Okay folks in the Pond: Don’t forget that the Senate is supposed to vote on a motion to proceed on the wealthcare bills as soon as tomorrow (July 25). I’ve been phoning my Senators. Hopefully you all have done so as well.
Here’s where things stand. One, the Senators themselves have no idea on what they will be voting for this week. There is something strange about holding a vote for legislation that would have such a profound and profoundly negative effect on so many Americans, and not knowing what will actually be considered. Will it be repeal and delay? Will it be repeal and replace? Who knows. But a motion to proceed apparently will occur anyway.
We do know that the repeal and replace bill will require quite a few bribes to get so-called moderates on board, although it is perverse that the bill, if passed, would require a considerable (yet inadequate) sum of money to partially repair the damage caused to lives and livelihoods. So the idea is to make things worse, and not really do much to clean up the mess left in their wake.
If you wonder how this all might play out, here’s a handy flow chart.
I honestly have no idea how things will end. I think the prevailing belief is that these awful bills will eventually die. I want to believe that. I am still sticking with my hunch that it’s really a coin toss as to whether this thing passes or fails. I hope it fails, not just for my own personal reasons, but also for the interest of our nation.
I can say that my Senators’ staffers have not been especially excited to have to deal with phone calls like mine, but they have politely taken down my details. I keep persisting because their offices need to be reminded that they do have constituents who do not approve of these bills. We appear to be in the majority, even in my own red state.
Don’t wreck the place. Pester your Senators instead.
A little about the stakes: There is evidence that since the ACA went into effect, one important set of outcomes has to do with low-income folks. Especially noteworthy is that there has been a reduction in unpaid medical debt and an increase in financial satisfaction among folks who make up this demographic. I’ve some personal experience being low income. It’s a grind, to put it mildly. Any medical emergency comes up, and especially during the bad old days, you’re screwed. Lived that dream too. The article makes it clear that Medicaid expansion is beneficial – maybe not a cure-all for those in or near poverty, but a plus nonetheless. I am hoping it is still safe after this week is said and done.
Vote today on motion to proceed – looks like they have the votes.
That’s what I was worried about. Saw way too much celebrating from our side last week.
This appears to be the gist of what will go on this afternoon in the Senate, from Axios. Whatever occurs is likely to be chaotic, but I would not rule out a successful vote on a motion to proceed. The McConnell has probably found his 50 who will go that far. Who knows what will happen afterwards, but the odds of something getting passed goes up. Matthew Yglesias at Vox has been using the metaphor of the hot potato since the start of the process early this spring, to explain why there is a high enough risk of an ACA repeal succeeding. This is the time to keep our eyes on the ball. I made my calls this morning. I hope the rest of you have too.
Correction: I should attribute the hot potato metaphor to Ezra Klein. That’s what I get for multitasking.
If motion to proceed fails that means McConnell can’t control his caucus even to the extent of controlling the agenda! In the UK that would be a vote of no confidence. He’ll almost certainly get his motion or he won’t offer it. Or he’s playing some more devious game.
The motion to proceed passed. He does have at least that much control of his caucus. I would not underestimate his deviousness either. The so-called “skinny repeal” that apparently will be offered up for a vote can be looked at in that light, I would guess.
Oh yeah! The mandate is what angers their voter base most. I don’t like it myself and said so here at the time. I also know that the whole jerry-built structure of Obamacare depends on it. So they can kill two birds with one stone. They get rid of the most hated part and they ensure Obamacare’s eventual collapse with minimum fingerprints. When it collapses, they can say, “See! We told you it wouldn’t work!”
Only the extreme anti-government philosophy blocks them from what would be the most advantageous HealthCare Plan for the insurance companies: Medicare-For-All complete with the present system of Part C and supplements. You don’t see all those United Healthcare ads on TV because they are unprofitable, right? They skim the gravy and Uncle Sam gets the big bills. Hospitals and doctors might not like it because of reduced fees, but very few doctors opt out of Medicare because the payments are prompt and dependable. The other side of medical bankruptcy is a provider that isn’t paid. So what’s their choice? Big bills that aren’t collected or smaller bills that are paid monthly from the one payee that can’t go broke? Bird in the hand, baby, bird in the hand. Until Uncle sam gets cute like Illinois (and others) who decide to balance the budget by arbitrarily cutting Medicaid reimbursements. That’s the problem with Medicare-for-all. It’s a monopsony. In countries like Germany and Denmark with a strong social bias in their culture, it works. But the USA has a culture of “Screw you! I’ve got the power and I’m using it to crush everyone weaker!” That’s why German unions and management cooperate for the good of all and American unions and management are hell bent on domination and confrontation.
