Markos Moulitsas has a post up that discusses the coming civil war in the Republican Party. His take is somewhat different from mine, but he’s identified something that I’ve been hitting on. Paul Ryan is in no way the natural heir to Trump to the lead the party.
Regardless of what Washington DC Republicans might think, the base just doesn’t take Ryan’s side against Trump.
In recent days I’ve written three posts about Trump, Ryan and the future of the GOP.
Paul Ryan’s Speakership Will End
Our Future is Not in Paul Ryan’s Hands
How the GOP Will Split Apart Next Year
Markos focuses less on personalities and leaders and more on factions. The Tea Party (as Kos defines it) is the largest faction at about half of the Republican base. The social conservatives make up about 30% and the “Establishment” that aligns with Paul Ryan constitutes a quarter. He argues that (Koch Brothers aside) the Tea Party faction doesn’t have any money. On the other hand, the Establishment doesn’t have any voters. And the social conservatives are basically defeated and preparing for a long political winter.
There’s a lot of truth to this, but what can we surmise from it?
As I’ve been saying, the most important thing in politics is votes. If Republicans in Congress are going to put themselves at risk of losing a primary if they do what the Establishment wants, most of them are not going to do it. Money plays a big part in winning elections, but it’s even better to avoid having to face a primary at all. And it shouldn’t be forgotten that both Trump and Bernie Sanders raised a ton of money from small donors in this cycle, proving that chasing corporate money isn’t the only way to finance a campaign.
So, what we’re looking at is a party that can’t do Wall Street’s bidding even if it wants to. It can’t make K Street happy. It can’t make the U.S. Chamber of Commerce happy. And it’s not going to be in the White House.
The GOP is kind of useless tool in these circumstances, and it could be headed the way of the California Republican Party. All the action will be on the Democratic side.
I don’t think Trump can launch a real news network. The boycotts of potential advertisers would be crippling enough, but Trump can’t run anything profitably. And now that his creditworthiness has been destroyed in the light of the campaign, he won’t find gullible investors. If Trump is going to stay relevant it will be through lower budget ventures similar to Breitbart. He’ll use those platforms more effectively than Palin did, and he’ll do it almost exclusively to settle scores with Republicans who he feels double-crossed him.
His issues will be crime, trade, immigration and antiestablishmentarian opposition to all cooperation with President Clinton on spending. It should be enough to keep most Republicans in line and grind the government to a halt.
In other words, even after election day, the job of breaking our gridlock and sidelining Trump will not be done. And the bigger half of the GOP will be afraid to get in Trump’s crosshairs.
He won’t need to start a third party because he’ll already effectively control one.
And the traditional Republican monied interests?
They’ll start ignoring the Republicans and working on gaining influence with the Democrats.
That might discomfort a lot of progressives but it’s one of those good problems to have.
I think the next few days will be key as to Trump’s level of radioactivity, as well as the election itself. Trump can lose badly enough for the voters to abandon him, the way they abandoned McCain and Romney.
Also, Trump at this point is a joke. A clown. Liberals love Trump, because Trump makes conservatives look stupid. That won’t sit well with the base. They can’t abide a loser who can’t even make liberals mad.
The only question is who will betray each other first, Breitbart or Trump. The conspiracy in Infowars will be that Clinton paid Trump to ruin the GOP as an agent provocateur, and he accepted.
The media will also jump in to right the ship for Republicans, declaring Trump a “fraud” and an “aberration.” They can’t function in a three party system. They’re already trying to fluff Ryan and other “principled conservatives.”
I think this is one possibility I don’t bring up often.
Assuming Strongman Trump loses spectacularly, he’ll not only fail in becoming President, but will fail in taking over the Republican party.
The one thing conservatives hate more than libruuls is being pathetic losers. If Trump loses as bad as he could lose, I think Republicans use their cognitive dissonance and projection to treat Trump like Bush Jr.
I read somewhere that Trump is actively looking for big investors for his new media network. Someone with deep capital reserves and experience in media.
– – Crickets – –
But might it happen that following Trump’s HUGE fail, the base that supported him will abandon him to a significant degree? I never thought he was such a great champion for these radicals.
My take is that they love him because he speaks their language (like a fourth grader) about things that they care about (found on the Internet). I’m betting his disastrous run is shrouded in alt-right hagiography for years to come as his career follows Palin’s into obscurity. These people live in a bubble of untruths.
