Like half of America and most of the world I’m still in utter shock. Writing this to put some words down to sort things out.
I’ve been reading a lot of people dealing with their grief by saying we need to “keep fighting” to “win the next election” and so on. I very much appreciate the spirit behind that. But I can’t see how that isn’t a lost cause.
We just elected someone who flagrantly violated every norm in the book. From treatment of media and protesters to refusing to fund GOTV to refusing to pander for newspaper endorsements to insulting almost everyone in his own party. And, guess what, they all meekly accepted his insults and got into line behind him.
It’s been nearly 200 years since a President said, of a SCOTUS decision, “They’ve made their ruling, now let them enforce it”, but if the Trump SCOTUS ever gets up the nerve to counter him you can be that’s how he’ll react – and guess what, everyone will get into line behind him and accept the transgression.
There is no one in power who will stand up to Trump. None. Watch how they’ve behaved. Then consider his probable cabinet. Gingrich for SoS. Giuliani for AG. Other men who have broken rules wherever they went.
This is serious. There will be elections, of course, but like in Russia there will be zero chance of a ruling party loss. What North Carolina enacted to suppress the vote will in retrospect be seen as minor compared to what will be enacted. Don’t be surprised if they openly disregard the 24th amendment – and the right wing SCOTUS will of course approve because they are used to inventing rationales to ignore amendments, such as the 15th. Any and all legal challenges will fail.
As of course will appeals to the media. This isn’t the same media that intentionally suppressed all coverage of the protests at the 2000 inauguration – they are far worse. Everything Trump does will soon be treated as normal, just as it has for the past year.
The only thing the Democrats have left as a check is the filibuster, and that is at the whim of the Republican Senate. We are used to thinking that the GOP will keep what’s left of the filibuster so that they’ll have it for when they are in the minority and also because it allows them to not pass certain bills that they don’t really want but their base wants. But the rules are different now. Imagine saying to President Trump: “We can’t get the bill through that you want because of the Filibuster.” Now remember how he has tantrums and the GOP leadership quickly gets into line. No, that check will soon be useless too.
There is no branch of the administration that won’t be openly abused – and there will be nothing we can do about it.
Here’s a partial list of conservative policies that will be enacted in the first year. This is based on their own actions in Congress, in states where the GOP has held all branches of government, and their own policy positions (not the party platform, per se, which has a lot of nonsense in it for effect, but the policy papers they care about).
- Repeal ACA. No replacement of course. It will be all free market health care.
- (Possible) convert Medicare to a voucher program for those under age 55. This is one of Ryan’s babies and part of every budget the House has passed for years prior to the conference.
- End of funding for Planned Parenthood.
- Vote suppression laws (as noted above)
- Executive actions reversing all EPA anti-global warming regulations.
- Reduction or elimination of EPA. Reduction of OSHA, FTC, FDA, EEOC, and any other agency or department that annoys Republican corporations.
- Approval of all pipelines, fracking, drilling on public lands including national parks and wilderness areas, off-shore drilling, and any other activities that have been restricted due to pollution concerns.
- Transfer of federal lands to states and, ultimately, private individuals. In many or most cases this will be done below market value to preferred GOP supporters. Good chance the Antiquities Act is gutted.
- Withdrawal from all climate change international agreements.
- Gutting of all laws promoting clean energy technologies, except some subsidies to Republican firms.
- Passing of many “Blue Lives Matter” laws to make it more difficult to investigate and document power abuses by police.
- End of Roe v. Wade. The Republicans will no longer need this unfulfilled promise as a carrot to get their people to vote.
- Reduction or elimination of inheritance taxes, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, etc. Increase in taxes for those in lower tax brackets, but not via rate changes but instead elimination of credits and the like.
- Slashing or elimination of programs to assist the poor, with cuts targeted at the minority community.
- Slashing of funds supplementing college education except subsidized loans where the beneficiaries are loaners who are large Republican donors.
- Social security cuts for those not yet receiving social security. Very good chance a form of privatization passes.
- Reduction in the number of gun control measures that are still on the books.
- Possible rollbacks of Gay Marriage. Definite rollbacks in LGBT advancements.
- The first laws restricting free speech and press in some situations. These will likely be added to later.
- Removal of remaining campaign finance barriers and reporting requirements.
On a foreign policy front it may get even uglier. In this case we can’t rely on existing state legislation or much in the way of Congressional legislation, and Trump’s own statements were little more than random. However, there are policies that Trump’s advisers and the leaders in the GOP think tanks advocate.
- End of agreement with Iran, return to sanctions
- Alignment with Russia on middle eastern conquest – impossible to predict how this ends up but there is no possible good outcome
- Carte Blanche support of Israel
- Beyond that really hard to say. I predict a lot of informal alliances with the hard right elements in various countries and possibly some bilateral agreements.
The US is going to be a very difficult place to live for the indefinite future. I haven’t touched on the economic impacts but it doesn’t look good. Authoritarian behavior and Bullying will almost certainly increase dramatically throughout the country. There will probably be a lot of emigration out of the US, primarily from the most educated, and that brain drain will also hurt business. Foreign investment in the US is likely to plummet due to the uncertainty.
