Update: 11/1
ABC shows a Trump lead in 4 way, Clinton 1 point lead in 2 way. IBD shows 1 point Clinton lead in both.
The state polling, which contains a ton or right wing polling, is ambiguous, but does suggest tightening:
Virginia, Washinton Post, 10/27-30: Clinton +6, suggests movement
Michigan: Mitchell, Clinton +6, no movement in prior week.
NH – UNH, 10/26-30, Clinton +7 on 10/17 they should a 15 point lead
PA – Franklin and Marshall – Clinton +11, shows no tightening.
All these polls completed 10/30, and should include data consistent in Time with the ABC polling.
There is other polling from Remington and Emerson suggesting a path to a Trump win. I don’t believe either pollster, but the possibility cannot no longer be dismissed.
Right now this race looks far more like 2004 and 2012. And that should scare the shit out of everyone. I still see no real path for Trump, but the national polls are showing a third party collapse benefiting Trump that hasn’t shown up in the state polling.
So can we stop talking about fucking Utah? I still think this race breaks late for Clinton, and the early voting from Nevada and NC looks good.
But if you are writing about Utah right now you are clueless and I have difficulty taking you seriously.
Update: 10/31 at 8:34
No real evidence that the e-mail stuff has had an impact, The race was closing before that. No way to sugar coat the national numbers, which are pretty close. The state numbers, even from Gravis, still show no path for Trump. But it takes a while for the state numbers to catch up. The Florida polling, and the GA poll suggest GOP voters are coming home not unlike Dem voters came home for Dukakis in ’88.
So I am going to use this diary to keep track of the most recent polls. In many ways we are flying blind – there isn’t a huge release of data post 10/26 four days ago.
Before I post the numbers, I want to link to something I published in 2008 entitled “adventures in tracking polls” At the time I reviewed the history of Gallup tracking polls – which produced large swings that make no sense.
So I caution – what we have seen in ABC we have seen before in other cycles. Do not assume the large swings are real. I would much rather have this confirmed by state polling.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/8/590987/-
One other point – be careful to look for the dates – both length of the poll and last date.
So there really is no way to sugar coat this this morning. IBD and ABC have it as Clinton +1. Mourning Consult has it as Clinton +3.
So Here goes:
Mourning Consult – 10/29-30: Clinton +3 in both 2 and 4 way.
ABC – 10/25 – 28: Clinton +1 4 way, +3 2 way
ABC – 10/26 – 29 – Clinton +1 4 way, +2 2 way
IBD – 10/24 – 29: Clinton +2 4 way, +5 2 way
IBD – 10/25-31: Clinton +2 2 way, +1 4 way
These are VERY good pollsters. We have only 1 day of data post e-mail disclosure
Florida (25-27): Seina/NYT: Trump +4, Trump +3 2 way
This is the worst number I have seen in a while. The Siena polling is being done off the VAN – and should be much better at identifying likely voters. Recent early voting from Florida shows a jump in turnout in the panhandle – which is Trump land. Still may be an outlier.
PA: Morning Call (20-26) – Clinton +6
If the race has really closed in the last 5 days, this number may be a little dated. Nonetheless, if Trump is able to carry OH and Florida, then PA becomes the last hill Trump needs to climb. This is still a good lead
Emerson – they call only landlines, and as a result may miss the Dem vote. The dates are 25-26, which is when the race closed (if it did). A bad pollster, but in general these numbers do not show a path for Trump.
FL
PA +5
OH – tie
NV +6 (consistent with early voting numbers)
NC +3
MN (22=25) – SUSA – Clinton +10 – I like this number because it suggests little reason to worry about WI and MI. Still a little old.
Marist (Place holder – data to be released at 9)
Florida – (25-26) Clinton +1 4 way, tied 2 way
NC (25-26) Clinton +6 !!!