Getting ready for the post-election party, I have switched from Champagne to Asti Spumante
https://psmag.com/the-italianization-of-american-politics-and-why-it-terrifies-italians-bb6aa88529d4
#.2nspryryp
How to explain charisma of this captivating fellow
He plays the Media like it is a fine Italian cello
All this time, I thought the Trumpeting was strictly New York homegrown
But now I see the root of it may very well be Romegrown
Berlusconi set the standard Mr. Trump has now exceeded
And if being more Italianate is the the aura that is needed
Il Donalde will restore us to the glory that we crave
As Il Duce led Italia from the cradle to the grave
Soon, everyone will grab that voting lever, and then pull it
And we’ll find out if we have dodged the Berlusconi Bullet
Well we ARE modern Rome both in effect and in that our ideals might be Greek but our structures are Roman.
Even the Romans’ ideals were Greek. We build with brick, not marble. So Roman.
Empire moves west and adopts the culture of the east.
So what’s in it for us, this interfactional fight? I know its fascinating to watch Joe Moneybags fight Holly Roller fight Sam Flagdresser fight Lt. Col. Deplorable, but is there anything in that fight for the Dems? My party has a future, too and it would be nice, say, to not have to deal with crushing defeats every two years. What happes to the Dems after the election?
Nothing. They become Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins republicans.
Booman–I’m confused how the analysis here fits with your suggestion that a de facto coalition in the House of Representatives–consisting of Democrats plus Republicans who don’t want to blow up the government–is likely to form. I mean, aren’t you saying here that that group of Republicans is going to be running scared of primary challenges?
Yeah, that’s exactly what I’m saying. That’s why they’ll eat their speakers alive until finally one arises that is willing to grab a couple dozen sane people and caucus with the Dems.
But Boehner seems to be making out alright.
So if going over to the Dems means running against a Tea party candidate in next election (either in the primary or the General election, depending on if they switch party or merely collaborate) in a gerrymandered Republican district, isn’t it better to grab the gavel, do the Boehner and in the end pass a budget and then cash in?
And it’s just one budget a year, so they just need a handful of money Republicans to keep it going.
For the moneyed interests controlling the centre of legislation from both sides must be better than just betting on one side.
OK, confused. “Tea Party faction doesn’t have any money… And the social conservatives are basically defeated…”
What is the designation for all those relatively- wealthy white male racists that everyone insists is the base? Tea Party or social conservatives?
If you think moar Republicans are a good problem for our Chuck Schumaer Dems to have….whao!
And this is the moment to tell Money: You have no options. We OWN you.
Then we ignore them utterly because there is no other game in town. Making nice to them will avail NOTHING.
Isn’t it pretty to think so?
now get real. Money talks. Politicians crawl.
Well of course it does, but is this case if what Booman wrote is correct that the republicans CANT implement Money’s policy, then Dems don’t have to. They will, but hey being progressive means permanent Cassandra status. Price of admission.
Anyone remember back in the day when the Tea Party astroturf rain-makers bought thounsands of copies of Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals?
Can’t put that back in the horse, apparently. The ghost of comrade Alinsky is no doubt wryly amused; revenge bone cold with a nice, crisp white wine.
Are you saying that come 2017 President Clinton will need to cultivate voters instead of donors?
How will that work in the way she pushes the Congress?
And what does that mean for the first hundred days?
You’ve got to be kidding:
Modern reality gibberish for ‘dumpster fire.’
Makeover into what? They needed the deplorables because their policies are not popular enough to stand on their own. I don’t see where this leaves them anywhere to go other than changing their policies and working with the Dems. I seriously doubt they will until they lose both the house and the senate.
Game over, no replays.
Is Markos going to trot out the GOP dinasaour from 2009.
Dissecting polls like these 3 weeks out strikes me as at best misguided and at worst just plain silly.
Losing politicians don’t get revived.
A story about this. At the ’96 Democratic National Convention I was at a Party. Some big names where there – Kennedy for example.
Off in the the corner in a Hawaiian shirt was this familiar guy. No one else was talking to him. So I walked up to him.
It was Michael Dukakis.
No one would talk to him.
Literally.
This is the fate of Presidential candidates who lose winnable elections.
This factions stuff is nonsense. The overlap between these groups is considerable.
I get Booman is obsessed the business types will leave the GOP.
He is dreaming.