UK Election: Labour closing, May statement about police cuts

With polls closing some news from the UK. A note on the stories: while I have some knowledge of UK politics I do not follow it closely enough to understand the background for some of the claims and counter claims.

The Conservatives are attacking Corbyn for past associations with the IRA. That the exchanges are for the moment dominating the press is hardly good news for Corbyn.

The Guardian has a good take on Corbyn’s speech on Manchester, and the campaign

Two weeks ago, when the Supreme Leader informed the country there was a realistic chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, everyone dismissed the idea as scaremongering. It now turns out she was acting on insider information.

Only she knew just how mediocre she really was and that her mediocrity would be inevitably found out. Only she knew that she was planning to release a totally uncosted manifesto with policies that would have to be ditched before the election even took place. Only she knew that she was strong and stable enough to turn a 24 point lead in the polls into a mere five.

With Tory candidates hastily erasing the Supreme Leader from their campaign leaflets and Labour candidates having to backtrack a little on their promise that it was OK for people to vote for them as there was no chance of them winning the election, Corbyn chose to resume campaigning after the Manchester bombing with a speech in central London on national security.

This comes after a series of attacks by Labour on May for cutting local police support. See the video below.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of a race that has tighten very quickly, and very surprisingly. The change in subject isn’t good news for Labour generally, as the following from YouGov shows:

Will keep Britain safe from terrorism”
% Net trust

Theresa May +25
Amber Rudd -16
Jeremy Corbyn -18
Diane Abbott -53

Footage of May defending police cuts.

The only poll taken since the event in Manchester shows a remade race.  The projection below is based on the YouGov.  If YouGov is right the Conservatives may not be able to get to a majority government.

The collapse of UK IP had pushed the Conservatives to the mid-40’s.  At the start of the campaign Labour was below their 2015 number, and Corbyn’s personal numbers were terrible.

The start of Labour’s recover goes back to 2 weeks ago.  The Conservative Manifesto, which included a provision that would hit retirees backfired, and as a result the Conservatives have dropped from the high 40’s to the low 40’s.  Conversely, Labour’s recover has been remarkable.  If Yougov is right, they are now 8 points above their showing in 2015, and 2 points above their showing in 2010.