A quick list:
Wisconsin, Marquette (gold standard) Clinton +6
Almost certainly in Clinton’s column
PA: CNN +4, Mommouth +4, Susquehanna +2 (GOP pollster), Quin +5
Closer than ’12, again can’t see Trump winning
AZ: CNN Trump +5,Emerson T +4 not a surprise, slipping away
NV; CNN Trump +6,contradicts some EV reads
FL, CNN Clinton +2, Quin Cl +1obviously a Trump must win.
NC, SUSA, Trump +7, probably an oulier. Quin CL +3
OH, Quin Trump +5
VA, Emerson CL+4, after WAPO yesterday had it +5
And then there is CO: Emerson CL +3
On these numbers the fight is in:
FL
NC
CO
NV
If Trump wins them all he wins, period.
So once again, in a close election the tipping point state is likely to be Colorado.
The battleground has shrunk, mostly to Clinton’s advantage.
I had an old friend for the LGBT wars tell me she knew we were going to win, but how we were winning and the margin was breaking her heart.
And I agree.
And if he loses any of them, he loses.
FL, NC, and NV are currently coin flips. In CO, his odds are 1-in-4.
That makes the odds of a successful parlay 1-in-32.
I can live with that.
If he wins all of them but NV, it would go to the House. Otherwise, you’re correct.
That is the flaw – the states will likely move in tandem.
” … FL, NC, and NV are currently coin flips. In CO, his odds are 1-in-4. … ”
Bias here seems toward pessimism …
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
It’s what Democrats do in every presidential election. Intense fretting for months. Doesn’t matter if all the signs point to a win or a lose. It’s sort of like a version of praying — if they fret enough, they’ll get the election outcome they want.
I’ve mostly ignored the polls in the past month. Have left:
CO, PA, VA, and WI in HRC’s column
AZ, FL, OH, and NC in Trump’s column
NV – outcome limited to HRC or DJT
NM – is the dicey one as it could go to either HRC or Johnson. Can’t see a possible win for DJT in NM. If it remains blue, then NV is irrelevant and HRC is POTUS. If it goes to Johnson, then NV becomes the decider with outcomes limited to HRC is POTUS or it goes to the House.
Based on where Clinton, her surrogates, and spending have focused of late, it appears to me that their analysis indicates that they are confident that they have it in the bag and are now focused on adding extra EC votes. Suggests to me that CO, NM, and WI aren’t in doubt and FL, NC, and NV would be nice gets but aren’t essential.
Trump, to the extent that there’s any method to his madness at all, appears to be in search of Rove’s millions of missing white voters. (Wonder if he’s less ignorant about the EC than he is about Gold State Mothers?) His problem is if they exist at all, most would be in solid red states. Would those red state 2012 white non-voters find more reason to vote this time than they did 2012 (or 2004 for that matter)? A possibility. As for those that could be lurking in FL, NC, and NV, their numbers have to exceed those that voted for Mitt and will not vote for him, but even if he accomplishes that, he will still fall short on EC votes. However, if the “missing” aren’t fictional and every last one shows up for DJT, he could win the popular vote. Something that he’d take great pride in and also file a lawsuit bc for him it would mean that he was cheated. That wouldn’t change the outcome of the 2016 election, but it give impetus to junk the EC through a constitutional amendment.
The travel schedule is here:
Both candidates are very focused on NC and FL because of early voting. Clinton in particular has spent days in Florida.
As in 3 of the past 6 days.
There isn’t much action in Ohio – which looks gone.
Clinton is in AZ today – so maybe her numbers show something.
Basically her game is increase the number of permutations that can let her win. Trump is pretty simple: hold NC and FL and find a blue wall state to flip.
To win he needs CO, PA, Va or NV, IA and NH.
This hasn’t changed.
I know that you’ve been concerned about CO for some time and I respect your observations. However, there are reasons why I don’t share that concern:
All of that also applies to NV. But the casino industry and its money may tip the balance in favor of one east coaster over the other. Even though Obama’s 2012 margin in NV was seven points and only five points in CO. If it does, my guess is that it will be by a very slim margin.
Josh Marshall is heartened by the Marquette WI poll.
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/02/disappointment-new-poll-wisconsin-clinton-still-leading-six/
WI was a great poll – a sigh of relief.
The most vulnerable of the blue wall is CO – where the polling is sparse. Then PA.
Though there is a poll showing Trump ahead in VA.
Nate Silver’s model. Distribution spikes at 280, 290, 330, 360 electoral votes. Everything between 280 and 360 is roughly equal probability. It’s not at all nailed down yet; the polls are all over the place, apparently. Poor central tendency.
Clinton’s defense should be Flordia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire; offense should be Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Texas.
A tease through Dodge City, Wichita, Scotts Bluff, Lincoln, Omaha would be a good ending. How many times have they had a campaigning Presidential candidate who is a Democrat?
Trump is likely not the worry, but the downticket could be a bit hosed except were local issues (like in NC) overwhelm the national linkage.
thanks for diary