Alaska – Cranium 20-26 – Clinton +4 (that is fun)
Yougov, all 26-28, Internet Pollster but with a decent record
AZ Trump +2
NC Clinton +3
CO Clinton +3
PA Clinton +8
Bad colorado number. Still no path for Trump in that set. IF Clinton wins NC, VA and PA then even if Trump carries Fl, OH, AND CO it isn’t enough.
Maine” Clinton +11, 10/20-25. Really not that great of a number.
Gravis, 10/27, FL Clinton +1
Gravis, 10/25-26, NC, Clinton +2
GA – SUSA – 10/25/-27 – Trump +7. Evidence GOP voters are coming home?
From the Siena write up:
“Mrs. Clinton also had a challenge with black turnout. Voters who indicated on their voter registration form that they were black made up 12.7 percent of the likely electorate, down from 13.9 percent in 2012. Our North Carolina survey also showed the black share of the electorate dipping by about one point lower than 2012 levels. It’s a pattern that’s consistent with the initial early voting data, which shows lower black turnout than in 2012.”
I have worried a bit about black voter enthusiasm. Siena is the only pollster working off of voter registration lists. So what they are capturing here is unique.
If the fall to 2014 levels, what then?
Disaster. She loses.
Right now NC looks like a wall Trump cannot overcome.
Interesting NC has moved and FL and OH have not from ’12.
Via Marist 35% have voted in Florida and 29% in North Carolina.
It does look like she’s put NC away.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
It looks like she’s put NV away too.
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
And she’s still up 7.7 in VA.
With those three, she only needs PA or WI+CO to clinch.
After the 2016 NV caucuses (through the country round), Ralston doesn’t have much credibility IMO.
PA, CO, and VA have continuously been in HRC’s column; so no reason to project that they’ll shift at the last minute. Technically, NV doesn’t matter because it’s either WI or NC that gets her to 270.
If we take PA, CO, and VA off the table, WI doesn’t completely shut the door. In theory, Trump could send it to the House by winning FL, NC, NH, and NV.
Trump’s not going to carry NH.
Every year we hear retailers getting all jazzed about Christmas sales from the results of “black Friday” and “black Monday.” And yet all those results mean is that people shopped early to take advantage of some bargains without changing what they would have spent if they shopped later.
Give Trump OH and IA, where he currently leads. Give him NC, even though 538 currently has his winning chances there at 35.9%. Then let’s give him NV, where he’s at 35.2%. Let’s even give him FL too, where he’s at 34.9%
He still has to win NH to keep Hillary from 270 – and there he’s at 18.7%.
Good analysis.
I wouldn’t read MI and WI from MN. Both have Republican governors and legislatures desperate to stay in power and voter suppression operations within laws that are not completely overturned.
NC has an unpopular governor and legislature (we hope). And a popular and known challenger in Roy Cooper.
Early voting is a hard read because the party identification on mail-in ballots might not be aligned with women Republican voters or even some men Democratic voters.
Thanks for the update about the hiatus in polling. That explains why 538’s model seemed to be going into a random walk. Nebraska’s Omaha district has been especially volatile, switching back and forth between Clinton and Trump.
For the moment, NC and GA seem to be the respective firewalls. Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona seem to be the battleground states.
Looking at the 538 plot of 10,000 runs is very interesting in how they depart from normality. The quantum-like nature of the electoral vote is part of that breakup of pattern IMO. But the mode still is around 360 electoral votes. But the probabilities of all results lower than that have become more equal and the probabilities of the results more that that figure have become less equal, forming a short tail. The Trump side is still a long tail.
The worry is a systemic polling failure. It is why a 3 point lead and a 6 point lead are so different.
There are multiple instances of a 3 point miss in one direction. The odds of it are about 40%. So if everything moves in Trump’s direction 3 points and the current lead is 3 suddenly you are in a nightmare, because the state numbers will move in tandem.
I really think the right way to track the race is with a cheat sheet that I posted earlier.
In a 3 point shift OH, IA and FL are gone. The question would be what else is in play.