I feel like I have posted this 50 times.
Quinippiac is out with a new poll. Clinton leads 48-43 in a 2 way race, and leads 41-39 in a four way race. The difference is entirely among those under 34:
Two way: Clinton 55, Trump 34
Four way: Clinton 31, Johnson 29, Trump 26, Stein 15
Approval
18-34
Trump 21 positive, 68 negative
Clinton 36 positive, 58 negative
I have longed believe the Johnson and Stein vote will collapse after the debates, and Clinton will get to 10+ as a result.
Another note from polling has cropped up: Trump’s numbers among Hispanics really aren’t that much worse than Romney’s. I exchanged notes with Kyle Klondik of crystal ball, and really the only swing state where it looks like the Hispanic shift from ’12 matters is Florida, where it is worth about 3 points. Every other major state is less than 1.
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09142016_U27xtpb.pdf
Cnn has number suggesting a very real enthusiasm problem for Dems. Trump is up 4 among LV in both FL and OH. Selzer also had Trump up 4 in Ohio. There are A rated pollsters.
You can argue the most important number was PPP’s VA number showing Clinton up 6. Trump cannot win without one of PA, CO or VA. There is no good evidence he has breached that firewall yet.
I think I am denial about how close this is. I do not believe it will last.