, stat! They have that and meds to manage these things. It’s hardly has to be debilitating.
Could be she’s had the vaccination(s) and it simply didn’t work:
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/pneumo/vacc-in-short.htm
I am surprised that no one is thoroughly investigating Trump’s schedule with a fine-tooth comb. There have been rumors of the appearance of having horse-level pain relievers to get him to calm down, but that seemed to be like the Clinton-near-death rumors.
Actuarially, Trump is more at risk on two demographic variables for morbidity and mortality.
I wouldn’t want to try to keep up with either of them.
Some of Obama’s rise in popularity are the people counting the days until he is out of office no doubt.
Digby on Clinton’s health
How about those who are terrified by the prospect of a Clinton presidency but very unenthusiastic about Trump?
The following is a rhetorical question:
How can anybody who is not trolling on a ostensibly Democratic, progressive website, be “terrified” of a Clinton presidency but merely “very unenthusiastic” of a Trump presidency?
Oh yeah, I know, the same people JoeDanWalls alludes to above or as we call em over at Balloon Juice “Our Progressive Betters”.
Oi vey.
Fuck Balloon juice. They became insufferable years ago.
“For those who are terrified by the prospect of a Trump presidency but maybe a little unenthusiastic about Clinton, this is a wake-up call. The time for complacency is over.”
I don’t get why it is this close. My own analysis says it ISN’T that close:
Last 15 day non-partisan state polling average shows Clinton up by 5.7. No question there is some oddity in the polling: Trump is outperforming Romney in the upper midwest and in some deep blue states. Clinton is outperforming Obama in states like AZ, GA, UT and TX. Polling at this time of year always shows that to some extent, but the trend is bigger than in the last 4 cycles.
But the data suggest the lead is larger than the national polling is finding.
In 1984 the only moment Mondale looked like he had a chance. As slate noted:
t”his was bad. Reagan knew it was bad. “As soon as he left the stage,” reports Lou Cannon in President Reagan, “Reagan confessed to [adviser Stu] Spencer that he had flopped.” According to Jack Germond and Jules Witcover, when Mondale left the stage, he confided to an aide that “This guy is gone” — as in mentally not all there.”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/10/when_ronald_reagan_blew_a_presidential_debate_and_dropp
ed_seven_points_in.html
Reagan buried the issue in the next debate, and I suspect Clinton will do the same.
I still think is headed to a larger Clinton win.
This is my own analysis:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IWl01Ik9A2EyaRAgrd0jFBUPMjZS7QCoUYZyhd7C4ns/edit#gid=1134050
562
” Clinton is outperforming Obama in states like AZ, GA, UT and TX” Those were definitely states with lots of anti-black racists, except for UT which is Mormon like Romney. Nothing about policy there. Pure identity politics.
“Trump is outperforming Romney in the upper midwest and in some deep blue states.” Rust Belt. Middle class Progressives just don’t understand. Also, in regard to Wisconsin, and Michigan, Romney as a Mormon was very much regarded as a apostate to the fundamentalist Christians who infest those states.
I continue to be baffled by the bafflement over MI and WI. What about Scott Walker’s dominance over WI democrats do people not get?
Well, good Lord, if strait-laced, abortion-opposing Romney was considered an apostate by fundamentalist Christians in the Rust Belt, what would push them more completely into the camp of the personally immoral Trump?
I can identify a possible answer to that question if it is shown to be true on Election Day, but it’s not one you want to contemplate.
I guess you don’t know any fundamentalists. They don’t think that Mormons are Christians at all.
All the same, how on Earth could fundamentalists consider Trump more godly than Romney?
There’s something missing from this analysis.
I think Mel Brooks and Gene Wilder had it right…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHJbSvidohg
Preparing decades for the job of U.S. President, HRC knew what was expected of her. A full disclosure of medical history comes with the job interview. Why the secrecy supported by the Clintonites? As in real life, it will always backfire and leave the damage with the people, party and the nation. The DNC and especially DWS did the party a disservice with the fraud.
In December 2012, HRC’s medical condition is much more worrisome as it was also covered-up. Poor judgement.
Posted earlier in my breaking news diary –
○ HRC on 9/11 In New York
Believe It or Not … “overheated” as in feverish, when out in the sun (irresponsible with fever) will cause dehydration and fainting spell.
Move on folks, nothing here to see … unless!
○ HRC’s collapse during 2008 primaries due to lack of reaching young voters | The Atlantic |
○ Did Ailing Hillary Clinton Forget Watergate? It’s the Cover-Up That Gets You. | The Forward |
“For most of our nation’s history until Reagan, though, the oldest president ever was William Henry Harrison. He was 68 years and 23 days old when he was sworn in on April 4, 1841. He was also the first president to die in office. After his inauguration he walked from the Capitol back to the White House through a pouring rain, and died 30 days later.
He died of pneumonia.
Pneumonia is no longer the terror that it was in Harrison’s day, but it’s still a serious threat. As recently as the early 20th century it was the lead killer among infectious diseases and the third leading cause of death overall. There was no cure. The mortality rate was 25%. Since the discovery of antibiotics in the 1940s, mortality has dropped to below 1%.
It’s still the eighth leading cause of death, and still the No. 1 deadliest infectious disease, with an annual U.S. toll of about 50,000. For most people, though, it’s no longer considered a life-threatening disease. The main exceptions, the groups most at risk, are persons with compromised immune systems, children under 5 and adults over 65.”
…
“What is alarming is that she learned on Friday that she had an illness that many consider serious, but decided to keep the information to herself. At the end of a week in which Donald Trump managed to close the gap and pull nearly even with her in the polls, she chose to double down on the very behavior that voters find most alienating in her: hiding the truth, prevaricating, pretending all is well when it isn’t.
What’s infuriating is that even after her illness caught up with her on Sunday morning and she was hustled unceremoniously out of the September 11 memorial ceremony, she continued to cover up. For nearly eight hours, from the time she left Ground Zero at 9:30 a.m. until her pneumonia was disclosed at 5:15 p.m., the mystery of her condition dominated the news cycle.”
That 58% poll is almost certainly an outlier. When I saw it I checked and polls taken before and after (that poll was taken Sept. 5-8) all have a 50-52% spread and youre definitely right about improvement.
I’d prefer Pence over Trump. It would be a disaster as Pence is both hard right and a poor executive, but a conventional one. Kaine would be better there.
Well I guess this blew the deplorables thing off the top posts.
Yep. The next new shiny thing…
Billmon:
Hapless fuckups who are prohibitive favorites to win the Presidency for a third straight election, and favorites to regain a Senate majority.
As I mentioned upthread, CNN’s three-ring circus would have been convened yesterday even if the Clinton campaign had revealed her diagnosis Friday evening. It could not have been “…avoided so easily.”