For the moment, the House is in play

For the moment, the House is in play:

This model is based on two rules:

1. Add the predicted swing to the 2016 results.                 
2.  If the seat is open, use Presidential Results

There are two reasons this is too conservative:

1.  It assumes the power of incumbency in 2016 will be as strong as 2018.  In wave elections this is not true.
2.  There aren’t many retirements yet.  As this number grows it is likely to put more seats in play.

The last 4 Generic Ballot numbers all show Democratic movement.  Morning Consult and Yougov both moved 2 points towards the Democrats in the week of May 14th from the week of May 7th.

Obviously a long way to go.