I built a simulation of the UK election.
The UK has AWESOME election statistics!! Far better than the US.
Here is the projection (I am still working out a bug on the Irish seats – in 2015 none of the major parties won a seat in Northern Ireland).
Projected UK Parliament: collapse of UK IP will hand the Tories a huge majority. Simulation here:https://t.co/efnquD1y4T pic.twitter.com/TQM1vIR04F
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) May 13, 2017
The story here is the collapse of the UK Independence Party, and the boost it is giving the Tories.
The rise of the SNP essentially makes it impossible for Labour to win a majority on their own, and effectively splits the left (since the SNP is certainly a left of center party as well).
The lastest 3 polls show a marginal uptick for labor.
In the YouGov poll this morning May had a 53-36 Job approval rating.
Corbyn’s numbers are Bush Junior bad. Among LABOUR voters his approval rating is 38-50. In Scotland, once a Labour stronghold, his numbers are 15-75. In the whole of the country his numbers are 21-63, an improvement over two weeks ago when they were 15-67.
As of this morning it would take a 6 point swing from Conservative to Labour to deny the Conservatives a majority government.
My numbers may be underestimating Conservative improvement in Scotland.
Yougov has Scotland as follows: SNP 41, Conservatives 33, Labour 15. Essentially as Frank has suggested, the Conservatives have become the pro-UK party in Scotland.
