So we have been beaten about the head and face with the RURAL explanation. In truth there is not one explanation, but many for the loss.
One that you could see coming was the youth vote. Clinton did terribly among the young in the primaries, and I was concerned for months. When I looked at the polling cross-tabs I thought it likely the youth vote would break for Clinton because they hated Trump, and as a result Clinton’s number would go up late.
In the battleground states the opposite happened.
The declines in the youth vote are stunning. Had Clinton held Obama’s margin she would have won Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The decline in the youth vote played a key role in making both New Hampshire and Maine close.
Race plays a role here: about half of the change in the margins is explained by the different shares of the White Vote (the R squared is .58)
Oh – and man is the AZ poll wrong. But which one? 2012 or 2016?