Add Japanese unions to German unions.
Glad to see this is still getting some recommendations. As of now, we’ve seen two votes fail in the Senate. The final outcome appears to be something of a shell bill, dubbed “skinny repeal” that will be used as a Trojan Horse. Expect further mischief in conference committee if that indeed is the product that passes. If you’re in a state where any of the supposed moderate GOP Senators reside, pester the hell out of them. They need to know that there is no place for them to hide.
And call everyone you know in a State with a Senator in the Republican Caucus and get them to call their Senators as well. Now is the time. The final, most important vote in this process will take place sometime late Thursday night or Friday morning.
The only family members I have with a Republican Senator is my daughter in Alabama. She has called their offices, but she also knows she has a snowball’s chance in Hell. I’m in Illinois and I have a grandson on the West Coast. His Senators are Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. Do they really need a call? Or is it something to do and feel good about? As I mentioned in another post, My senior Senator doesn’t care if I’m employed or even if I live or die. Calling his office would just get me on the sucker’s list for donation. LET HIM DO HIS FUCKING JOB WITHOUT OUR HAVING TO BEG HIM!
I don’t beg any of these folks. I go into any phone calling encounter assuming the Senators and staffers from my state don’t give a lick about my well-being, nor know me from Adam. My sole reason for doing any of it is to serve as a reminder that there are constituents in their state who oppose this particular travesty. The more of us do that, or engage in any other actions available, the better. Pressure from below periodically makes a difference. I’m just one of many points of pressure.
Our Democratic Senators wanted a preliminary analysis from the CBO regarding the impact of the rumored Skinny Repeal bill (as of yet we have not actually seen any legislation, as it is still shrouded in mystery by Yertle the Turtle). The results are not pretty. This scenario estimates about 16 million people uninsured who would otherwise have coverage if ACA remains as is. However we look at it, the GOP’s efforts to repeal the ACA have been one huge clusterf*ck and if passed would be one huge clusterf*ck for the American people. This is why I pester my Senators.
If I can swim against the stream just a little way, how many of those 16 million are smug young well people voluntarily skipping insurance that they could pay for?
Honestly don’t know how many young people might be part of that estimate. Bottom line is a lot of folks who are already at a marginal income level will be effectively priced out of coverage. That’s not going to sit well with me.
Me too. I was just wondering what percentage of the number were voluntary and what percentage were involuntary. Just looking for data.
I’d certainly be cool with someone with a lot more expertise than me coming in to this conversation and offer some data – with links to articles/papers/etc. Thankfully, for now the proverbial bullet seems to have been dodged.
I don’t have enough to say yet to create another standalone diary, but Axios has done fantastic work covering the progress of the various repeal efforts, including giving us the skinny on the so called skinny repeal that apparently has been drafted during a lunch break, of all things (according to other sources I was reading). FiveThirtyEight’s live blog is also worth your while to get up to date. Just a personal thought: If I had ever tried to write a major essay while I was in school (either k-12 or college) on the spot during a lunch break, the end result would have been catastrophic – at least for my GPA if nothing else. At least I wouldn’t have been playing with other people’s lives. And yet, this is what passes for Senate leadership these days. Sad. We should all be disgusted. In the meantime, I made my calls to my Senators if for no other reason than give their respective staff a reminder that there are living, breathing human beings in their state who do not want any form of repeal. I often talk about our own medical experiences, and how devastating the pre-ACA experiences had been. Sometimes a staffer will acknowledge that there are probably others who feel as I do – and I reply back with something along the lines of that I know there are. May or may not make much difference in how these Senators vote, but sometimes all you can do is try.