A senate simulation based on cook ratings is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y0QQ5KiJ23wbNUh0Z91w5BNVvv7ejOX7Tl6zBlMyEDo/edit#gid=0
The model is based on the following:
Lean: 65% chance of winning
Likely: 80%
This is optimistic in my opinion based on the seats in play. I will be making changes to it over time. You should be able to edit the probabilities.
