I’m enjoying the GOP meltdown as much as anyone, but a brief reminder of why this election matters is warranted. Donald Trump wants to bring back torture.
At least half of the 39 people who went through the C.I.A.’s “enhanced interrogation” program, which included depriving them of sleep, dousing them with ice water, slamming them into walls and locking them in coffin-like boxes, have since shown psychiatric problems, The New York Times found. Some have been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder, paranoia, depression or psychosis.
Hundreds more detainees moved through C.I.A. “black sites” or Guantánamo, where the military inflicted sensory deprivation, isolation, menacing with dogs and other tactics on men who now show serious damage. Nearly all have been released.
We’ll never get real accountability for these crimes, but we sure as hell can avoid electing a man who promises to start this back up again.
The jig is up, emphasis added:
RNC halts Victory project work for Trump – Politico
All Events for Mike Pence Have Been Canceled According to Donald Trump’s Campaign Site – Red State
Trump’s response to Ryan being heckled in his own district:
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2016
[log crackle]
Let the games begin; this debate is going to be a sell-out.
I realize that the GOP’s efforts are to cauterize Trump in an effort to save the House and Senate, but I’m curious if the growing schism between the GOP/Pence and Trump – which is effectively going to make Trump an Independent (ironic since they made him swear that he wouldn’t go 3rd party) would cause Trump supporters to not vote for the GOP down ballot.
My feeling is that 1) Trump is spiteful enough that he would try to hurt the GOP if he was slighted by them (moreso than Clinton who he thinks he can beat head-to-head), and 2) if Trump told his supporters to only vote for him (and no one else on the ballot) then they would.
Trump successfully took over the Republican party by threats to other candidates, both explicit and implied. He’ll try it again, attacking those opposing him (still a fairly small group) to make them kneel before him again. If they refuse, his followers will defeat any of them in close races. It’s going to get ugly for his opposition.
But oh, so lovely for us to watch.
From a safe distance.
Furthermore if they can’t wreck Obama or Clinton I’m guessing Trump’s supporters would accept burning down the GOP itself as a reasonable second prize. Seems to be what is happening.
Yes.
My 5 Stages of Grief theory.
Denial ended with Rmoney. Obviously the establishment exists for itself, and not for the useful idiots.
Strongman Trump represents two stages at once for the Republican base: Bargaining, and Anger.
Bargaining that Trump can Make America Great Again for poor, uneducated whites…and Anger that if he can’t, at least he can burn this fucker to the ground and make it just as bad for everyone else.
I’d be absolutely ecstatic if Strongman Trump accelerated the process and skipped right past Depression (sitting at home binge watching Storage Wars and sitting out elections ) and went straight to Acceptance, by telling his voters to vote for Gary Johnson, or telling his voters to vote for – gasp, ultimate mind fuck – Clinton.
The best thing that could possibly happen would be a Senate with 53+ Democrats, a much friendlier House, and a Republican party unable to even compete for the executive and by extension, judicial branch of the federal government. 2018 could be much, much friendlier to progressive causes in general, and perhaps we could de-gerrymander the Congress by 2020 instead of 2040, as I’d imagine it will take otherwise.
So we will see if this matters.
The single biggest surprise in this cycle has been the willingness of the evangelical right to support Trump. This dates to the primaries.
As of this morning they seem to be staying with him. If they left there is a chance he could be forced from the ticket.
In either case he is done. He was done after the first debate.
The quote that is going to kill him isn’t the open mic stuff, it’s the one about calling his daughter a piece of ass.
If you are any decent father at all words fail.
If you call my daughter that I would punch you in the mouth.
And I am completely serious about that.
Most fathers of daughter’s would have the same reaction.
And thus far this seems not to matter.
From the CBS/YOUGov polling
“Slight majorities in each state, 54 percent in Ohio and 51 percent in Pennsylvania, said the tape did not change their view of Trump, while 44 percent in Ohio and 47 percent in Pennsylvania said it made them think worse of Trump, though most in the latter groups were not supporting him beforehand. There is a gender gap on this: in Pennsylvania, women are more likely than men to say it makes their view of Trump worse, by 53 percent to 42 percent.
Although it is too soon to tell if the tape will change votes outright the initial reaction to it suggests that it will certainly be on voters’ minds in tonight’s debate, and the response among women is notable in context because Trump was already facing deficits among women voters and in particular among women with college degrees, who give higher support to Clinton than they have to past Democratic nominees in those states, bolstering the overall numbers for Clinton.
But for Trump’s supporters in particular, the data suggests there isn’t much impact so far: Ninety-one percent of his backers in Ohio and 90 percent in Pennsylvania say it doesn’t change their view of him. That steadiness among current Trump supporters is in keeping with other polling we’ve seen through the year — in which Trump’s voters conceded their candidate sometimes said controversial things, but his supporters remained with him, often focused on other items like changing Washington or shaking up politics. In this Tracker poll, before the release of the tape, Trump voters said that the idea of “ending political correctness” is one reason they are backing him: Seventy-eight percent of his Seventy-eight percent of his voters say so in Pennsylvania, and 75 percent of his voters say so in Ohio.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/
Trump hates the same people they hate.
That hasn’t changed.
That’s enough.
I think I prefer Sam Wang on this. Less Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
.
