Over the weekend, the South American nation of Ecuador held its elections for President. The two front-runners were Lenin Moreno, Rafael Correa’s chosen successor, and Guillermo Lasso who is one of the standard bearers for the right-leaning opposition. Had one of these candidates been able to achieve a plurality of 40% of the vote and a 10% lead against the second place opponent, this election would already be over. Instead, it appears voters will show up again at the polls for a run-off election in April, as Moreno just barely missed the 40% threshold.
What happens next? There does appear to be some disillusionment with the Correa government. Correa came to power about a decade ago as part of the Pink Tide of leftist and left-leaning governments that was swept into power over a decade ago in South and Central America. That tide has ebbed in recent years, as is evident in Brazil, Peru, and elsewhere in the region. The current ruling government in Ecuador has been rocked by economic recession, due to the oil glut that brought down the price of one of its main exports, as well as the occasional corruption scandal. However, although the opposition will likely coalesce around Lasso’s candidacy, Lasso’s ties to corruption over a decade and a half ago still appear to haunt him.

No polling has been done yet that I am aware of. Presumably this will be a tight election. A writer at the Guardian speculated that Moreno’s ceiling was 40%, and that he would likely lose the run-off by a wide margin. However, that speculation was not backed up by any hard data. A Lasso victory would certainly mean a return to a more conservative economic regimen in Ecuador. It would also mean that Julian Assange, who has been staying at the Ecuadorian Embassy in the UK would finally be evicted, perhaps finally facing an outstanding “lesser degree rape” charge in Sweden. It is not clear that a Moreno victory would guarantee Assange’s continued asylum. In any event, I get the impression that Assange is increasingly viewed in Ecuador as a liability rather than an asset.

So, stay tuned. In a couple months, we’ll have some idea of the extent to which the Pink Tide is ebbing. Regardless, some changes are coming to Ecuador.