Christ, if 10 percent of current Trump supporters end up not voting for him, he’s going to get slaughtered. At the moment, 100% of Trump supporters aren’t close to enough for him to win.
I read those 90-91% numbers.
The New Republic is reporting:
Trump’s Republican Defectors Are Already Trying to Steal the Election From Hillary
If they would really gamble on that, they deserve the Borowitz prognosis:
Republican Party Could Recover as Early as 2096, Experts Say
That looks like a la-la-land fantasy:
Electors in many states are technically and legally free agents. In other states, electors pledge to vote in accordance with the outcome of the election in their state. The SC has never ruled on that question.
However, before the GOP could act to throw Pence into the mix for POTUS via the House, Trump would first have to secure 270 of the normally constructed EC votes. That’s the GOP roadblock. Of course, if Trump did through some miracle accomplish that and faithless GOP electors (only one would be required) threw it to the House, Trump would sue, and it’s anyone’s guess how the SC would rule.
The referred possibility may be that a few redneck states would write in and vote for Pence (or other coordinated candidate) rather than for Trump. Then the 1824 scenario would play out, following the 12th Amendment. The GOP House would cunningly vote for their third placed candidate, even if he will have just a few electors.
If electors can “autonomously” switch, that increases extravagant and statistical possibilities.
Can the voters or electors straightforwardly choose a vice-presidential candidate?
In any case, the GOP has to prevent Hillary getting 270 electors. That is their toughest hurdle. The risk is that they would be called on their utterly non-democratic intention, and they would loose the House immediately, and credibility for ages.
Allowed, but few states count the write-in votes. Best chance would be WY, but that still doesn’t help them stop HRC from getting 270 EC votes. Not to mention that it would require more than half of the WY voters to write-in Pence.
Legally electors are free agents, but electors are chosen (and vetted) by the parties; so, they would only go rogue in the most extraordinary situation. Hypothetically, if Trump had 270 EC votes based on the election count, all of those electors could instead vote for Pence. Or some could vote for Pence and throw it to the House. Therefore, no need for the GOP to mount a write-in campaign for Pence.
Electors cast two ballots: president and VP. Only one of those two votes can be for a candidate from the elector’s state. This is where it could get tricky for the GOP. Who would get the “faithless” electors VP vote? If there were 270 faithless electors, they could choose anyone they want for VP, but less than that it would throw the VP decision to the Senate and only the top two may be considered. One of those two will be Kaine.
Did the GOP suffer in the 2002 midterms after the SC selected GWB? I’d like to think that several decades ago voters would be outraged at obvious subversion of voter intent, but maybe they weren’t all that different from the current electorate that doesn’t seem to mind all that much. And those that do are called whiny losers by whichever team managed to steal the election.
Ray vs Blair
.
I confess to being puzzled at the size of the media and political explosion over the “pussy tape”–it hardly seems a huge extension from the sort of things Der Trumper has vomited out previously, and if anyone had thought he really had “Tremendous!!” respect for women in general (as he has had to say more than a dozen times already) they weren’t following the Trump campaign to date. That he’s an entitled plutocrat male groper is hardly a big surprise.
Der Trumper surely is an absolutely senseless, highly impulsive man so besotted and blinded by his imagined “personal magnetism” and “star power” that he literally will say anything that pops into his head—even (especially?) with a recording device present. Trump the supposed ex-jock and his harmless Locker Room Boasting/Banter, eh? Next we’ll hear these comments were also for “entertainment” purposes. That’s Entertainment!, indeed! Absolutely no common sense, and obviously no moral compass whatsoever. But this really was quite obvious quite some time ago. Perfect presidential timber, ha-ha.
The phony outrage by the Anti-Woman Party is of course risible. After years of proposing (or passing) one draconian obstacle to abortion after another, after endless GOoPer comments downplaying rape and sympathizing with rapists, the Trump pussy tape is supposed to be the deal-breaker for our Oh-So-Chivalrous white male Repubs? THIS is the bridge too far in their War on Women? Forgive me if I’m not persuaded by their pious wailings of “disgust”.
Have we ever seen this level of split in a party 30 days out? It now seems unlikely that Strongman Trump can attain a popular vote victory, and will have to rely on the anti-democratic electoral college to eke out some sort of replay of the Stolen Election of 2000. The electoral college is now the final Repub backstop, they will never reform it, never.
So what’s the proper Dem/HRC strategy vis a vis this unexpected explosion of imagined loathing? Watch the meltdown with plenty of popcorn? Or try to aid in making the meltdown as bad (and fatal) for as many GOoPers as possible? I’m for trying to pour gallons more gasoline on the dumpster fire, and see this as opportunity to place the focus on the horrible Repub party and its endless anti-women policies. Something needs to be done to destroy the real villains in the piece—the appalling Repub Congress, and the Great Satan, the American “conservative” movement.
No more prisoners…no more interrogation… No more torture… Just assassinate them… Blow them to bits. That’s Obama’s way.
Torture is a detail. It is a uniquely disgusting detail, and as such, it is useful, to draw one of the brightest and clearest of lines between the two factions.
But it is risky to call attention to any detail, because when one says “X is the problem”, what is heard is “but for X, there would be no problem”. And that is far from true.